What’s going on in Ukraine? USC experts weigh in on the latest developments
After weeks of escalations between Russia, the United States and Western Europe, the volatile situation in Ukraine seems to have reached a stalemate, with Russia indicating they would begin withdrawing troops from the contested border.
However, while the conflict begins to cool in the real world, the online battle rages on — and doesn’t look to end soon. Détente in the Ukraine may only set off a wave of other conflicts.
International relations experts at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences weigh in on the latest developments.
Cyberattacks, subterfuge critical to Russian tactics
The Russian threat of a full throttle invasion in the Ukraine is the latest step in a series of aggressive actions taken by Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand that country’s influence and territory and reclaim the former Soviet state.
And it has happened before.
The 2014 Russian invasion and annexation of the Crimean Peninsula looms large to those analyzing the conflict. The question remains how much the United States and NATO should interfere with the former Eastern Bloc.
Russia may take a less aggressive approach on the ground than it did in Crimea. It could instead appeal to the Russian-majority separatist Donbas region in Eastern Ukraine, according to said Robert English, associate professor of international relations, Slavic languages and literature and environmental studies at USC Dornsife.
“If there is no compromise, no deal satisfying both NATO and Russian security, then Putin could shift tactics and do something even more serious than threatening war,” English said. “Russia could recognize the independence of the Donbas. That would infuriate Western Ukrainians, and NATO would call it dismembering Ukraine. But Russia would say, ‘If you won’t agree to keep Ukraine out of NATO, then we will build a buffer zone here.’
“Russia wouldn’t have to annex the Donbas as they did Crimea, they could simply recognize it as independent and help it build a stronger military and borders from the rest of Ukraine. And they will say, ‘You backed Kosovo secession from Serbia, so we are backing Donbas secession from Ukraine.’”
Alliances may stymie Russian, NATO objectives
Germany and China continue to monitor events in Eastern Europe with major strategic and economic objectives on the line.
Germany will hope development can continue with the $11 billion Nord Stream II pipeline project connecting Russian natural gas to Germany. President Joe Biden has warned Russia that the United States and its allies would shut down the pipeline project if Russia invades Ukraine.
While the U.S. is shoring up its allies, Russia is doing the same. Putin recently visited Chinese leader Xi Jinping. As the situation in Ukraine has unfolded, China has increasingly vocalized its dissatisfaction with NATO involvement in Europe. On Feb. 7, Putin and Xi cemented both countries’ stance against any NATO expansion.
Despite their unified front, there may be limits to cooperation between Russia and China, according to Gregory F. Treverton, professor of the practice of international relations and spatial sciences at USC Dornsife.
“Russia and China have been pushed together by their common adversary, the U.S.,” said Treverton, who served as chairperson of the U.S. National Intelligence Council from 2014 to 2017. “But I’ve thought there are sharp limits on their cooperation.
“The issue is whether he (Putin) feels he has to do something. I’m betting that time, plus perhaps some gestures toward his desires — like Ukraine saying it has no intention to join NATO — will let the whole affair fizzle out.”
Ultimately, Treverton said, Putin’s negotiating position has been weakened by unrealistic demands throughout the conflict.
“Putin has backed himself into a corner. He made demands on NATO that, while sincere on his part, had no chance of being met. He is impetuous, so anything is possible, but he has absolutely no reason to invade Ukraine. Who would sign up for an insurgency?”