{"id":2878,"date":"2020-03-04T13:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-04T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/bidens-resurrection-was-unprecedented-and-well-timed\/"},"modified":"2023-04-19T11:05:13","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T18:05:13","slug":"robert-shrum-analysis-super-tuesday-biden-sanders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/robert-shrum-analysis-super-tuesday-biden-sanders\/","title":{"rendered":"Biden\u2019s resurrection was unprecedented \u2014 and well-timed"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n            \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-3175-768x432.jpg\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-3175-1280x720.jpg 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-3175-768x432.jpg 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"Biden\u2019s resurrection was unprecedented \u2014 and well-timed\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks to supporters at a community event. (Photo: <span class=\"attribution\"><a   class=\"source\"   href=\" https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by-sa\/2.0\/legalcode\" target=\"_blank\">Gage Skidmore<\/a>.<\/span>)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=politics\">Politics<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>Biden\u2019s resurrection was unprecedented \u2014 and well-timed<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  The former vice president\u2019s resurrection from early campaign troubles was \u201csimply unprecedented,\u201d writes USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future Director Robert Shrum in The Conversation.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Robert Shrum<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">March 4, 2020<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path 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  >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>The dominant question going into Super Tuesday was: Did Joe Biden&rsquo;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/joe-biden-wins-the-south-carolina-democratic-primary-2020-2\">sweeping victory in South Carolina<\/a> come just in time, or was it too late?<\/p>\n<p>The answer is now clear. Biden <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/elections-2020\/biden-wins-8-super-tuesday-states-sanders-takes-california\/ar-BB10F0vq\">all-but-swept Super Tuesday<\/a> states, propelled by a tsunami of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.denverpost.com\/2020\/03\/01\/colorado-primary-president-undecided-voters\/\">late-deciding voters<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>A week ago, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.legalsportsbetting.com\/news\/bernie-sanders-could-take-super-tuesday-odds-by-storm\/\">prognosticators speculated that Bernie Sanders could emerge<\/a> from Super Tuesday&rsquo;s contests with an insurmountable delegate lead of more than 300 delegates. After that, since <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/monkey-cage\/wp\/2016\/02\/16\/everything-you-need-to-know-about-delegate-math-in-the-presidential-primary\/\">Democrats allocate delegates proportionally<\/a>, they said even if a Sanders challenger won a state 55% to 45%, Sanders&rsquo; delegate lead would narrow only marginally.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Biden&rsquo;s powerful showing on Super Tuesday saw him easily break the &ldquo;threshold&rdquo; level&nbsp;&mdash; the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.texastribune.org\/2020\/03\/03\/texas-2020-presidential-results-bernie-sanders-joe-biden\/\">15% of votes cast required to collect delegates<\/a>&nbsp;&mdash; virtually everywhere. He <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boston.com\/news\/politics\/2020\/03\/03\/joe-biden-massachusetts-democratic-primary\">carried Elizabeth Warren&rsquo;s home state of Massachusetts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/super-tuesday-results-sanders-wins-vermont-but-not-without-competition-from-biden\/ar-BB10FY1E\">outperformed projections in Sanders&rsquo; own Vermont<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2020\/primary-results-biden-sanders-03-04\">won Minnesota against all expectations<\/a>. Biden prevailed in the southern states, including the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usnews.com\/news\/elections\/articles\/2020-03-04\/voter-turnout-surges-in-several-key-super-tuesday-states-boosting-joe-biden\">mega-prize of Texas<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>While Sanders will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/politics\/super-tuesday-live-updates-sanders-wins-california-biden-takes-texas-bloomberg-drops-out\/ar-BB10HKvr\">come in first in California<\/a>, Biden will have a massive haul of delegates, especially as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncsl.org\/research\/elections-and-campaigns\/all-mail-elections.aspx\">mail-in ballots trickle in<\/a> post-Super Tuesday.<\/p>\n<h2>&lsquo;Prohibitive favorite&rsquo;<\/h2>\n<p>In fact, at this point, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/04\/upshot\/biden-sanders-delegate-count-analysis.html\">it&rsquo;s Biden, not Sanders, who leads in delegates<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Michael Bloomberg has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/elections-2020\/mike-bloomberg-is-suspending-his-presidential-campaign-says-hes-endorsing-biden\/ar-BB10JUNk?OCID=ansmsnnews11\">dropped out and endorsed Biden<\/a>. His <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2020\/mar\/04\/mike-bloomberg-quits-2020-primary-race-democrats\">money is limitless<\/a>, but his rationale for getting in&nbsp;&mdash; preventing a Sanders nomination as Biden faltered&nbsp;&mdash; collapsed.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-election\/after-super-tuesday-surge-biden-gets-new-boost-as-bloomberg-drops-out-idUSKBN20R0XX\">Bloomberg will now become Biden&rsquo;s wing-man<\/a>, potentially committing his vast resources and deep organization to the Biden cause.<\/p>\n<p>Warren, after her poor showing and her humiliating loss in Massachusetts, is &ldquo;<a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/campaign\/485898-warren-reassessing-campaign-after-disappointing-super-tuesday\">reassessing<\/a>.&rdquo; Her only rationale for continuing&nbsp;&mdash; that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.boston.com\/news\/politics\/2020\/03\/02\/elizabeth-warren-super-tuesday\">she can bring the Sanders and the non-Sanders coalitions together<\/a>&nbsp;&mdash; hardly seems plausible. It would mean the Democratic Party nominating someone who consistently finishes third or worse in most primaries.<\/p>\n<p>As ballots were cast on Super Tuesday, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/ThisWeek\/video\/joe-biden-wins-iowa-hes-off-races-nate-68229921\">estimated that Joe Biden would enter the convention with over 1,700 delegates<\/a>, while Bernie Sanders would claim over 1,300.<\/p>\n<p>To win outright, a candidate needs 1,991 delegates. The Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar delegates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2020\/03\/02\/campaign-live-updates\/\">seem mostly destined to move to Biden<\/a>. Hundreds of superdelegates are also available to vote for the former vice president on a second ballot if the convention needs it. All that makes Biden now the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee. His resurrection was swift, almost unbelievable and simply unprecedented in the modern history of Democratic presidential primaries.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/133029\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\"><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: http:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/robert-shrum-572914\">Robert Shrum<\/a>, Carmen H. and Louis Warschaw Chair in Practical Politics, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-southern-california-dornsife-college-of-letters-arts-and-sciences-2669\">University of Southern California &ndash; Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"http:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/bidens-resurrection-was-unprecedented-and-well-timed-133029\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The former vice president\u2019s resurrection from early campaign troubles was \u201csimply unprecedented,\u201d writes USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future Director Robert Shrum in The Conversation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":2881,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[503,120,87,83],"class_list":["post-2878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-center-for-the-political-future","tag-elections","tag-expert-viewpoint","tag-the-conversation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - 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