Probability Theory: Math 407, Spring 2025

 

Instructor: Larry Goldstein, larry@usc.edu

Course Prerequisite: USC MATH 226 or MATH 227, or an equivalent advanced multivariate calculus course.

Text and Course Coverage

Introduction to Probability, by David Anderson, Timo Seppalainen, and Benedek Valko

The course will cover the following material:

Chapter 1: Experiments with random outcomes, Sections 1.1-1.5

Chapter 2: Conditional probability and Independence, Sections 2.1-2.4

Chapter 3: Random Variables: Sections 3.1-3.5

Chapter 4: Approximations of the binomial distribution, Sections 4.1-4.6

Chapter 5: Transforms and transformations, Sections 5.1-5.2

Chapter 6: Joint distributions of random variables, Sections 6.2-6.3

Chapter 9: Tail bounds and limit theorems, Sections 9.1-9.3

Exams and Grading Policy

  • 15% Attendance
  • 26% Midterm exam, Wednesday, May 28th
  • 35% Final Exam, June 13th
  • 24% Three Quizzes, one on the first Thursdays during problem session, and the next two on the last two Tuesdays, covering the material since the previous quiz up to the Tuesday/Friday of the week of the quiz.

Assignments

Additional Problems

Chapter 1: 1,2,8,9,12,13,16,19,21,23,30,32,41,43,51,58,59

 

Chapter 2: 2,5,9,11,14,19,21,22,31,34,48,67,85,88

 

Chapter 3: 1,3,7,9,15,17,31,40,46,52,56,57,58,63,66,69,74,77

 

Chapter 4: 3,5,11,12,15,20,23,28,32,35,36,41,44,49,50,51,52,53,54,56

 

Chapter 5: 2,5,7,9,10,16,18,20,21,22,24,28,31,33,37,38, 39,40,43

 

Chapter 6: 7,13,15*,18,19,21,22,29,36,39,47,50*,55,57,58,60* (*=optional)

 

Chapter 7: 4, 12, 13, 15, 18

 

Chapter 9: 2,4,17,20,21*,24*,25* (is the condition |Cov(X_i,X_{i+1})| ≤c needed?), 26 (you may add additional conditions on the behavior of E[T_n]),27*, 29*, 32*, 33* (*=optional)

Birthday Probability Table

Monty Hall Problem

Class Notes:

19 May

20 May

21 May

22 May

23 May

26 May

27 May a) b)

28 May

29 May

3 June

4 June

5 June

6 June

9 June

10 June a) b)

11 June

Exercise Sheets

Ex. 1

Ex. 2

Ex. 3

Ex.4

Ex.5