{"id":28460,"date":"2026-07-22T10:30:20","date_gmt":"2026-07-22T17:30:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/?p=28460"},"modified":"2026-07-22T10:49:52","modified_gmt":"2026-07-22T17:49:52","slug":"the-national-climate-assessment-is-broken-matthew-wielicki-as-lead-wont-help","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/the-national-climate-assessment-is-broken-matthew-wielicki-as-lead-wont-help\/","title":{"rendered":"The National Climate Assessment is broken \u2013 appointing Matthew Wielicki to lead it won\u2019t\u00a0help"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                                    \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/07\/hurricane-sandy-flooding-coast-2000x1150-1-768x432.jpg\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/07\/hurricane-sandy-flooding-coast-2000x1150-1-1920x1080.jpg 1920w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/07\/hurricane-sandy-flooding-coast-2000x1150-1-1280x720.jpg 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/07\/hurricane-sandy-flooding-coast-2000x1150-1-768x432.jpg 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"Aerial view of flooding and damage to homes along coast\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Damage like that caused to the New Jersey coast by \u201cSuperstorm\u201d Sandy is increasingly likely as climate change effects compound. (Image source: rawpixel\/public domain.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=social-impact\">Social Impact<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>The National Climate Assessment is broken \u2013 appointing Matthew Wielicki to lead it won\u2019t\u00a0help<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  What communities and businesses really need is information they can act on, with examples of what\u2019s worked elsewhere and why \u2014 and what fails.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Joe \u00c1rvai<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">July 22, 2026<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 2.518315-1.68841575 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xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m8.14285714 9.42857143c-.17142857 0-.34285714 0-.51428571.08571428l7.28571427 6.34285719c.3428572.2571428.6857143.2571428.9428572 0l7.2857142-6.34285719c-.0857142-.08571428-.2571428-.08571428-.4285714-.08571428zm-1.28571428 1.11428567v.1714286 8.5714286c0 .6857143.6 1.2857143 1.28571428 1.2857143h14.57142856c.6857143 0 1.2857143-.6 1.2857143-1.2857143v-8.5714286c0-.0857143 0-.0857143 0-.1714286l-7.2 6.3428572c-.7714286.6857143-1.8857143.6857143-2.6571429 0z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>In early July 2026, the Trump administration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/07\/09\/the-administration-has-a-new-climate-change-office-its-headed-by-a-climate-critic-00990916\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">quietly tapped Matthew Wielicki<\/a> to lead the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The move places a podcaster known for downplaying the threats of climate change \u2014 and importantly, someone who has <a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=6dLFg6QAAAAJ&amp;hl=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">not been meaningfully involved in research on climate change or its impacts<\/a> \u2013 at the top of one of the country\u2019s most important scientific enterprises, one mandated by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.congress.gov\/bill\/101st-congress\/senate-bill\/169\/all-info\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">federal law<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Under the law, the Global Change Research Program \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/toolkit.climate.gov\/organization\/usgcrp%E2%80%94us-global-change-research-program\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USGCRP<\/a> for short \u2014 is required to prepare and submit a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.c2es.org\/content\/national-climate-assessment\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Climate Assessment<\/a> to the president and Congress at least every four years. <a href=\"https:\/\/climate.mit.edu\/explainers\/national-climate-assessment\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Its purpose<\/a> is to help the country\u2019s businesses, communities and governments at all levels make better decisions about how to respond to the growing risks posed by climate change.<\/p>\n<p>The National Climate Assessments have done two things exceedingly well since the <a href=\"https:\/\/openclimate.org\/u-s-national-climate-assessments-complete\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">first report was released in 2000<\/a>: They have told hard truths about the risks that climate change poses to the United States, and they have made clear that, if left unchecked, those risks are going to get much worse.<\/p>\n<p>But despite the best intentions and science, the assessments have largely failed to fulfill a critical aspect of their mandate: They haven\u2019t provided decision-makers with a clear accounting of the range of national and local options for adapting to or mitigating climate risks. They have also remained largely silent on which adaptation or mitigation strategies are most appropriate in different places and under different climate scenarios. And they have said next to nothing about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/us\/universitypress\/subjects\/psychology\/social-psychology\/psychological-foundations-climate-solutions-individual-minds-collective-climate-action\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">how to make decisions<\/a> in the face of the risks \u2014 and inevitable uncertainties \u2014 posed by climate change.<\/p>\n<p>This is why I have argued that the National Climate Assessment, and other climate reports like it, are broken and in urgent need of repair. I come to this conclusion from my experience as an <a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=oNPz5m0AAAAJ&amp;hl=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">interdisciplinary climate<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/chds.hsph.harvard.edu\/approaches\/what-is-decision-science\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">decision scientist<\/a>, as a member of the team that reviewed the Fourth National Climate Assessment beginning in 2017 and as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalacademies.org\/read\/23569\/chapter\/1#v\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">chair of a National Academies working group<\/a> charged with figuring out how climate reports like the National Climate Assessment could better support decision-makers in business and government.<\/p>\n<p>Fixing a broken National Climate Assessment is the job of the person in charge of the USGCRP. But the fix it needs isn\u2019t pretending that climate change isn\u2019t happening \u2014 the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-water-cycle-is-intensifying-as-the-climate-warms-ipcc-report-warns-that-means-more-intense-storms-and-flooding-165590\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">evidence is everywhere<\/a> in extreme downpours, deadly heat waves and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.c2es.org\/content\/drought-and-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">severe droughts<\/a>. The real fix is to expand the focus of the National Climate Assessment from just reporting the causes and consequences of climate risks to providing better advice about how to manage them.<\/p>\n<h2>Why sharing solutions also matters<\/h2>\n<p>To be fair, scientists who develop assessments like this focus on the evidence; they tend to avoid recommending particular courses of action because doing so would require making explicit value judgments that extend beyond the scientific evidence. This is a level of restraint that many people have come to expect from the scientific community.<\/p>\n<p>But as the risks posed by climate change have become more acute, this omission has limited the National Climate Assessment\u2019s usefulness for leaders in business and government who might want \u2014 or need \u2014 to use it.<\/p>\n<p>Imagine learning from your doctor that you have been diagnosed with a serious illness, only to be ushered out of the office before hearing about either your treatment options or what other patients have done, and how they have fared,\u00a0under similar circumstances. That\u2019s largely the story of the National Climate Assessment. It does a terrific job of enumerating risks, but a poor job of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cambridge.org\/us\/universitypress\/subjects\/psychology\/social-psychology\/psychological-foundations-climate-solutions-individual-minds-collective-climate-action\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">helping people decide how \u2014 and, in some cases, even if<\/a> \u2014 they should manage them.<\/p>\n<h2>The National Climate Assessment under Trump<\/h2>\n<p>Appointing Wielicki, a former geochemistry instructor and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2026\/jul\/10\/trump-climate-report-matthew-wielicki\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">climate science critic<\/a>, to lead the USGCRP and oversee the National Climate Assessment won\u2019t address the report\u2019s shortcomings. In fact, I expect it will make them worse.<\/p>\n<p>Given the administration\u2019s history, it\u2019s not a stretch to imagine a USGCRP under Wielicki\u2019s leadership soft-pedaling climate risks or, worse, <a href=\"https:\/\/science.nasa.gov\/climate-change\/evidence\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">amplifying the debunked<\/a> \u201cclimate change is a hoax\u201d narrative <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eenews.net\/articles\/con-scam-hoax-trumps-un-speech-on-climate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">advanced by the Trump White House<\/a>. Why? Because it\u2019s already happening.<\/p>\n<p>The administration <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eenews.net\/articles\/why-trump-axed-the-global-change-research-program\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">dismantled the USGCRP in 2025<\/a>. Then it commissioned a group of climate skeptics to write their own government report dismissing the risks of climate change, part of an effort to buttress the administration\u2019s moves <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/epa-rescinds-2009-endangerment-finding-clearing-way-for-trump-to-shred-more-us-climate-rules-but-serious-court-challenges-await-274194\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">to rescind a decades-old federal finding<\/a> that climate change endangers public health and welfare. A court later determined that the report was <a href=\"https:\/\/library.edf.org\/AssetLink\/j0s1oj2lwi027ldk6y45xnnx3353t1y2.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">illegally produced<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the world\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/news\/media-centre\/wmo-confirms-2025-was-one-of-warmest-years-record\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10 hottest years on record<\/a> have all happened since 2015, and Americans across the country are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalacademies.org\/projects\/NRCEO-CCX-25-02\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">experiencing climate change<\/a> in worsening storms, riskier floods and fires, extreme heat and drought. Leaders are looking for ways to alleviate those risks. Indeed, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/stories\/2024\/01\/climate-action-for-profitable-business-growth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">long-term success of their businesses<\/a> demands that they do so.<\/p>\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" id=\"immef\" class=\"tc-infographic-datawrapper\" style=\"border: 0;\" title=\"How global temperatures have risen over time\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/immef\/4\/\" width=\"100%\" height=\"400px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><figcaption>Baseline is the 20th-century global average; a 1\u00b0C increase = 1.8\u00b0F<br \/>\nChart: The Conversation\/CC-BY-NDSource: NOAA | Get the data | <a href=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/immef\/4\/#embed\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Embed<\/a> | <a href=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/immef\/full.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download image<\/a> | Created with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.datawrapper.de\/_\/immef\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Datawrapper<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>What decision-makers in business and government across the country <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/bpp.2020.37\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">really need<\/a> isn\u2019t deflection or denial. They need information about the costs, benefits and uncertainties associated with different climate risk-management options that they can act on.<\/p>\n<p>They also need a clearer picture of the <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1017\/bpp.2020.37\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">trade-offs<\/a> associated with acting now, delaying action or, in some cases, choosing to do nothing.<\/p>\n<p>Over time, an improved National Climate Assessment would build a searchable library of practical and relatable case studies of climate risk-management decisions. They would describe, among thousands of examples, why and how New York City used scenario planning to <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.com\/International\/york-city-preparing-expected-rising-sea-levels-climate\/story?id=83032976\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prepare for sea-level rise and more intense storms<\/a>; why Flagstaff, Arizona, turned to a ballot initiative to <a href=\"https:\/\/flagstaffwatershedprotection.org\/about\/background\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">address flood and wildfire risks<\/a>; how places from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wcax.com\/2026\/02\/11\/vermont-officials-consider-move-toward-clean-vs-renewable-energy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Burlington, Vermont<\/a>, to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.canarymedia.com\/articles\/enn\/how-100-renewables-backfired-on-a-texas-town\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Georgetown, Texas<\/a>, fared after transitioning their electricity grids exclusively to renewables; and why governments in South Florida have <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.ocecoaman.2026.108291\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">continued to avoid policies<\/a> that would limit development or pursue managed retreat from vulnerable areas despite swelling political and scientific consensus about the long-term risks.<\/p>\n<p>Cases like these are what would form the backbone of a more effective National Climate Assessment.<\/p>\n<h2>Providing candid, useful examples to follow<\/h2>\n<p>One key to making these case studies useful is to be <a href=\"https:\/\/policyoptions.irpp.org\/2014\/05\/an-appeal-for-smarter-decisions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">candid about the strengths and weaknesses<\/a> of competing options for managing risk, including maintaining the status quo.<\/p>\n<p>Another is to provide guidance on how the lessons from each case can be adapted to different places and different kinds of risks.<\/p>\n<p>An important third key is to keep these cases <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1007\/s10584-006-9094-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">updated over time<\/a> so users of the National Climate Assessment can learn from the outcomes of others\u2019 decisions.<\/p>\n<p>All three are well within the grasp of the USGCRP if it is operating under knowledgeable and experienced leadership.<\/p>\n<p>And this brings us back to the analogy of the doctor and the patient. Some patients will opt for treatment, while others will choose to ignore their diagnosis. It\u2019s the same story for how organizations and governments respond, or not, to climate change.<\/p>\n<p>Only by developing a better understanding of how and why specific decisions to act on climate were made, and then what happened next, can those charged with managing future climate risks be better prepared to confront decisions about climate action when it\u2019s their turn to make them.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/288033\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/joe-arvai-170276\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Joe \u00c1rvai<\/a>, Dana and David Dornsife Chair, Wrigley Institute Director and Professor of Psychology, Biological Sciences and Environmental Studies, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/usc-dornsife-college-of-letters-arts-and-sciences-2669\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-national-climate-assessment-is-broken-appointing-matthew-wielicki-to-lead-it-wont-help-288033\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n        \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          Related Articles\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/priceschool.usc.edu\/news\/us-army-rotc-usc-price\/\" \n         target=\"_blank\"                 class=\"\" \n      >History and ROTC prepared USC Dornsife grad for the military<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/global-summer-research\/\" \n         target=\"_blank\"                 class=\"\" \n      >USC Dornsife scholars venture around the world in pursuit of answers<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/usc-students-explore-conservation-careers-on-catalina-island\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >USC students explore conservation careers on Catalina Island<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n            <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What communities and businesses really need is information they can act on, with examples of what\u2019s worked elsewhere and why \u2014 and what fails, argues a decision science scholar.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":28463,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,24,15],"tags":[66,87,112,83,1897],"class_list":["post-28460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","category-social-impact","category-sustainability","tag-climate-change","tag-expert-viewpoint","tag-psychology","tag-the-conversation","tag-wrigley-institute-for-environment-and-sustainability"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The National Climate Assessment is broken \u2013 appointing Matthew Wielicki to lead it won\u2019t\u00a0help<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Communities and businesses really need information they can act on, 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