Presenters:
Angela Zhang
Camila Cortes Rodriguez
Junhong Duan
University of Southern California
Crime and violence present critical public health challenges in the United States, with direct impacts and indirect impacts, such as heightened community stress. Research has identified rising temperatures as a potential aggravator of mental health issues, impulsivity, and aggression. As climate change continues to intensify, understanding the nuanced relationship between temperature fluctuations and crime is essential to inform public health and law enforcement strategies. This study investigates the spatio-temporal correlation between ambient temperature and crime rates in Los Angeles from 2010 to 2019.
The research design employs ordinary least squares regression and quasi-poisson distributed lag models to analyze the lagged effects of temperature variations on four crime categories, utilizing data from the Crime Open Database and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer climate dataset. We use variables from the American Community Survey, to control for additional drivers of crime including neighborhood-level covariates.
In order to intervene on crime on hotter days, it is necessary to know when and where the associations between heat and crime are the strongest. Findings from this study will inform targeted interventions by identifying high-risk areas and timeframes for specific crimes, thereby contributing actionable insights in mitigating the anticipated impact of climate change on urban crime dynamics.
