{"id":4693,"date":"2017-11-07T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-11-07T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/with-key-elections-a-year-away-california-panel-study-begins-testing-political-waters\/"},"modified":"2023-04-19T11:08:49","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T18:08:49","slug":"with-key-elections-a-year-away-california-panel-study-begins-testing-political-waters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/with-key-elections-a-year-away-california-panel-study-begins-testing-political-waters\/","title":{"rendered":"With key elections a year away, California panel study begins testing political waters"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n            \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-2706-690x432.jpg\"\n                    data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"With key elections a year away, California panel study begins testing political waters\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  USC Dornsife and the <em>Los Angeles Times<\/em> are using methods developed in the landmark Daybreak poll to survey Californians on political issues.\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=social-impact\">Social Impact<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>With key elections a year away, California panel study begins testing political waters<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  The controversial landmark poll that predicted Trump\u2019s strong showing in the 2016 presidential election provides the framework for a new California survey collaboration.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Stephen Koenig<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">November 7, 2017<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  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0l7.2857142-6.34285719c-.0857142-.08571428-.2571428-.08571428-.4285714-.08571428zm-1.28571428 1.11428567v.1714286 8.5714286c0 .6857143.6 1.2857143 1.28571428 1.2857143h14.57142856c.6857143 0 1.2857143-.6 1.2857143-1.2857143v-8.5714286c0-.0857143 0-.0857143 0-.1714286l-7.2 6.3428572c-.7714286.6857143-1.8857143.6857143-2.6571429 0z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n  \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>&ldquo;As California goes, so goes the nation.&rdquo;&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Well, sometimes.<\/p>\n<p>The vast majority of national polls infamously predicted that Hillary Clinton would win last year&rsquo;s presidential contest.<\/p>\n<p>One conspicuous outlier was the <a href=\"http:\/\/cesrusc.org\/election\/\" target=\"_blank\">USC Dornsife\/<em>Los Angeles Times<\/em> Daybreak Poll<\/a>, which repeatedly indicated that Donald Trump was running ahead of Clinton in the weeks leading up to the election.<\/p>\n<p>Unlike typical polls, which contact a different sample for each survey, the Daybreak Poll engaged a panel of more than 4,500 people who responded to a survey over 17 weeks. Using this approach, researchers were able to measure a participant&rsquo;s level of certainty in his or her commitment to vote for a candidate.<\/p>\n<p>The Daybreak poll, part of the <a href=\"https:\/\/cesr.usc.edu\/data_toolbox\/understanding_america_study\" target=\"_blank\">Understanding America Study<\/a> at the USC Dornsife <a href=\"https:\/\/cesr.usc.edu\/data_toolbox\/understanding_america_study\" target=\"_blank\">Center for Economic and Social Research<\/a> (CESR), will now serve as the model for a new survey focused wholly on the state of California.<\/p>\n<p>The new survey will apply the same experimental methodology to observe how the political opinions of California panelists change over time. The focus will be on 2018 midterm elections &mdash; elections that feature races for California governor, U.S. Senator, and seven seats that will be critical in the Democratic Party&rsquo;s efforts to flip the House of Representatives blue.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/pressroom.usc.edu\/arie-kapteyn\/\" target=\"_blank\">Arie Kapteyn<\/a>, professor (research) of economics and director of CESR, said the California survey is a natural follow-up to the Daybreak poll.&nbsp;As the nation&rsquo;s most populous, diverse and economically influential state, heads often turn west when anticipating the future.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We will use this to check the pulse of California &mdash; to see what moves people, what their concerns are, and their political preferences,&rdquo; Kapteyn said.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Practical partnership<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Part of an expanded collaboration with CESR, the USC Dornsife <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/unruh\/\" target=\"_blank\">Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics<\/a> and the <em>Los Angeles Times<\/em>, initial results of the project will be published in a series of stories beginning on Nov. 9. It will establish benchmarks upon which the growing panel&rsquo;s opinions will be measured in the months leading up to next year&rsquo;s midterm elections.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"news-image-landscape news-image-right\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/migration-uploads\/Daybreak2-2706.jpg\" alt=\"Landscape Right\" width=\"450\"><\/p>\n<p>Jill Darling, left, and Arie Kapteyn of USC Dornsife&rsquo;s Center for Economic and Social Research.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>CESR staff were eager to partner with their Unruh Institute colleagues for design and analysis of the California survey. Led by Carmen Warschaw Professor of Practical Politics <a href=\"https:\/\/pressroom.usc.edu\/robert-shrum\/\" target=\"_blank\">Robert Shrum<\/a>, the Unruh Institute takes an academic approach to&nbsp;understanding California&rsquo;s distinct sociopolitical ecosystem. It has well-developed inroads to Sacramento and provides an insider&rsquo;s perspective on high-level policy issues.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We work together really well,&rdquo; said Kapteyn. &ldquo;For the California poll, the content will&nbsp;largely come from Unruh. Our main role is to take care of the implementation, give advice on how to formulate a question, and interpret the sample.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Among the issues the California surveys will benchmark are attitudes on the governor&rsquo;s race, state immigration policy, populism, information deserts, and whether California should be forging its own way on issues such as sustainability and the environment.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/cesr.usc.edu\/people\/staff\/jilldarl\" target=\"_blank\">Jill Darling<\/a>, survey director at CESR, said it starts with discussions between experts at CESR and Unruh on which statewide issues they would like to better understand.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;We are trying to leverage all of this knowledge and curiosity and different ways of looking at the problems we have,&rdquo; Darling said. &ldquo;We want to look beyond what people are saying about the typical questions of job approval and whom they are&nbsp;voting for to find out what&rsquo;s really driving them.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Stories behind the numbers<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Both Kapteyn and Darling emphasized that building a new survey is a challenging endeavor. Not only are there significant costs in establishing a representative sample, but there is also rigorous evaluation of the way questions are framed to eliminate as much bias as possible.<\/p>\n<p>Darling also maintains that a big consideration survey researchers grapple with today is how to communicate results in a way that is both useful in a media setting and also takes fully into account the prognostic aspect of predictive data.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s not an oracle stating from on high that this is the truth. It&rsquo;s our best estimate within a certain level of confidence,&rdquo; said Darling. &ldquo;And it&rsquo;s very hard to communicate that when a number looks like a hard and fast fact.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>She should know. The Daybreak Poll that Darling helped design incited rancor in the weeks leading up to the presidential election. Calbuzz, a popular online political commentary site, called it a &ldquo;world class flapdoodle&rdquo; and said it dishonors the newspaper.<\/p>\n<p>Will Californians react similarly to results of the new survey that might appear unpopular? Or has the Daybreak poll earned its <em>bona fides<\/em>?<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;It&rsquo;s easy to say [the results] are within the margin of error, but having that actually come across and be part of the dialogue is an ongoing struggle,&rdquo; said Darling. &ldquo;It has become even more crucial now to figure out a way to get that into the discourse somehow.&rdquo;<\/p>\n<p>Shrum says this challenge of communication is something the Unruh Institute can help address.<\/p>\n<p>&ldquo;Politics is all about the messages we use to influence decisions. Sometimes those messages don&rsquo;t get through, or they get messy,&rdquo; he said. &ldquo;Part of what we do at Unruh is make unbiased examinations of what is at the core of a politician&rsquo;s idea. Then we try to clarify that idea within civil and fact-based conversations the public can understand.&rdquo;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The controversial landmark poll that predicted Trump\u2019s strong showing in the 2016 presidential election provides the framework for a new California survey collaboration.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":4696,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[528,789,574,120,577,600],"class_list":["post-4693","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-social-impact","tag-arie-kapteyn","tag-center-for-social-and-economic-research","tag-daybreak-poll","tag-elections","tag-jesse-m-unruh-institute-of-politics","tag-robert-shrum"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin 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