Q&A: What midterm election risks does the Kavanaugh allegation raise for the GOP?

The Senate Judiciary Committee is planning an additional hearing about a sexual assault allegation against U.S. Supreme Court nominee Judge Brett Kavanaugh. Jane Junn, USC Associates Chair in Social Sciences and professor of political science and gender studies, says that it brings to light an “ick factor” for voters.

How could the Kavanaugh hearings and nomination decision affect voters, and in particular women?

Jane Junn.

We have to think about the effect of a sexual harassment scandal or allegation within the context of mobilization: who actually turns out to vote and their partisan vote choice — and who they pick.

Let’s take the Alabama Special Senate Election last year, for instance. It was open because Jeff Sessions was appointed as U.S. attorney general, and Luther Strange was put in his place temporarily by the Alabama governor.

Strange runs in the Republican primary against Roy Moore, who is alleged to have attempted harassment and assault of very young girls. President Trump, who had endorsed Strange, then gets behind Roy Moore.

At the time, the last Democrat who had been re-elected to the U.S. Senate was Richard Shelby in 1992. (He had switched party affiliation after 1992.) A lot of time has passed since then.

Doug Jones, the Democrat, wins. People speculated that it must have been because women voted against the candidate who was abusing young girls.

But we find that is not the case for white women. Sixty-three percent of white women supported Roy Moore.

Who saved Alabama from being led by a potential child molester? It was black women. Ninety-eight percent of them voted for Jones.

Has anything changed in terms of voter behaviors? Is Alabama signaling a shift across the country at all?

The same patterns are still at work. Democratic women vote Democrat. African Americans vote Democrat. White women still vote Republican, but they just don’t turn out for Moore.

Why not? Are they so disgusted that they don’t even want to vote?

We really don’t know what the denominators are. We are doing some research now to see if that “ick” factor is having an effect on turnout for men, women, Democrats and Republicans.

My general caution to any reporter would be: What happened in Alabama doesn’t mean it’s going to happen here. Look at the outcome of the 2016 election. Trump became president despite the Access Hollywood tape.

It is driven as much by partisan choice and by candidate choice as it is by mobilization (turnout). One of the things you have to account for is that ick factor: How does that demobilize voters?

I hear mothers say that they just can’t even watch the news anymore. They just decide that they won’t even take part in it. “It makes me feel yucky,” they say. That is the kiss of death for a candidate for mobilization.