{"id":732,"date":"2022-06-09T11:20:00","date_gmt":"2022-06-09T18:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/what-is-committed-warming-a-climate-scientist-explains-why-global-warming-can-continue-long-after-emissions-end\/"},"modified":"2024-05-16T08:51:34","modified_gmt":"2024-05-16T15:51:34","slug":"what-is-committed-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/what-is-committed-warming\/","title":{"rendered":"What is \u2018committed warming\u2019? A climate scientist explains why global warming can continue long after emissions\u00a0end"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-3715-768x432.jpg\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-3715-768x432.jpg 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"What is \u2018committed warming\u2019? A climate scientist explains why global warming can continue long after emissions\u00a0end\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Greenhouse gases emitted today will warm the planet for years. (Image source: iStock.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=sustainability\">Sustainability<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>What is \u2018committed warming\u2019? A climate scientist explains why global warming can continue long after emissions\u00a0end<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Because of humans, the concentration of planet-warming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now 50% higher than before the industrial era and these gases are raising Earth\u2019s temperature.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Julien Emile-Geay<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">June 9, 2022<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" 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fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>By now, few people question the reality that humans <a href=\"https:\/\/www.anthropocenemagazine.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">are altering Earth\u2019s climate<\/a>. The real question is: How quickly can we halt, even reverse, the damage?<\/p>\n<p>Part of the answer to this question lies in the concept of \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.1103934\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">committed warming<\/a>,\u201d also known as \u201cpipeline warming.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It refers to future increases in global temperatures that will be caused by greenhouse gases that have already been emitted. In other words, if the clean energy transition happened overnight, how much warming would still ensue?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Earth\u2019s energy budget is out of balance<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Humans cause global warming when their activities emit greenhouse gases, which trap heat in the lower atmosphere, preventing it from escaping out to space.<\/p>\n<p>Before people began burning fossil fuels to power factories and vehicles and raising methane-emitting cattle in nearly every arable region, Earth\u2019s energy budget was roughly in balance. About the same amount of energy was coming in from the Sun as was leaving.<\/p>\n<p>Today, rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/carbon-dioxide-now-more-than-50-higher-than-pre-industrial-levels\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more than 50% higher<\/a> than they were at the dawn of the industrial age, and they\u2019re <a href=\"https:\/\/research.noaa.gov\/article\/ArtMID\/587\/ArticleID\/2877\/Greenhouse-gas-pollution-trapped-49-more-heat-in-2021-than-in-1990-NOAA-finds\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trapping more of that energy<\/a>.<\/p>\n<div class=\"video-embed\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/U2CPwWgY_G4?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0\" width=\"440\" height=\"260\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', Verdana, sans-serif; margin: 0.8em 0;\">Earth\u2019s delicate energy balance. California Academy of Sciences.<\/p>\n<p>Those carbon dioxide emissions, together with other greenhouse gases such as methane, and offset by some aspects of aerosol air pollution, are trapping energy equivalent to the detonation of <a href=\"https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/2020\/02\/earth-is-heating-at-a-rate-equivalent-to-five-atomic-bombs-per-second-or-two-hurricane-sandys\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">five Hiroshima-style atomic bombs per second<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>With more energy coming in than leaving, Earth\u2019s thermal energy increases, raising the temperature of land, oceans and air and melting ice.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Warming in the pipeline<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The effects of tampering with Earth\u2019s energy balance take time to show up. Think of what happens when you turn the hot water faucet all the way up on a cold winter day: The pipes are full of cold water, so it takes time for the warm water to get to you \u2013 hence the term \u201cpipeline warming.\u201d The warming hasn\u2019t been felt yet, but it is in the pipeline.<\/p>\n<p>There are three major reasons Earth\u2019s climate is expected to continue warming after emissions stop.<\/p>\n<p>First, the <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.mit.edu\/explainers\/greenhouse-gases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">leading contributors<\/a> to global warming \u2013 carbon dioxide and methane \u2013 linger in the atmosphere for a long time: about 10 years on average for methane, and a whopping 400 years for carbon dioxide, with some molecules sticking around for up to millennia. So, turning off emissions doesn\u2019t translate into instant reductions in the amount of these heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"prlPD\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/prlPD\/8\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Second, part of this warming has been offset by man-made emissions of another form of pollution: sulfate aerosols, tiny particles emitted by fossil fuel burning, that reflect sunlight out to space. Over the past century, this <a href=\"https:\/\/news.agu.org\/press-release\/aerosol-pollution-caused-decades-of-global-dimming\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">global dimming<\/a> has been <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Global_dimming#\/media\/File:Climate_Change_Attribution.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">masking the warming effect<\/a> of greenhouse emissions. But these and other man-made aerosols also harm <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lrb.co.uk\/the-paper\/v43\/n23\/david-wallace-wells\/ten-million-a-year\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">human health<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.epa.gov\/acidrain\/what-acid-rain\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the biosphere<\/a>. Removing those and short-lived greenhouse gases translates to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nclimate1424\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a few tenths of a degree<\/a> of additional warming over about a decade, before reaching a new equilibrium.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, Earth\u2019s climate takes time to adjust to any change in energy balance. About two-thirds of Earth\u2019s surface is made of water, sometimes very deep water, which is slow to take up the excess carbon and heat. So far, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/downloads\/report\/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter07.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">over 91% of the heat added by human activities<\/a>, and <a href=\"https:\/\/bg.copernicus.org\/articles\/10\/2169\/2013\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">about a quarter of the excess carbon<\/a>, have gone into the oceans. While land-dwellers may be grateful for this buffer, the extra heat contributes to sea level rise through <a href=\"https:\/\/sealevel.nasa.gov\/understanding-sea-level\/global-sea-level\/thermal-expansion\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">thermal expansion<\/a> and also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-018-0383-9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">marine heat waves<\/a>, while the extra carbon makes the ocean more corrosive to many shelled organisms, which can disrupt the ocean food chain.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"0iQ4J\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/0iQ4J\/6\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Earth\u2019s surface temperature, driven by the imbalance of radiant energy at the top of the atmosphere, and modulated by the enormous thermal inertia of its oceans, is still playing catch up with its <a href=\"https:\/\/vimeo.com\/34099316\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">biggest control knob<\/a>: carbon dioxide concentration.<\/p>\n<p><strong>How much warming?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So, how much committed warming are we in for? There isn\u2019t a clear answer.<\/p>\n<p>The world has already warmed more than 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 F) compared to pre-industrial levels. Nations worldwide agreed in 2015 to try to prevent the global average from rising more than 1.5\u00b0C (2.7 F) to limit the damage, but <a href=\"https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2021\/02\/1085812\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the world has been slow to react<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Determining the amount of warming ahead is complicated. Several <a href=\"https:\/\/iopscience.iop.org\/article\/10.1088\/1748-9326\/ac6ff6\/meta\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">recent studies<\/a> use climate models to estimate future warming. A <a href=\"https:\/\/bg.copernicus.org\/articles\/17\/2987\/2020\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">study of 18 Earth system models<\/a> found that when emissions were cut off, some continued warming for decades to hundreds of years, while others began cooling quickly. Another study, published in June 2022, found a <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41558-022-01372-y\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">42% chance that the world is already committed to 1.5 degrees<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The amount of warming matters because the dangerous consequences of global warming don\u2019t simply rise in proportion to global temperature; they typically increase exponentially, particularly for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/10.1073\/pnas.0906865106\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">food production<\/a> at risk from heat, drought and storms.<\/p>\n<p>Further, Earth has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pnas.org\/doi\/abs\/10.1073\/pnas.0705414105\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">tipping points<\/a> that could trigger irreversible changes to fragile parts of the Earth system, like glaciers or ecosystems. We won\u2019t necessarily know right away when the planet has passed a tipping point, because those changes are often slow to show up. This and other climate-sensitive systems are the basis for the precautionary principle of limiting warming under 2\u00b0C (3.6 F), and preferably, 1.5\u00b0C.<\/p>\n<p>The heart of the climate problem, embedded in this idea of committed warming, is that there are long delays between changes in human behavior and changes in the climate. While the precise amount of committed warming is still a matter of some contention, evidence shows the safest route forward is to urgently transition to a carbon-free, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/graphics\/2022-wealth-carbon-emissions-inequality-powers-world-climate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more equitable<\/a> economy that generates far less greenhouse gas emissions.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/184374\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/julien-emile-geay-1351305\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Julien Emile-Geay<\/a>, Associate Professor of Earth Sciences, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/usc-dornsife-college-of-letters-arts-and-sciences-2669\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/what-is-committed-warming-a-climate-scientist-explains-why-global-warming-can-continue-long-after-emissions-end-184374\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Because of humans, the concentration of planet-warming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now 50% higher than before the industrial era and these gases are raising Earth\u2019s temperature.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":735,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[66,65,199,83],"class_list":["post-732","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-sustainability","tag-climate-change","tag-environment","tag-julien-emile-geay","tag-the-conversation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What is \u2018committed warming\u2019? A climate scientist explains why global warming can continue long after emissions\u00a0end<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/what-is-committed-warming\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"What is \u2018committed warming\u2019? A climate scientist explains why global warming can continue long after emissions\u00a0end\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Because of humans, the concentration of planet-warming carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now 50% higher than before the industrial era and these gases are raising Earth\u2019s temperature.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/what-is-committed-warming\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"USC Dornsife News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/uscdornsife\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-06-09T18:20:00+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2024-05-16T15:51:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-3715.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"520\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Darrin Joy\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@uscdornsife\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@uscdornsife\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/what-is-committed-warming\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/what-is-committed-warming\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Darrin Joy\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/851085523b73581e3387a7fc90cadb96\"},\"headline\":\"What is \u2018committed warming\u2019? 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