Time and location: MWF 2:00pm – 2:50pm, WPH B28.
Text: Statistics, 3rd edition, by Freedman, Pisani, and Purves
Instructor: Jianfeng Zhang, DRB 354, (213)7409805
Email: jianfenz@usc.edu Homepage: http://math.usc.edu/~jianfenz
Office hours: M: 12:00-1:00 (DRB 354); W: 11:00-12:00 (DRB 354); F: 12:00-1:00 (MC)
Grader: Burton Newman
Grader office hours: T: 11-12 and 2-3; Th: 2-3; all in Math. Center
Note: You may get help from other professors or TAs in Math. Center at other time.
Important Dates:
- MidExam 1: Oct. 3, Friday
- MidExam 2: Nov. 7, Friday
- Final: Dec. 12th, Friday, 11:00am-1:00pm
- Project due date: Oct. 31, Friday
Course Content:
This course emphasizes the intuitive understanding of basic statistical principles and the application of sound statistical reasoning over the derivation and use of formulae. Concepts in probability and statistics are illustrated with examples pertinent to real world applications drawn from a variety of sources including medicine, law, gambling, genetics, and survey sampling.
We will cover all eight parts of the text: Design of experiments, Descriptive statistics, Correlation and regression, Probability, Chance variability, Sampling, Chance models, and Tests of significance.
Grading and Examination Policies
40% of the grade will be based on two midterm exams (20% each), 30% will be based on the final exam, 20% will be based on homework assignments, and 10% will be based on a project.
The (one hour) midterm exams will be given in regular class time. The final exam will be comprehensive, with an emphasis on the material covered since the second Midterm. All exams are close book . The exam problems will be in the same style as your homework problems. Calculators are allowed.
Some Review Exercises at the end of each chapter will be assigned in class as homeworks. Note, however, that all chapters contain other problems whose answers are located at the end of the text. Working these problems is highly recommended, as doing so provides excellent practice, and a way to check your work.
Project:
Students are to bring in a newspaper clipping from the LA Times that illustrates one of the principles learned in class, including but not limited to: the design of experiments, the presence of confounded effects, the placebo effect, sampling, coincidences, or the occurrence of unlikely events. For example, for an article which reports about conclusions drawn from a study, say whether the study is justified or not in drawing its stated conclusion, and whether the article gives a good analysis of the study, and why. Be specific. If you find an analysis of a study and believe there are confounded effects, state what they are. For an example involving sampling, if you believe there is sampling bias, state why you believe it would exist and in what direction it biases the conclusion; in particular, does the presence of such bias make the conclusion less or more believable?
Though you may find that it is easier (and more fun) to locate examples of faulty statistical reasoning over sound ones, articles which demonstrate good statistical reasoning can also be used. Full credit is given for correctly identifying the quality, good or bad, of the statistical reasoning in your example.
The instructor will illustrate the intention of the project by sharing a number of articles with the class during the first few weeks. Articles must be brought in to the instructor for approval. Non-technical sources other than the LA Times may be used only with special permission.
Your article, and a short report with your conclusions must be handed in no later than Oct. 31, Friday to receive full credit. Two points will be deducted for every passing week.
Feedback and Questions
It is very useful to get feedback and questions, both inside and outside class. You are very welcome to visit me during my office hours. You can also make appointments to see me at other time.