{"id":27619,"date":"2026-05-07T11:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-07T18:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/?p=27619"},"modified":"2026-05-06T15:45:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T22:45:08","slug":"myanmar-earthquake-reveals-clues-about-future-quake-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/myanmar-earthquake-reveals-clues-about-future-quake-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"What a devastating earthquake revealed about future quake risk"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                          \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/barbot-myanmar-quake-top-768x432.jpg\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/barbot-myanmar-quake-top-1920x1080.jpg 1920w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/barbot-myanmar-quake-top-1280x720.jpg 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/barbot-myanmar-quake-top-768x432.jpg 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"Two boys sit on a fallen, burnt tree and eat lunch with rubble behind them\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Sein Pan Ward in Mandalay, Myanmar, was all but destroyed by the March 2025 earthquake and resulting fires. (Image source: Wikimedia Commons.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=science-and-technology\">Science and Technology<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>What a devastating earthquake revealed about future quake risk<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  A USC Dornsife-led study found that faults that appear simple can produce surprisingly complex earthquakes.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">USC Dornsife News<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">May 7, 2026<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 2.518315-1.68841575 4.0350275 0 1.5167124.60096154 2.9475732 1.68841575 4.0350274 1.058837 1.0874543 2.51831502 1.6884158 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\n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          Key findings:\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n      <ul>\n              <li><p>A study of the 2025 Myanmar earthquake, published in <em>Science<\/em>, found that seemingly \u201csimple\u201d faults can behave in surprisingly complex ways.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n              <li><p>Small differences in how parts of a fault move over time may influence where quakes start and how far they spread.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n              <li><p>The findings could improve risk estimates for major faults, including California\u2019s San Andreas.<\/p>\n<\/li>\n          <\/ul>\n  <\/div>\n  \n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>A devastating earthquake in Myanmar is giving scientists new insight into how major quakes start, spread and grow. The findings could improve risk estimates for dangerous faults around the world.<\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/science.ady3237\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">new study<\/a>, published in the journal <em>Science<\/em> and led by researchers at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, finds that faults that appear structurally simple can produce surprisingly complex earthquakes.<\/p>\n<p>The research focuses on the magnitude 7.7 quake <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=77ubC4bcgRM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">that struck<\/a> near Mandalay, Myanmar, in March 2025, killing more than 3,600 people and causing damage estimated at up to 14% of the country\u2019s economy.<\/p>\n<p>It also puzzled scientists.<\/p>\n<p>The Sagaing Fault, where the quake occurred, is long and relatively smooth, without the sharp bends or major branches that often help explain why a rupture stops in one place and spreads in another.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Sagaing Fault looks relatively simple, but this earthquake ruptured across multiple sections of it,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/profile\/sylvain-barbot\/\">Sylvain Barbot<\/a>, professor of <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/earth\/\">Earth sciences<\/a> at USC Dornsife and senior researcher on the study. \u201cThat raises an important question: What controls how large earthquakes grow?\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>Study rattles long-held earthquake assumptions<\/h2>\n<p>To investigate, the scientists used satellite radar data to map how the ground shifted during the quake. They then combined those observations with computer models that simulate how stress builds up and releases along faults over hundreds to thousands of years. The rupture stretched about 450 kilometers \u2014 roughly the distance from Los Angeles to San Francisco.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_27623\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-27623\" style=\"width: 500px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-27623 size-medium\" src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/barbot-myanmar-quake-in-story-500x513.jpg\" alt=\"Map of Myanmar and surrounding countries, with a narrow band transitioning from red to orange to yellow from the center\" width=\"500\" height=\"513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/barbot-myanmar-quake-in-story-500x513.jpg 500w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/barbot-myanmar-quake-in-story-768x788.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/05\/barbot-myanmar-quake-in-story.jpg 980w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-27623\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Heat map shows the intensity of the Myanmar earthquake along a 400-mile path in Myanmar. (Image source: USGS.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The analysis pointed to an important driver of earthquake behavior: Different parts of a fault don\u2019t move at the same rate. Over time, even modest differences \u2014 sometimes just 10% to 20% \u2014 can build uneven stress along the fault, influencing where earthquakes start, how far they spread and whether they remain confined or jump into neighboring segments.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEven on a relatively straight fault, small differences in how nearby sections move over time can influence whether a rupture remains contained or grows into something much larger,\u201d said <a href=\"https:\/\/liumq12.github.io\/\">Mingqi Liu<\/a>, the study\u2019s corresponding author, who conducted the research as a postdoctoral scholar at USC Dornsife and is now at ENS Paris.<\/p>\n<p>In the researchers\u2019 simulations, those differences caused ruptures to break into segments or, in some cases, to jump from one segment to another. That may help explain why the 2025 Myanmar quake didn\u2019t stop where scientists might have expected.<\/p>\n<p>The findings also challenge the long-standing <a href=\"https:\/\/central.scec.org\/publication\/1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">seismic gap hypothesis<\/a>, which holds that a stretch of fault that hasn\u2019t ruptured in a long time may be due for a major quake.<\/p>\n<p>But in Myanmar, the rupture appears to have started outside a known seismic gap, then continued through it and beyond.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSeismic gaps can tell you where stress might be building,\u201d Liu said. \u201cBut they don\u2019t necessarily tell you where a quake will start \u2014 or how far it will go.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>New earthquake insights matter beyond Myanmar<\/h2>\n<p>Many major faults around the world \u2014 including California\u2019s San Andreas Fault and New Zealand\u2019s Alpine Fault \u2014 are relatively simple in shape. If long-term differences in motion can influence earthquake behavior on the Sagaing Fault, similar processes may be at work on other major faults, as well.<\/p>\n<p>That broader relevance is where the research may have practical value. \u201cWe\u2019re getting to a point where we can start making more meaningful assessments of seismic hazard,\u201d Barbot said. \u201cThe same kind of modeling could be applied to places like California or Turkey to better understand what future earthquakes might look like.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The findings suggest that scientists need to look beyond a fault\u2019s visible structure and pay closer attention to how it moves over time.<\/p>\n<p>The researchers emphasize that earthquake modeling remains inherently challenging. Their simulations rely on some simplifying assumptions, and certain properties of real faults still can\u2019t be measured directly. Even so, Barbot says the models reproduced the main features of the rupture and offer a useful framework for understanding how large earthquakes can grow.<\/p>\n<p>Despite its limitations, the study highlights a broader shift in how scientists think about earthquake hazard. Rather than asking only where a fault might break, researchers are increasingly examining how the entire fault system evolves over time \u2014 and how past earthquakes leave behind stress patterns that shape the next one.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cEarthquakes have a kind of memory,\u201d Liu said. \u201cWhat happened before influences what happens next.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Combining satellite data, geological records and advanced simulations may enable scientists to build better quake risk estimates for major faults and give communities clearer information about the hazards they face.<\/p>\n<h2>About the study<\/h2>\n<p>In addition to Barbot and Liu, authors on the study include Binhao Wang and Sezim Guvercin at USC Dornsife; Zhen Li and Teng Wang of Peking University; and Chuanjin Liu and Lingyun Ji of the China Earthquake Administration.<\/p>\n<p>The study was funded by U.S. National Science Foundation grant EAR-1848192, the Swiss National Science Foundation Postdoc Mobility Fellowship P500PN 214251, and National Natural Science Foundation of China grants 42374019 and 42474013.<\/p>\n<p><em>Editor\u2019s Note: Jim Key and Darrin S. Joy contributed to this story.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n        \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          Related Articles\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/usc-dornsife-magazine-wins-prsa-2026-bronze-anvil-award\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >USC Dornsife Magazine honored with one of the communications field\u2019s most prestigious awards<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/usc-dornsife-graduate-wins-us-innovation-competition-heads-to-world-final\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >USC Dornsife graduate wins US innovation competition, heads to world final<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/is-ai-really-writing-ancient-authors-would-have-said-no\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Is AI really \u2018writing\u2019? From a priestess to philosophers, ancient authors would have said\u00a0\u2018no\u2019<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n            <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A USC Dornsife-led study found that faults that appear simple can produce surprisingly complex earthquakes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":27622,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,16],"tags":[159,207,96],"class_list":["post-27619","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dornsife-global","category-science-and-technology","tag-earth-sciences","tag-earthquakes","tag-natural-sciences"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What a devastating earthquake 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