Q&A: What’s next after prosecutors’ plea deal with Manafort?
Jeb Barnes, professor of political science at USC Dornsife, has been following the developments in special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation of election meddling by the Russians. He gave his assessment of the implications of these latest developments.
What does the Manafort plea deal mean for Trump?
Absent any kind of pardon, it is important to remember that Manafort has not been sentenced yet. He has a strong incentive to cooperate with federal prosecutors in order to get a lesser sentence.
News reports indicate that the deal requires him to cooperate with prosecutors. So, if you’re Donald Trump, this plea deal does not mean that Manafort’s case is over and that he is no longer a problem. It actually means that prosecutors have even more leverage with Manafort.
Could Trump pardon Manafort? Would that help Trump or hurt him?
President Trump could pardon him with respect to federal crimes. But even if he were pardoned by the president, Mueller could compel Manafort to testify in future cases and, if he lies under oath, prosecute him for perjury.
Also, some might argue that pardoning Manafort is an abuse of the president’s pardon power. If so, that could be added to any articles of impeachment — if there are any coming down the pike. Whether a pardon would help prosecutors make a case for obstruction of justice by Trump is a matter of dispute. On one hand, the pardon would not prevent Manafort from testifying. On the other, it might be seen as an attempt to reduce his incentives to cooperate with prosecutors.
Do we know what the Mueller team could do next?
We don’t know what cards Mueller and his team are holding. We only know how they have played their hand so far. This investigation is python-like; they started with members of Trump’s outside circle and have worked their way closer toward his inner circle — filing charges, getting indictments, plea deals and guilty verdicts, and flipping witnesses along the way.
If you put all of these cases together so far, along with the immunity deals given to Allen Weisselberg (the chief financial officer of the Trump organization tied to the Michael Cohen case) and the National Enquirer publisher David Pecker, the Mueller team is moving closer and closer toward the president’s inner circle.
It’s hard to speculate, but if you look at the more than 30 indictments, there have been a number of guilty pleas and a number of witnesses agreeing to cooperate. None of this, including Manafort’s deal today, is good news for the president.