{"id":6460,"date":"2015-12-17T09:05:00","date_gmt":"2015-12-17T17:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/oceanic-fossils-suggest-current-climate-models-misrepresent-el-nino\/"},"modified":"2024-04-26T16:16:28","modified_gmt":"2024-04-26T23:16:28","slug":"oceanic-fossils-suggest-current-climate-models-misrepresent-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/oceanic-fossils-suggest-current-climate-models-misrepresent-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"Oceanic fossils suggest current climate models misrepresent El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-2236-690x432.jpg\"\n                    data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"Oceanic fossils suggest current climate models misrepresent El Ni\u00f1o\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  This Leiopathes coral is estimated to be more than 4,200 years old.\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=faculty\">Faculty<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>Oceanic fossils suggest current climate models misrepresent El Ni\u00f1o<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Julien Emile-Geay of earth sciences at USC Dornsife finds clues to the fundamental physics of El Ni\u00f1o in millennia-old corals and clams.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Robert Perkins<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">December 17, 2015<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" 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fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>An analysis of fossil corals and mollusk shells from the Pacific Ocean reveals there is no link between the strength of seasonal differences and El Ni\u00f1o, a complex but irregular climate pattern with large impacts on weather, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, and air quality worldwide.<\/p>\n<p>The finding contradicts the top nine climate models in use today, which associate exceptionally hot summers and cold winters with weak El Ni\u00f1os, and vice versa.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe idea behind this link is based on very well-established physics, so it\u2019s appealing to think that nature works this way. But our analysis shows that it\u2019s not that simple,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/cf\/faculty-and-staff\/faculty.cfm?pid=1023062\">Julien Emile-Geay<\/a>, lead author of a study that contradicts the models and assistant professor of <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/earth\/\">earth sciences<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>His study was published on Dec. 14 in the journal <a href=\"http:\/\/universityofsoutherncalifornia.createsend1.com\/t\/j-l-hduujud-l-m\/\"><em>Nature Geoscience<\/em><\/a><em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Earth history through shells<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Emile-Geay checked the models against data collected by his coauthors on shells and fossil corals spanning the Holocene period \u2014 the last 10,000 years of Earth\u2019s history. The period had similar geography, amounts of ice and levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, making it a good analogue for today\u2019s climate.<\/p>\n<figure style=\"width: 225px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/migration-uploads\/ElNino2JEG-2236.jpg\" alt=\"Portrait of Julien Emile-Geay\" width=\"225\" height=\"300\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Julien Emile-Geay, assistant professor of earth sciences at USC Dornsife.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Because shells form by crystalizing calcium carbonate taken from the surrounding water, they record information about the temperature and salinity of that water. For example, the shells capture the prevalence of various isotopes of oxygen, which vary based on sea-surface temperature.<\/p>\n<p>Analyzing the composition of nearly 60 specimens through their thickness, the team was able to reconstruct a detailed history of climate in the tropical Pacific. The corals and clams were taken from various locations throughout the Pacific Ocean, creating a spatially and time-distributed data set that offered insight into both the amplitude of seasons and the intensity of El Ni\u00f1o via snapshots spanning the past 10 millennia.<\/p>\n<p>He then compared this dataset to the predictions of nine state-of-the-art climate models, and found a mismatch: the models generally fail to simulate lengthy periods of subdued El Ni\u00f1os like the one that occurred 3,000 to 5,000 years ago. The ones that came close did so by relying on an Earth-Sun configuration that ran contrary to observed conditions.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe causes for prolonged periods of weak El Ni\u00f1o are either beyond the current models, or we\u2019re missing an important piece of the puzzle,\u201d Emile-Geay said. \u201cThis points to deficiencies in the way these models simulate various aspects of tropical Pacific climate, from average conditions, to the march of seasons, to El Ni\u00f1o itself.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Possible foundation for a better model<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Emile-Geay said he hopes his findings will be used to refine climate models further, making them ever more accurate.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cBuilding climate models is like building a ladder to the Moon,\u201d Emile-Geay said. \u201cThey are not perfect but they are reaching for the heavens. It\u2019s a long process, and one in which the paleoclimate record can teach us a lot about the inner workings of the climate system.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Emile-Geay\u2019s team included researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology; the Universit\u00e9 de Montpellier, Sorbonne Universit\u00e9s, Universit\u00e9 de Bordeaux, Universit\u00e9 de Nantes, and IPSL\/LSCE in France; University of Wollongong in Australia; University of Exeter and University of Edinburgh in the UK; and the Universit\u00e4t Kiel in Germany.<\/p>\n<p>The research was supported by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/\">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/a>, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nsf.gov\/\">National Science Foundation<\/a>, and many others.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Julien Emile-Geay of earth sciences at USC Dornsife finds clues to the fundamental physics of El Ni\u00f1o in millennia-old corals and clams.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":6463,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[66,159,199,96],"class_list":["post-6460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-faculty","tag-climate-change","tag-earth-sciences","tag-julien-emile-geay","tag-natural-sciences"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oceanic fossils suggest current climate models misrepresent El Ni\u00f1o<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/oceanic-fossils-suggest-current-climate-models-misrepresent-el-nino\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" 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