How underrepresented voters could influence the 2024 election

As the 2024 election nears the finish line, both parties are increasingly courting groups of voters with historically low turnout.

These “underrepresented voters,” such as the non-college educated and voters of color, could play a pivotal role in deciding the election, especially in swing states, said experts at a recent Dornsife Dialogues event.

• These voters’ changing political alliances could also radically alter both parties in the coming decades.

Jane Coaston, contributing opinion writer at The New York Times and a fellow at the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future (CPF), moderated the Dornsife Dialogue.

Find a transcript of this audio here under the transcript tab.

The big picture: Political alignment is increasingly being shaped by education level, a phenomenon that many experts are calling the “diploma divide.”

In his words: “Those with college degrees are moving markedly towards the left. Those without college degrees equally as quickly to the right,” says Mike Madrid, a political consultant and former CPF fellow. This includes Black and Latino voters, who make up the largest and fastest growing group within the working class.

What to watch: People of color have traditionally been assumed to vote largely for Democrats, while whites voted more for Republicans. These dynamics have changed over the past decade, however.

• “The Republican Party has become a considerably more diverse party under Donald Trump than at any time since before the 1964 Civil Rights Act, and it’s becoming more so every year,” Madrid says. “At the same time, the Democratic Party is becoming more monolithically white.”
• Madrid’s new book, The Latino Century, charts how Latinos are transforming the country’s politics.

Key issues: Three issues are proving crucial to underrepresented voters’ behavior.

• Working-class disengagement: The political process often does not prioritize underrepresented voters, leading to low participation. “We very often hear candidates talk about what they will want to do for the middle class. Very rarely do candidates explicitly say, ‘This is what I want to do for poor people,’” says Eugene Scott, host of Axios Live and a former national political reporter at The Washington Post.
• Economic stress: Rising costs, particularly inflation and housing prices, are central concerns for low-income voters, especially those in blue-collar jobs. “During 85% of the Biden administration, interest rates tripled … our currency devalued by at least 20%,” Madrid noted. “It is painful and it is deep.”
• Believability gap: Many low-income voters express a disillusionment with both parties. “There’s a believability problem, and it’s particularly acute in the Democratic Party,” says Madrid. “These voters have been hearing from the Democratic Party, believing the Democratic Party, but are probably being let down about the results.”

What’s next: Any change in a party’s priorities will also depend on whether underrepresented voters increase their participation, says Scott.

• “People can tweet and talk in barbershops and at family events but then not vote. I don’t know that there will be as significant of a shift to address the needs of these voters if they don’t have any stake in the game,” he says.

What else? In 2024 and beyond, both parties are at a crossroads.

• “The party that is able to speak to a multi-ethnic working class in this country is going to be the dominant party of the next generation,” says Madrid. “The Democratic Party is really struggling with the working-class piece, and the Republican Party is really struggling with the multi-ethnic piece.”