{"id":26773,"date":"2026-03-02T12:03:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T20:03:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/?p=26773"},"modified":"2026-03-02T12:03:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T20:03:33","slug":"failure-of-us-iran-talks-was-all-too-predictable-but-trump-could-still-have-stuck-with-diplomacy-over-strikes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/failure-of-us-iran-talks-was-all-too-predictable-but-trump-could-still-have-stuck-with-diplomacy-over-strikes\/","title":{"rendered":"Failure of US\u2011Iran talks was all\u2011too predictable \u2013 but Trump could still have stuck with diplomacy over\u00a0strikes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                          \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/03\/us-iran-talks-rathburn-top-768x432.jpg\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/03\/us-iran-talks-rathburn-top-1920x1080.jpg 1920w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/03\/us-iran-talks-rathburn-top-1280x720.jpg 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2026\/03\/us-iran-talks-rathburn-top-768x432.jpg 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"Silhouette of two doves in front of US and Iranian flags\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  When it came to U.S.-Iran talks, the writing was on the wall. (Image source: iStock.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=politics\">Politics<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>Failure of US\u2011Iran talks was all\u2011too predictable \u2013 but Trump could still have stuck with diplomacy over\u00a0strikes<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Silence from the U.S. side after a third round of indirect talks and frustration expressed by President Donald Trump set the stage for military strikes.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Nina Srinivasan Rathbun <\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">March 2, 2026<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 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xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m8.14285714 9.42857143c-.17142857 0-.34285714 0-.51428571.08571428l7.28571427 6.34285719c.3428572.2571428.6857143.2571428.9428572 0l7.2857142-6.34285719c-.0857142-.08571428-.2571428-.08571428-.4285714-.08571428zm-1.28571428 1.11428567v.1714286 8.5714286c0 .6857143.6 1.2857143 1.28571428 1.2857143h14.57142856c.6857143 0 1.2857143-.6 1.2857143-1.2857143v-8.5714286c0-.0857143 0-.0857143 0-.1714286l-7.2 6.3428572c-.7714286.6857143-1.8857143.6857143-2.6571429 0z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>Three rounds of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/articles\/u-s-iran-hold-third-round-of-nuclear-talks\">nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran<\/a> failed to persuade President Donald Trump that a solution to the two country\u2019s nuclear impasse lay in diplomacy, rather than military action. A <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/articles\/trump-says-hes-not-happy-185042994.html\">perceived lack of progress<\/a> in the last of those indirect negotiations on Feb. 26, was enough to prompt Trump to green-light a <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/despite-massive-us-attack-and-death-of-ayatollah-regime-change-in-iran-is-unlikely-277180\">massive onslaught of missiles<\/a> that has degraded Iran\u2019s offensive capabilities and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/ayatollah-ali-khamenei-ruled-iran-with-defiance-and-brutality-for-36-years-for-many-iranians-he-will-not-be-revered-259268\">killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei<\/a> and several members of Iran\u2019s senior military leadership.<\/p>\n<p>In response, Tehran has launched <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c4g0pnnj8xyo\">strikes across the Middle East<\/a>, targeting Israel as well as Gulf states that host U.S. airbases. At least <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/03\/01\/nx-s1-5731365\/us-israeli-strikes-region\">three Americans have been killed<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>While the scale of the U.S., Israeli and Iranian strikes has taken <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/national-security\/2026\/02\/28\/us-israel-military-operation-epic-fury-iran\/\">some observers by surprise<\/a>, the failure of the talks that led to them was all too predictable.<\/p>\n<p>For diplomacy to be successful, both sides need to agree on the issues subject to negotiation and also believe that peaceful resolution is more valuable than military engagement. This clearly was not the case in the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks of 2025 and 2026.<\/p>\n<p>As someone who has <a href=\"https:\/\/munkschool.utoronto.ca\/person\/nina-srinivasan-rathbun\">researched nonproliferation and U.S. national security<\/a> for two decades and was involved in State Department nuclear diplomacy, I know that even under more favorable conditions, negotiations often fail. And the chances for success in the Iran-U.S. talks were always slim. In fact, publicly stated red lines by both sides were incompatible with each other \u2014 meaning negotiations were always likely to fail.<\/p>\n<p>Iran wanted the talks confined only to guarantees about the civilian purpose of its nuclear program, not its missile program, support of regional proxy groups or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/reports\/2024-country-reports-on-human-rights-practices\/iran\">human rights abuses<\/a>. Essentially it wanted a return to 2015\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/2009-2017.state.gov\/e\/eb\/tfs\/spi\/iran\/jcpoa\/\">Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action<\/a>, which halted Iran\u2019s development of nuclear technology and stockpiling of nuclear material in exchange for lifting multiple international economic sanctions placed on Iran.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Trump insisted on limits to Iran\u2019s ballistic missiles and the cutting of Tehran\u2019s support for regional militias. These were not included in the 2015 agreement, with parties ultimately deciding that a nuclear deal was better than the alternative of no deal at all.<\/p>\n<h2>False hope<\/h2>\n<p>Nevertheless, there had been a slim chance for a breakthrough of late.<\/p>\n<p>While the positions of both the U.S. and Iranian governments had ossified since May 8, 2018 \u2014 the date when the first Trump administration <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.com\/Politics\/trump-announce-us-withdrawing-iran-nuclear-deal-sources\/story?id=55017606\">withdrew the United States<\/a> from the Obama-era Iran nuclear deal \u2014 there had been some recent movement by Iran, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/01\/us\/politics\/iran-trump-diplomacy-fail.html\">former U.S. diplomats<\/a> involved in negotiations during the Obama and Biden administrations.<\/p>\n<p>With U.S. military building up in the region, Iran appeared <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/26\/world\/middleeast\/iran-us-talks.html\">more willing to negotiate<\/a> within the nuclear arena than before. There were plausible solutions to the issue of Iran\u2019s enrichment of uranium capabilities, including maintaining a minimum domestic capacity to develop medical isotopes and a removal of Iran\u2019s stockpile of enriched uranium necessary to build a nuclear bomb.<\/p>\n<p>There was less openness on other points of contention. Notably, there was no movement on ballistic missiles, which had always been a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/2\/7\/iran-says-oman-mediated-talks-with-us-a-good-start\">red line<\/a>. On the eve of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/us-iran-set-high-stakes-nuclear-talks-geneva-threat-war-looms-2026-02-17\/\">round of discussions<\/a> held in Geneva on Feb. 17, Trump stated: \u201cI think they want to make a deal.\u201d Iran\u2019s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, noted progress over the \u201cguiding principles\u201d of the talks.<\/p>\n<p>But a lot of this optimism appeared to have dissipated by the time the two sides held another round of talks on Feb. 26. While mediator Oman\u2019s negotiators continued to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/us-iran-nuclear-talks-resume-geneva-against-backdrop-military-threat-2026-02-26\/\">talk of progress<\/a>, the U.S. side was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/02\/26\/world\/middleeast\/iran-us-talks.html\">noticeably silent<\/a>. Reporting since has suggested that Trump was <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iran-us-israel-embassy-staff-436162f886bdaed30c8dd0cdbe1b5aea\">displeased with the way the talks had gone<\/a>, setting the stage for the Feb. 28 attack.<\/p>\n<h2>Military brinkmanship<\/h2>\n<p>The threat of military action was, of course, a continued backdrop to the talks.<\/p>\n<p>The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c1d64p3q2d0o\">deployed near Iranian waters<\/a> in January as a signal of support to the Iranian protesters. The USS Gerald R Ford carrier <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c1d64p3q2d0o\">group joined the buildup<\/a> before the last round of talks.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/homenews\/administration\/5727581-trump-us-iran-talks-consequences-tariffs\/\">Trump warned Iran that<\/a> \u201cif they don\u2019t make a deal, the consequences are very steep.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The thinking may have been that Iran, weakened by both the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usni.org\/magazines\/proceedings\/2025\/june\/iran-israel-conflict-quicklook-analysis-operation-rising-lion\">June 2025 U.S.-Israeli strikes<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/new-atlanticist\/hezbollah-is-diminished-decapitated-and-in-disarray-but-still-dangerous\/\">diminished capabilities of Tehran proxies Hamas and Hezbollah<\/a>, was playing a weak hand in the talks.<\/p>\n<p>Yet Iran also signaled a willingness to engage in military action. In the run-up to the last round of talks, Iran held military exercises and closed the Strait of Hormuz for a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thenationalnews.com\/news\/mena\/2026\/02\/17\/iran-strait-of-hormuz-closure\/\">live-fire drill<\/a>. Leaders in Tehran also declared that they would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/2\/11\/iran-says-missile-programme-non-negotiable-as-tehran-washington-eye-talks\">not restrain its response<\/a> to another attack. The world is seeing that now, with a response that has seen Iran launch <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c4g0pnnj8xyo\">missiles across the Middle East and at rival Gulf nations<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h2>Optimism has fallen before<\/h2>\n<p>Trump isn\u2019t the first president to fail to secure a nuclear deal, although he is the first to respond to that failure with military action.<\/p>\n<p>The Biden administration publicly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/articles\/bidens-first-foreign-policy-move-reentering-international-agreements-2\">pledged to strengthen and renew<\/a> the Obama-era nuclear deal in 2021. However, Iran had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/factsheets\/status-irans-nuclear-program-1\">significantly increased its nuclear technical capability<\/a> during the years that had passed since the <a href=\"https:\/\/2009-2017.state.gov\/e\/eb\/tfs\/spi\/iran\/jcpoa\/\">Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action<\/a> collapsed. That increased the difficulty \u2014 just to return to the previous deal would have required Iran to give up the new technical capability it had achieved for no new benefits.<\/p>\n<p>That window closed in 2022 after <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2022\/6\/8\/iran-dismantles-nuclear-monitoring-cameras-after-iaea-censure\">Iran removed all<\/a> of the International Atomic Energy Agency\u2019s surveillance and monitoring under the deal and started enriching uranium to near-weapons levels and stockpiling sufficient amounts for several nuclear weapons. The IAEA, the United Nations\u2019 nuclear watchdog, maintains only normal safeguards that Iran had agreed to before the plan of action.<\/p>\n<p>Optimism also existed for a short time in <a href=\"https:\/\/thebulletin.org\/2025\/06\/a-simple-timeline-of-irans-nuclear-program\/\">spring 2025<\/a> during five rounds of indirect talks that preceded the United States <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/06\/21\/middleeast\/nuclear-sites-iran-us-bombs-wwk-intl\">bombing Iran\u2019s nuclear infrastructure<\/a> in June as part of a broader Israeli attack.<\/p>\n<h2>A more unstable Middle East<\/h2>\n<p>When I worked in multilateral nuclear diplomacy for the U.S. State Department, we saw talks fail in 2009 regarding North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons program, after six years of on-and-off progress. The consequence of that failure is a more unstable East Asia and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.csis.org\/analysis\/will-south-koreas-nuclear-ambitions-subside-next-five-years\">renewed interest<\/a> by South Korea in developing nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, the same dynamic appears to be playing out in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>Military strikes have already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/world\/iran\/live-blog\/iran-attack-strikes-us-israel-trump-khamenei-dead-live-updates-rcna261172\">killed more than 200<\/a> in Iran and across the region. A wider war in the Middle East is a possibility, and should the Iranian regime survive, it may commit to developing nuclear weapons given that the lack of them proved no deterrent to U.S. and Israeli military action.<\/p>\n<p>Talks do not necessarily need an end point \u2014 in the shape of a deal \u2014 for them to have purpose. Under situations of increased military brinkmanship, talks could have helped the U.S. and Iran step back from the edge, build trust and perhaps develop better political relations \u2014 even if an actual deal remained out of reach.<\/p>\n<p>Instead, Trump opted to go a different route.<\/p>\n<p><em>This article includes sections <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/iran-us-nuclear-talks-may-fail-due-to-both-nations-red-lines-but-that-doesnt-make-them-futile-275530\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">originally published<\/a> by The Conversation U.S. on Feb. 17, 2026.<\/em><!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/277209\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/nina-srinivasan-rathbun-1333993\">Nina Srinivasan Rathbun<\/a>, Professor of <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/poir\/\">International Relations<\/a>, Munk School of Global Affairs &amp; Public Policy, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-toronto-1281\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">University of Toronto<\/a><\/em>; <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/usc-dornsife-college-of-letters-arts-and-sciences-2669\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/failure-of-us-iran-talks-was-all-too-predictable-but-trump-could-still-have-stuck-with-diplomacy-over-strikes-277209\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n        \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          Related Articles\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/dexter-holland-the-offspring-usc-dornsife-commencement-speaker-2026\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Dexter Holland, frontman for rock band The Offspring, 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indirect talks and frustration expressed by President Donald Trump set the stage for military strikes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":26778,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,50],"tags":[87,119,83],"class_list":["post-26773","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-faculty","category-politics","tag-expert-viewpoint","tag-political-science-and-international-relations","tag-the-conversation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Failure of US\u2011Iran talks was all\u2011too predictable \u2013 but Trump could still have stuck with diplomacy over\u00a0strikes<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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