New California poll reveals Congress even less popular than President Trump

The first in a new series of USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times California polls leading up the 2018 general election reveals a large majority of the state’s residents have positive impressions of undocumented immigrants and oppose new federal policies that target them. It also spotlights the challenge for GOP candidates in the race for governor and U.S. Senator.

The internet-based poll of more than 1,500 Californians, conducted Oct. 27 through Nov. 6, reveals that President Donald Trump’s approval rating is in the tank at 22 percent and more than half of those polled said their representatives in Congress should never work with him.

The only good news for Trump is that he’s twice as popular as Congress.

What’s the top issue for Californians? Perhaps not surprisingly, the high cost of living and availability of housing, followed by the economy and jobs.

The poll’s margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points and 4 percentage points among the subset of about 1,300 registered voters who were surveyed.

Strong support for immigrants

“California is not very welcoming to the Trump administration’s immigration policies. In fact, it’s quite hostile to them,” said Robert Shrum, professor of the practice of political science and director of the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics at USC Dornsife.

More than six out of 10 Californians said undocumented immigrants are strengthening the economy rather than taking jobs and are helping to revitalize American cities as opposed to raising crime rates.  Eight out of 10 said immigrants are here because they want work, not handouts.  

Carmen H. and Louis Warschaw Chair in Practical Politics Robert Shrum. Photo by Matt Meindl.

More than half support California’s new “sanctuary state” law to shield undocumented immigrants from deportation unless they’ve committed a serious crime. Six out of 10 said elected leaders should not comply with Trump’s immigration policy.

“While more blue than red, California is not a monolith,” noted Survey Director Jill Darling of USC Dornsife’s Center for Economic and Social Research. “Nearly nine out of 10 Republicans want California’s leaders to cooperate with Trump’s immigration policy, maybe because more than seven out of 10 think undocumented immigrants take jobs from Americans and increase crime in U.S. cities.”

GOP shut out of general election race for governor and U.S. Senate?

“We face the very real possibility that in the general election, we’ll have Democrat against Democrat in the races for both governor and senator,” said Shrum, who holds the Carmen H. and Louis Warschaw Chair in Practical Politics.

California Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom leads former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa by 10 points, 31 percent to 21 percent, among registered voters who say they’ll vote in the race for governor. The leading Republican candidate, California State Assembly member Travis Allen, trails with 15 percent support.

In a two-way race for the Senate seat held by Democrat Dianne Feinstein since 1992, the incumbent has a commanding lead of 27 points over Calif. Senate President Pro Tempore Kevin de Leon, her closest challenger and a fellow Democrat.

“If billionaire businessman and Democrat Tom Steyer enters the race, as some predict, Feinstein’s margin would increase slightly,” Shrum said, “because he draws away more of the vote from De Leon.”

Narrow divisions regarding NFL players’ protests

Regarding the kneeling protests by players in the National Football League (NFL), sparked by former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick, people were closely divided but largely united in their opinion of how Trump has handled them.

Californians who oppose the protests are separated by only five points from the smaller proportion who support them (38 percent to 33 percent). There’s an even smaller divide between the slightly larger number who say the protests have been a distraction, compared to those who say they’ve furthered dialogue (37 percent to 34 percent). These differences are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points among all Californians.

More than three times as many Californians disagree with the way Trump has handled the issue than agree (60 percent to 19 percent).  

More polls leading to midterm elections

The USC Dornsife/L.A. Times poll is a partnership between the Los Angeles Times, the Unruh Institute and the Center for Economic and Social Research at USC Dornsife.

The partnership began last year with the USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak presidential election poll. Its results stood out among national polls by pointing toward the possibility of a Trump victory.

“We’re applying the Daybreak methodology to our polls leading up to the 2018 general election,” said Darling. The next California poll will be released in May 2018 before the primary, followed by one in September 2018 and a final reading just prior to the November 2018 election.

Three national surveys, the first of which will be in January 2018, will monitor the president’s approval ratings and opinions regarding key issues. It will also track congressional races, particularly the races in seven districts critical to the Democratic Party’s efforts to regain control of the House of Representatives.