With the changing climate, our coasts are increasingly susceptible to the consequences of sea level rise and other stressors, such as storms, erosion, and flooding. Planning for coastal change helps managers develop and implement adaptation strategies to reduce the risks of climate change impacts affecting their coasts.
The U.S. Geological Survey, led by Dr. Patrick Barnard and Dr. Li Erickson, have developed the Coastal Storms Modeling System, or CoSMoS. CoSMoS is a region-specific numerical modeling system that will project coastal flooding and erosion driven by climate change, not only from sea level rise (SLR) but from future storms as well. View the CoSMoS Fact Sheet.
USC Sea Grant received funding from the California Coastal Conservancy to provide technical assistance and outreach on the CoSMoS model for the Southern California region and to help build capacity in coastal communities as they begin to plan for impacts from sea level rise.
USC Sea Grant, in partnership with local organizations, has held workshops in the Southern California sub-regions of Santa Barbara, Ventura, Los Angeles and Orange and San Diego counties to provide an introduction to the CoSMoS model. This is accompanied by a capacity-building and educational webinar series as the model gets developed and final results are released. Workshops are being planned for early 2017 to share final model results, translate model findings and to provide technical assistance.
The full suite of CoSMoS results and data covering 40 scenarios of sea level rise and coastal storm severity for Southern California are being released in fall 2016 and winter 2017. All results are free of charge and publicaly accessible through the mapping tool at Our Coast, Our Future.
Please contact Nick Sadrpour (email@example.com | 213.740.1937) for details and invitations for upcoming workshops being planned for January and February 2017.
USC Sea Grant is producing a professional development webinar series to provide subject-specific information and training that will help to advance sea level rise and coastal impacts planning in L.A. and Southern California. This series is part of the capacity building and stakeholder engagement component to our AdaptLA Program. Webinars will be held throughout 2015 - 2017 and will be open to all Southern California Coastal Impacts Project. All live webinars are archived and available for viewing here.
The initial workshops provided an introduction to the CoSMoS model, as well as an overview of other regional models that are available in each region.
Workshop were held in San Diego on October 30, 2014, in Los Angeles (through the Regional AdaptLA project) on Novemeber 13, 2014, and in Orange County on February 23, 2015.
View summaries and materials from the workshops here:
The first iteration of the model, CoSMoS 1.0, was developed as a pilot project for the Southern California region. It hindcast, or recreated, a January 2010 storm, which was approximately a 10-year storm. The model then projected coastal flooding from a similar 10-yr storm, in conjunction with 0.5 m of sea level rise (predicted for ~2050) and 1.4 m of sea level rise (predicted for ~2010). CoSMoS 1.0 was utilized by the City of L.A. in its first sea level rise vulnerability assessment.
CoSMoS 2.0, which focused on San Francisco Bay and the outer coast of the Bay Area, improved upon the earlier model. More information about this effort can be found at the Our Coast, Our Future website: http://www.prbo.org/oco
CoSMoS 3.0 for the Southern California region:
For more information on this project, please contact Nick Sadrpour | 213.740.1937
Archived Workshops and Webinars: