At about 7AM on Sunday morning, Turkish and Azerbaijani forces launched an unprecedented attack on the Armenian-administered Nagorno Karabakh (Artsakh), with hundreds of missiles and drones launched, followed by ground attacks. Turkish forces included an F-16 squadron that specializes in air defense suppression, the Bayraktar drone fleet that targets ground forces, and more than 2,000 mercenary forces, most of them from Syria, used to launch ground attacks.
The attack came after open threats of military action against Armenia made by Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his defense minister Hulusi Akar. According to reporting by the Russian Kommersant newspaper, Akar along with other senior Turkish military officers were in Azerbaijan and directly in charge of the offensive.
As the attack unfolded, Turkish leaders said that their goal was to completely oust Armenian forces from Artsakh and Turkish military and associated social media began publishing videos from Turkish Bayraktar drones showing attacks against Armenian forces, as well as claims of tactical advances.
In early October, Azerbaijan’s artillery and air attacks increasingly became indiscriminate, focusing the shelling on population centers such as Stepanakert, rather than military targets. The Armenian side responded with attacks against Azerbaijani towns such as Ganja, Mingechaur and Barda.
In fighting on the ground, Turkish-backed Azerbaijani forces succeeded in capturing the two Armenian-populated villages of Talish and Madagis in Artsakh’s northeast, and advanced in the south of Karabakh, along the border with Iran and through Hadrut towards Shushi. As fighting continued Azerbaijan was resupplied with ammunition from Israel, Ukraine and Belarus, and mercenaries from Turkey.
In the more than 40 days of fighting, Russia, France and the United States – the three co-chairs in the international mediation effort on Karabakh – have failed to put an end to fighting or even to limit weapons and mercenary transfers that are fueling the war or introduce any other sanctions.
By the time the cease-fire was agreed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey on November 10, 2020, more than 3,500 Armenians, more than 3,000 Azerbaijanis and more than 500 Syrian mercenaries were confirmed killed. More than 100,000 people were displaced
In line with the cease-fire terms, Armenian forces withdrew from Aghdam, Kelbajar and Lachin district, while Russian forces deployed along the perimeter of the part of Karabakh that remained under Armenian control and along a 5km Lachin corridor connection to the Republic of Armenia. In all some three-fourth of pre-war Armenian-controlled territory is now controlled by Turkish-backed Azerbaijan
In violation of the cease-fire terms, in November-December 2020 Azerbaijani forces continued to advance in parts of Karabakh, capturing two more Armenian settlements and more than 70 Armenian military personnel and civilians, most of whom, along with others captured before the cease-fire, remain in Azerbaijan custody.
The Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh is agreed for five years, with no determination of Karabakh’s status or security guarantees. Still more than 50,000 Karabakh Armenians displaced during the fighting have returned to Karabakh, primarily Stepanakert, since the cease-fire.