What you need to know about the papal conclave

On May 7, the doors of the Sistine Chapel in Vatican City will be shut and sealed, marking the start of the “conclave,” the process through which the Catholic Church’s next pope will be selected.

It’s a decision that even non-Catholics may want to pay attention to, says Richard Wood, president of the Institute for Advanced Catholic Studies at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. Wood’s research and writing focuses on religion, faith-based organizing and global sociology. 

“Catholicism is the single biggest Christian denomination both in the United States and in the world. In the US, it’s 18 to 20% of the population and has real influence on culture and politics. So this matters to everyone,” he says.   

Wood shares insight into the rather secretive voting process, as well as who might become Pope Francis’ successor.

Who is eligible to become the pope?

Strict rules are few: Any baptized, unmarried Catholic male can become the pope. Since 1378, however, the pope has been selected from the church’s senior clergy, the College of Cardinals. So although the pool of candidates is technically vast, the next pope will almost certainly be a cardinal.

These same cardinals also help select the pope. Just over 130 out of the 252 cardinals are currently eligible to vote. These “cardinal electors” must be under the age of 80 when voting and in good-standing with the church to qualify, says Wood.

What is the conclave?

“Conclave” derives from the Latin phrase “cum clave,” meaning “with key,” and is the name for the official gathering in which cardinal electors vote for the next pope.

To avoid political interference and distractions, it’s a highly secretive affair. The Vatican grounds are swept for listening devices beforehand, cell service is cut off, and even kitchen staff must swear an oath of silence. Cardinals are locked into the Sistine Chapel and adjacent guest house until they make a decision.

Once the doors of the chapel are sealed, discussion, debate, prayer and good-old-fashioned politicking will take place. Each cardinal strives to discern the right path forward and then attempts to persuade others about their selection. Prayer is central, with cardinals presumably praying for the guidance of the Holy Spirit in their choice.

They vote once on the first day and then take two votes each morning and each afternoon on every subsequent day. If the conclave extends past a third day, the cardinals pause awhile for prayer before resuming.

The process could take anywhere from a few days to weeks or conceivably months (and at least one went on for years), although most suspect this one will be short.

When the final decision is made, a plume of white smoke will arise from a rooftop chimney to signal the start of a new papal era. 

Conclaves don’t always go smoothly, Wood notes. In 1378, the conclave resulted in two different candidates declaring themselves the true pope, ruling from France and Italy. It took 40 years for the church to reorganize again under a single pope, back in Rome.

What politics might influence who the cardinals choose?

From a distance, the conclave is often portrayed as a political struggle between so-called progressives, traditionalists and moderates, says Wood, who recently spoke on the panel “Politics of the Conclave” hosted by the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future. Those who seek to sustain the legacy of Pope Francis, who took a progressive approach to certain issues, are seen as “progressives.” Those who seek a Catholicism more centered on past or traditional teachings are seen as “conservatives.” 

“However, those categories miss much of what is going on, projecting American political categories onto something much richer and more complex,” he says.

Papal transitions are key inflection points in a tradition that is a source of meaning, direction, and hope for more than a billion people worldwide. The cardinals will be seeking to discern what should come next for that Church, in continuity with the past but also moving the Church into the future with confidence and hope. “Who can best lead that move?” will be the key question on their mind. 

“How the cardinals are going to decide those questions is very unknown and makes this a much more complicated conclave than folks are giving it credit for,” says Wood. 

Less widely discussed issues could also play a key role: “The church faces some very difficult financial decisions. The cardinal electors are going to be thinking through who has the most promise to help them resolve that,” he says.

Could the next pope be an American?

It’s possible the pope could be an American, or from any nation. There are no geographical restrictions on who can take the seat. Pope Francis was born in Argentina, and his predecessor, Pope Benedict XIV, was born in Germany.

Wood feels it’s unlikely that an American will be chosen this time.  “I think the American church has so much economic power that the cardinals will be wary of also putting the power of the papacy in American hands,” he says. “But an exception might be someone who has spent most of his career elsewhere, serving the needs of people around the world as well as the global Church.” 

Francis himself expanded the church’s emphasis outside of Europe. His appointment marked the first non-European pope in more than 1,200 years and the first from the global south. He elected some 30 cardinals from the Latin American region during his time as pope (but not all are current cardinal-electors)

Some of the rumored lead candidates for the role do include non-Europeans, such as Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines and Peter Turkson from Ghana.

What challenges or opportunities might the next pope face?

First, he faces a church changed considerably by Pope Francis’ reforms, says Wood. Francis emphasized “synodality,” a process of dialogue and consultation across all levels of the church. He placed women in positions of real authority in the Vatican. 

He also conducted a “clean-up” of Vatican finances, a decision which, coupled with his critiques of “unbridled capitalism” and emphasis on the Church “going out to the marginalized” may have put off some large donors. The next pope will have to grapple with these new internal realities, either maintaining them or reversing course.

He will face considerable geo-political challenges as he leads as well, says Wood, including rising authoritarianism, climate change, and the problems associated with increased global wealth inequality. 

Technology will be another papal puzzle. Social media platforms are now hugely influential, disrupting how people relate to each other and connect with their faith. New artificial intelligence tools promise even more disruption.

All this screen time could be a factor in calling many back to the pews. The once seemingly continuous decrease in religious adherence may have stopped, although the data is still unclear.

“Pope Francis may have had some impact here. He led with a tone and tenor that changed peoples’ experience of the church,” says Wood. “He reached out to the marginalized and offered a ‘fresher face’ of Catholicism that appears to have raised the profile of the church among younger generations.”