CESR Events

Monday, December 2, 2024

12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Abstract: We examine nationwide causal effects of school choice on student’s outcomes and trajectories by exploiting the randomness of the allocation Deferred Acceptance Algorithm of the centralized school allocation system to fill the vacancies in each Bicentennial school that is over subscripted and using rich administrative and longitudinal data. This generates two groups (treatment and control) which are equal except by the School Admission System (SAS) result. This allow us to come close to an idealized social random experiment. The Deferred Acceptance Algorithm generates a student-school allocation considering student preferences and school capacities that assigns each student to the highest plausible preference conditional on special priorities and vacancies at schools. Prelaminar results find both positive and negative significant impacts depending on the academic outcome evaluated when estimating the impact of being selected at a first-choice Bicentennial school, with differing results depending on whether the education is Regular or Vocational. Meanwhile, the impact of enrolling in those first-choice assigned Bicentennial schools shows in average non-significant academic results.

Bio: Pamela Jervis is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Chile. Her primary fields are household behaviour, human capital accumulation and policy evaluation. Her research focuses on designing, implementing and evaluating mainly large-scale randomized field studies to test policies, programs and interventions focused on parental and/or teachers’ behavior change to improve lack of stimulation and children’s outcomes, and to reduce socioeconomic gaps primarily in low-and middle-income countries.

Monday, December 9, 2024

12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Abstract: It has long been established that if a panel dataset suffers from attrition, auxiliary (refreshment) sampling may restore full identification under semiparametric assumptions on the attrition process that are significantly weaker than selection on observables. Despite their generality, these identification strategies have not gained wide applicability in empirical research due to the complexity of induced estimation and inference procedures. We show that this is nevertheless possible and suggest a computationally attractive two-step estimator employing the iterative proportional fitting (raking) algorithm. We derive the influence function of this estimator and show that it depends on a nonparametric additive regression, which can be computed efficiently using the well-studied smooth backfitting algorithm. This further leads to a Neyman-orthogonal (debiased) estimator and a procedure for asymptotic inference. Finally, we demonstrate the satisfactory performance of our methodology in simulations and provide an empirical illustration using the Understanding America Study panel.

Bio: Grigory is a CESR economist with research interests in econometric theory and survey methodology.

Monday, December 16, 2024

12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Abstract: Research investigating the impact of highlighting versus minimizing gender differences has shown that it can affect women’s agency, potentially increasing gender disparities. Specifically, when women read a difference-awareness message that emphasizes gender differences, they show reduced agency (i.e., assertiveness, confidence, and advocacy) compared to when they read a difference-minimization message that downplays gender differences. Our work challenges the idea that highlighting gender differences is inherently harmful. We propose that a difference-education message that acknowledges these differences while providing a contextual theory of their origin (i.e., differences come from participating in and adapting to diverse sociocultural contexts) will not produce the same detrimental effects. Across three empirical studies, we test the impact of difference-education compared to difference-awareness. We predict and find that, relative to difference-awareness, messages of difference-education increase women’s agency in general and their likelihood of confronting gender biases and advocating for equality in the workplace. Additionally, we demonstrate that, compared with difference-awareness, difference-education leads women to anticipate greater levels of fit and empowerment in the workplace. We also find that difference-education and difference-minimization messages show similar effects across our outcomes. This work suggests that it is not necessary to downplay gender differences, which may be a challenging task. Rather, a contextual understanding of gender differences can serve as an effective strategy in addressing gender disparities in professional settings.

Bio: Sarah S. M. Townsend is an Associate Professor of Management and Organization and Vice Dean for Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion at the Marshall School of Business at USC. Her research focuses on when individuals’ cultural norms collide with the dominant cultural norms of organizations. She examines how these “cultural divides” are often a hidden source of inequality, but how they can be used to lessen opportunity gaps and fuel greater cross-group understanding.

The CESR Seminar & Brown Bag Series will resume Monday, January 27, 2025 and conclude Monday, May 5, 2025.

Mondays
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Monday, January 27
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Abstract: This paper examines the adoption and diffusion of a computer-assisted learning (CAL) platform. Using a large-scale randomized control trial involving over 1,600 teachers and 50,000 students in 188 low-performing public schools in Lima, Peru, we evaluated three treatments: (i) school-wide workshops, (ii) workshops for selected teachers, and (iii) workshops plus personalized coaching for selected teachers. Treated teachers and their students showed significantly greater engagement with the platform compared to non-treated teachers; teachers who received both workshops and coaching had significantly more students connecting regularly and completing exercises than those who only received workshops. At endline, treated teachers reported having more information, more knowledge, and more favorable attitudes about technology. Treatment effects were heterogeneous by gender, age, digital skills, and attitudes towards technology. In schools where only selected teachers were treated, we also find positive spillovers among non-treated teachers. Platform use declined markedly in subsequent years, but supplementary workshops were significantly more effective at boosting utilization for teachers who had received our interventions. We conclude that scalable low-cost training programs can significantly improve the adoption of technology by teachers.

Bio: Ofer Malamud is Professor of Human Development and Social Policy and a Faculty Fellow at the Institute for Policy Research at Northwestern University.

Malamud is an economist focused on education policy from an international perspective. His research is concentrated in three substantive areas: educational investments over the life course, the role of technology in the formation of human capital, and the effect of general and specific education on labor market outcomes. He has studied these topics in a wide range of institutional settings across countries such as Chile, England, Israel, Mexico, Peru, Romania, Scotland, and the United States.

Malamud is a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member of the CESifo Research Network. He also serves as a research consultant for the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Before joining Northwestern, he was on the faculty of the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy and a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Monday, February 3
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Monday, February 1o
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Abstract: We assess the long-term impact of the Great Recession on U.S. electoral outcomes. In line with prior work, we use a difference-in-differences approach, leveraging geographic variation in unemployment shocks. We find that counties more severely affected by the recession experienced a sustained increase in Democratic vote shares, particularly in Congressional elections, with effects persisting through 2022. Investigating potential mechanisms, we find that these electoral shifts are unlikely to be driven by (i) lasting negative economic repercussions, (ii) compositional changes in the affected regions, (iii) supply-side changes in candidate ideology, or (iv) compensatory government spending. Instead, survey evidence on individual attitudes suggests that the Great Recession significantly and persistently lowered expectations for future quality of life, potentially increasing demands for redistribution and benefiting Democrats. Contrary to prior work, our findings imply that (i) adverse economic shocks do not necessarily benefit right-wing populist candidates and (ii) recessions can have lasting political consequences even after their direct economic effects have subsided.

Bio: Dr. Hilbig graduated from the Department of Government at Harvard University in 2022. and is currently an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Davis. His research lies at the intersection of Comparative Politics and Political Economy. He examines how economic transformations, such as labor market shifts, the transition to renewable energy, regional inequality, and housing crises, shape politics in established democracies. His work leverages a range of research designs and data sources, including natural experiments, large-scale surveys and administrative data. Previously, He was a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics at Princeton University.

Monday, February 24
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Monday, March 3
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Monday, March 10
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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*Cohosted with Behavioral Science & Policy and Social Psychology

Abstract: In this presentation, I use data from the Big Three, the Personal Finance Index, and new information from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey to document very low levels of financial literacy in the United States and around the world. Looking at the data from a personal finance approach, I show how financial literacy affects financial decision-making – from managing assets to debt and debt management – and the consequences of low financial knowledge for individuals and society as well. I discuss the implications of my findings for policy and programs, including the importance of teaching personal finance in high school and college and the new Initiative for Financial Decision-Making (IFDM) at Stanford University.

Bio: Annamaria Lusardi is Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR), and the Director of the Initiative for Financial Decision-Making, a collaboration between SIEPR, the Graduate School of Business (GSB), and the Economics Department at Stanford University. She is also Professor of Finance (by courtesy) at the GSB. Previously, she was University Professor at The George Washington University and, before that, she was the Joel Z. and Susan Hyatt Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College, where she started her academic career.

Monday, March 24
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Monday, March 31
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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*Cohosted with Behavioral Science & Policy and Social Psychology

Abstract: The results of randomized trials testing promising interventions are often unstable. To understand why past successes do not necessarily predict future success, we focus on unassessed variability in four features of intervention implementation: fidelity, context, targeted participants, and implementers. Replication and continuous improvement require knowing what occurred, specifying fit with the intended intervention (implementation fidelity), and uncovering misfits (stumbling points). The hope is that by operationalizing a process theory into an activity set, interventions will yield theory-specified changes in trajectories toward desired outcomes. The reality is that process theories may apply only in specific contexts or populations and successful delivery of the intervention activity set may require that implementers have a particular set of beliefs or skills. Mismatches between the operationalization of a theory into an intervention and the contexts of implementation, the targeted participants, and implementers tasked with delivering the intervention can significantly affect implementation fidelity and hence failures to replicate. We concretize our discussion by focusing on a decade of delivery of the Pathways-to-Success program, a brief, manualized, universal social and behavioral intervention delivered by 8th-grade teachers during the school day with quality-of-implementation support. Pathways-to-Success supports student academic outcomes (GPA, grade retention). Controlling past academic trajectories, students in classrooms receiving Pathways-to-Success with higher implementation fidelity have better academic trajectories. We assess fidelity from observational coding using videotapes of each Pathways-to-Success 45-minute session and describe the associations between school contexts, features of participants and implementers, and fidelity across a decade of delivery in public schools in four states including about n=300 classrooms and n=6,000 children.

Bio: Dr. Oyserman’s research explores how subtle contextual changes can shift mindsets, influencing the perceived meaning of behaviors and situations, with significant downstream effects on outcomes such as health and academic performance. She conceptualizes these underlying processes through theoretical and experimental work, translating them into real-world interventions. A key focus is on cultural differences in affect, behavior, and cognition, as well as addressing racial, ethnic, and social class gaps in school achievement and health by revealing how seemingly “fixed” group differences often stem from malleable situational factors. Collaborating with an interdisciplinary team at the USC Dornsife Mind & Society Center, she publishes widely, with most of her work accessible online. Dr. Oyserman holds a PhD in psychology and social work from the University of Michigan, and previously served at The Hebrew University and the University of Michigan, earning honors such as the W. T. Grant Faculty Scholar Award and a Humboldt Scientific Contribution Prize, and recognition as a Fellow of several prestigious psychological associations.

Monday, April 7
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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*Cohosted with Behavioral Science & Policy and Social Psychology

Monday, April 14
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Monday, April 21
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Wednesday, April 23
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Monday, April 28
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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Monday, May 5
12pm – 1pm
VPD 203 and Zoom
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*Cohosted with Economics

Tuesday, December 3
9am-10am PST
Zoom
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*Cohosted with UCLA Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC)

Thursday, December 5
9am-10am PST
Zoom
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Dates: January 10-12, 2025 (Fri-Sun)

Venue: University of Southern California – SGM 124 and MCB

Duration: 3 days (6 half-day sessions, 9-12, 1-5)

Format: Invited talks, panel discussions, and social gathering

Registration: Register here.

Join the mailing list to get more information.

Organizing committee: Anna Krylov (USC), Arie Kapteyn (USC, CESR), Margaret Crable (USC Dornsife, Communication), Michele Warnock (USC, CESR), Lee Jussim (Rutgers), Ivan Marinovic (Stanford)

Advisory board: Alexander Arnold (Heterodox Academy), Cory Clark (UPenn), Barry Honig (Columbia, AASL), Luana Maroja (Williams), Sean Stevens (FIRE), Abigail Thompson (UC Davis, AFA), Keith Whittington (Yale, AFA)

We’re excited to announce that CIPHER 2025 will be held at USC’s Capital Campus in Washington, D.C. on February 26 – 28.

In its seventh year, the Current Innovations in Probability-based Household Internet Panel Research (CIPHER) Conference continues to be the leading event for discussion, exchange, and learning about probability panels. The event again will bring together researchers and policymakers from the United States and beyond for a wide-ranging conversation about innovations, challenges, and opportunities in this field.

Conference Registration and Fees

CIPHER is free to attend in-person or virtually, but registration is required. To register for CIPHER and/or the UAS Data Use Workshop, please complete this form.

Location and Format

The joint conference will take place February 26 – 28 at USC’s Capital Campus in Washington D.C.The preliminary program is as follows:

• February 26: UAS Data Use Workshop
• February 27: CIPHER and Reception
• February 28: CIPHER

Dates: March 8, 2025 (Saturday)

Venue: University of Southern California – Taper Hall (MPH)

UCLA and USC will host the 2025 Pacific Conference for Development Economics (PacDev)—the largest West Coast conference on Development Economics, and one of the leading Development Economics events in the United States. The conference brings together over 200 researchers from all over the world to present and discuss work that enhances our understanding of economic development, advances theoretical and empirical methods, and improves development interventions and policy.