China and the United States: Is Trade the Key to Peace?

All it takes is one flick of a hand, a poorly positioned piece, or a draft of wind to bring all
the dominoes crashing down. China and the United States are dominoes struggling to stay up
despite the tension they place on each other. As two major world superpowers, China and the
United States have had a strained relationship for many years. Fighting because of resources,
trade, and different governing ideologies, they have found it difficult to become allies. In order to
analyze their relationship and decipher whether their future will result in conflict or alliance, this
essay will give a brief history of China and the United States to contextualize the foundation of
their relationship. Then, it will discuss liberalism, realism, constructivism, post-colonial
approaches, and how these theories tie into a possible outcome. Lastly, it will delve into the most
pressing issue that impacts China and the United States’ relationship: the China/Taiwan issue.
Despite the crucial trade ties between China and the US, the complex history and relationship
they have cultivated over the years make conflict likely as they contend for greater control and
status.
Dating back to the late 1800s, China and the United States started off on the wrong foot.
As a newly formed country, the United States wanted to create relations with the longstanding
China. However, according to the novel, America’s First Adventure in China, Qing Emperor
Qianlong decreed, “Since the productions of our empire are manifold and in great abundance,
China did not stand in the least need of produce of other countries” (Hadad 2013). Since China had a history of excellence because of its innovations, it did not deem it necessary to open its
borders and come into contact with the Western world. This was when the United States began
trying to find a product that the Chinese would consider valuable enough to trade for. Their
answer was the narcotic opium. Derived from poppy seeds, opium served as an addictive
depressant for the Chinese population. Americans “regarded opium, or rather the wealth derived
from it, as fueling their rise in the world” (Hadad 2013). Opium became immensely popular in
China, with civilians acquiring the drug by any means possible. Although opium helped propel
the American economy, it did the opposite for the Chinese. This narcotic was what initiated the
Century of Humiliation, a period of time where the Chinese were subjugated at the hands of
Western and Japanese powers (Becker). This era helped form a major part of Chinese historical
memory, with China’s main foreign policy centered around returning to the greatness that it had
before Westerners intervened.
Moving more than 100 years forward, the formation of the People’s Republic of China is
a major factor in the US-China conflict in relation to Taiwan, specifically. After many
revolutions had swept the country following the opium wars, China was in the middle of a civil
war in order to bring an end to the Century of Humiliation. The Kuomintang government,
supported by the United States, moved the capital of China to Taiwan, forming the Republic of
China, while the Chinese Communist Party formed the People’s Republic of China on the
mainland (Becker). Leading up to the present, one of China’s goals has been the “reunification”
of China by bringing Taiwan back into the nation, which revisits China’s desire to return to
greatness. This has led to interference from the United States which supports Taiwan against
China.

After discussing the history of China and the United States, multiple theories can be
applied to further analyze the trajectory of the two countries’ conflict. Firstly, realism states that,
“International outcomes depend on the power of actors involved, with those having greater
power determining outcomes in their own interests” (Sterling-Folker 2006). Realism emphasizes
that countries are driven by power, which ultimately leads them into conflict. When looking at
China and the United States from a realist perspective, their eventual dispute is likely, as they are
two opposing actors fighting for more power. A realist solution would be for the two countries to
engage in combat, with one coming out as the victor.
Another perspective is to look at the conflict through a liberalist lens. Liberalism can be
seen as the opposite of realism because it focuses more on “peace, prosperity, and justice”
(Sterling-Folker 2006). Striving for freedom and equality, liberalism centers on spreading
democracy worldwide, which ties into the democratic peace theory, which states that democratic
countries are less likely to go to war with one another. As the United States is a democratic
country, it wishes to employ the democratic peace theory in order to bring order and harmony to
society. However, the fact that China is communist is a large obstacle in its way. According to
liberalism, the conflict between China and the United States can be solved peacefully through
modes of cooperation such as treaties. More aggressive methods are frowned upon.
Constructivism helps shape a country's identity and plays a large role in China's and the
United States’ foreign policy. Constructivism explains that “historical memory is important in
forming a unique, yet ever-changing, identity…which guides state foreign policy behavior”
(Becker 2013). A state’s identity helps develop its culture and ideals as well as how it deals with
foreign powers. For China, its foreign policy stems from the embarrassment citizens felt during
the Century of Humiliation, which makes up its historical memory and identity. These two factors shape China’s desire to return to greatness, resulting in a more uncooperative attitude
towards the United States because of the role they played in the Century of Humiliation. The
United States, on the other hand, fought for its freedom and established a democracy. As
previously mentioned, it desires to spread democracy throughout the world. After analyzing
these factors, the differing foreign policies of a democratic state and a communist state give rise
to a likelihood of conflict.
The last theory of postcolonial approaches explores the effects of colonialism on
countries, which ties heavily into how they shape their values. The United States, who were
previously thirteen colonies, and China, which was not formally colonized by Britain, still
suffered under Western domination. Colonialism heavily impacted their identity and desire for
power. Although the United States is against colonialism, it still allied with the British in order to
help take control of China. This alliance with Western powers helped boost their standing in the
world. This fact emphasizes how crucial European powers were by stating, “whether non-
Europeans welcomed or disliked the Europeans, they were deeply impressed and found it
difficult to resist what the Europeans had to offer” (Seth 2022). To this day, the United States
engages in creating colonies in order to further propel its wealth, thanks to exposure to the
Western world. China, on the other hand, rejected the Europeans. These two polar-opposite
responses to colonialism demonstrate a higher chance of conflict between the United States and
China.
Presently, tensions between the United States and China are reaching an all-time high.
Trade is one of the major ties between the states, with each acting as a major importer and
exporter to the other. Through globalization, China became the United States' number one trade
partner, accounting for 17% of the United States' total trade (US Census Bureau). Even so, the trade relationship between China and the United States has not been equal. Instead, it has been
“characterized by both strong interdependence and huge imbalances” (Liang and Ding 2021).
Although the two countries shift between surpluses and deficits with one another, the outcome is
that trade heavily benefits both the United States and China. It is a major factor in why these two
states should not engage in conflict with one another. Their complex trade relationship would
prove detrimental for both if they were to lose each other as trading partners.
This statement is essential in understanding the significance of the Taiwan issue. As
stated before, China believes that Taiwan is a part of China and wishes to one day unify the
country. Taiwan wishes to remain its own republic and does not desire to return to China.
Furthermore, the United States has been supplying Taiwan with weapons, much to China’s
disdain (Maizland nd). Although the United States has not fully stated that it would defend
Taiwan if China attacked, it has not refuted the speculation either. Returning Taiwan to China is
imperative to the People’s Republic of China. According to the Council on Foreign Relations,
“Xi has emphasized that unification with Taiwan is essential to achieving what he calls the
Chinese Dream, which sees China’s great-power status restored by 2049” (Maizland, nd). This
relates to China’s historical memory with a desire to return to greatness, which conflicts with the
United States' desire to protect democracy and protect state freedom. These paradoxical values
continue to keep China and the United States at odds.
Another spark of conflict that Taiwan can ignite is centered around its production of
computer chips. The United States and China have been engaging in a trade war since 2018, with
a back-and-forth of tariffs between the two. Most notably, the United States put sanctions on
China’s computer chips in hopes of slowing down its technological and military advancements
(Becker). Taiwan produces the world’s best computer chips, which help power many electronic appliances around the world, including phones, tablets, cars, and medical devices. Because of
this, China and the United States are likely to go to war over Taiwan in order to acquire the
means to make computer chips.
However, Taiwan can also serve as a necessary means for peace. Taiwan holds much
power over the global world, so if war were to start there, it would be detrimental for computer
chip manufacturing,which would impact the whole world. Chris Miller states, “Such a scenario
would be disastrous for America’s economic and geopolitical position. Every company that’s
invested on either side of the Taiwan Strait, from Apple to Huawei, is implicitly betting on
peace” (Miller 2022). Any country that utilizes electronics and hosts such companies would
suffer major economic losses and lose access to technological advances. Furthermore, China
makes the electronics out of the chips they receive, which are sent to the United States (Miller
2022). Therefore, if the two were to go to war, the United States would be at a severe economic
disadvantage, and China would be able to become an even greater superpower. With all these
factors taken into account, Taiwan serves as a pivotal issue influencing whether the United States
and China conflict will end in peace or war.
With a complex history dating back hundreds of years, China and the United States have
had multiple opportunities to engage in conflict. While conflict is likely, economic
interdependence makes it difficult for war to come into actualization. By forming closer ties and
becoming more dependent on each other economically, China and the United States have more
incentive to maintain peaceful relations. Without trade, the possibility of China and the United
States going to war with each other will be much greater.
​

Works Cited

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