Second Karabakh War: Outcomes

With the Russian-secured cease-fire agreement holding in Karabakh for the past three weeks, these are some of the preliminary outcomes of the fighting between Armenian and Turkish-backed Azerbaijani forces from September 27 to November 9:

• At least 2,415 and likely more than 3,000 Armenians died in the fighting. The Armenian military has published names of 1,690 military servicemen killed. Many hundreds remain unaccounted for, with hundreds of bodies not yet identified or not yet located. More than two dozen servicemen and civilians held as prisoners in Azerbaijan have been identified, dozens of others are likely to be held in captivity and not yet identified.
• No official statistics for Azerbaijani war casualties have been made public. (Update: On December 3 Azerbaijani government confirmed deaths of 2,783 military personnel, with hundreds of others unidentified or missing in action. Also on December 3, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights estimated the total number of Turkish Syrian mercenaries killed in Karabakh fighting at 541.)
• The Republic of Artsakh has lost nearly 75 percent of its pre-war territory: about 25 percent was lost in the fighting and the remainder handed over in accordance with the terms of the November 9 cease-fire. The territorial losses include about one-third of the Soviet-era Nagorno Karabakh autonomy’s territory, including nearly all of Hadrut, and parts of Shushi, Askeran, Martuni and Mardakert districts. For the first time since May 1992, Artsakh is again an enclave surrounded by Azerbaijani territory.
• Of the pre-war population of some 150,000 people, more than 30,000 lived in areas that are now under Azerbaijani control and all have been displaced. Some 27,000 people displaced during fighting are reported to have returned to areas under Armenian control since the return to cease-fire. However, many others remain in the Republic of Armenia, and rough estimates suggest that less than half of the pre-war population remains in Karabakh.
• Some 2,000 Russian military personnel, including mechanized infantry, deminers and medics are now deployed throughout Karabakh and the road via Lachin that connects it to the Republic of Armenia. Russian personnel from the military base in Gyumri and the Border Guards are deployed along Armenia’s borders with Azerbaijan, which were previously defended by Armenian armed forces.
• Nagorno Karabakh’s formal status remains undetermined and Armenian-Azerbaijani borders undemarcated.