February 2020
By Jennifer Ito, Justin Scoggins, and Manuel Pastor
When we first released Getting Real About Reform in 2015, we presented a methodology for estimating county-level tax revenue gains from a change in law to assess commercial/industrial properties at market value in California. We subsequently updated the analysis in 2018, and here we update it again in 2020—the year an initiative will be on the November ballot to make such a change in law. While we build on the methods developed in that earlier work, we use here more recent data and alter our assumptions around average annual growth rates for both assessed value and market value to reflect likely market conditions. We then project our baseline estimates forward to 2021-22, and offer an estimate of the revenue implications for the Golden State and its diverse 58 counties under a system that assesses commercial and industrial property based on market rather than acquisition value. That analysis suggests a shift to market value assessment on the commercial and industrial side could yield 10.3 to 12.6 billion dollars statewide in additional property tax revenue.