{"id":22855,"date":"2025-01-17T09:27:35","date_gmt":"2025-01-17T17:27:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/?p=22855"},"modified":"2025-01-17T09:38:53","modified_gmt":"2025-01-17T17:38:53","slug":"israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-shows-limits-of-us-influence-trump-unpredictable-impact","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-shows-limits-of-us-influence-trump-unpredictable-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel-Hamas deal shows limits of US influence \u2013 and the unpredictable impact of\u00a0Trump"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                          \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/01\/Treverton_Ceasefire_Top-768x432.jpg\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/01\/Treverton_Ceasefire_Top-1920x1080.jpg 1920w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/01\/Treverton_Ceasefire_Top-1280x720.jpg 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2025\/01\/Treverton_Ceasefire_Top-768x432.jpg 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"Collage of United States of America, Israel and Palestine flags\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  The U.S. helped solidify a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel that is slated to go into effect Sunday. (Image source: iStock.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=politics\">Politics<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>Israel-Hamas deal shows limits of US influence \u2013 and the unpredictable impact of\u00a0Trump<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are taking credit for the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. It is expected to take effect one day before Biden leaves office.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Gregory F. Treverton<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">January 17, 2025<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 2.518315-1.68841575 4.0350275 0 1.5167124.60096154 2.9475732 1.68841575 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xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m8.14285714 9.42857143c-.17142857 0-.34285714 0-.51428571.08571428l7.28571427 6.34285719c.3428572.2571428.6857143.2571428.9428572 0l7.2857142-6.34285719c-.0857142-.08571428-.2571428-.08571428-.4285714-.08571428zm-1.28571428 1.11428567v.1714286 8.5714286c0 .6857143.6 1.2857143 1.28571428 1.2857143h14.57142856c.6857143 0 1.2857143-.6 1.2857143-1.2857143v-8.5714286c0-.0857143 0-.0857143 0-.1714286l-7.2 6.3428572c-.7714286.6857143-1.8857143.6857143-2.6571429 0z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p><em>A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is expected to take effect on Jan. 19, 2025, according to United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Even as Israel\u2019s cabinet delayed until Jan. 17 its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/world\/live-news\/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-hostages-01-16-24\/index.html\">vote to ratify<\/a> the complex deal, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/live\/2025\/jan\/16\/israel-gaza-war-live-blog-updates-strikes-hamas-ceasefire-talks?page=with:block-678948c98f08c9192147e0f8\">Blinken said<\/a> he is \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/israel-news\/2025-01-16\/ty-article-live\/netanyahus-office-hamas-trying-to-renege-on-understandings-reached-in-doha-talks\/00000194-6d27-d545-a39e-ed6ff0840000?liveBlogItemId=236276521#236276521\">very confident this is moving forward<\/a>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The U.S., Qatar and Egypt <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/15\/world\/middleeast\/gaza-ceasefire-israel-hamas.html\">helped broker the deal<\/a>, which followed negotiations that had many starts and stops in 2024. Representatives of the Biden administration and President-elect Donald Trump worked together to advance the agreement, <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/gaza-ceasefire-trump-biden-israel-hamas-0e6c324ba0e3e9413bafe740fdefebc6\">and both leaders took credit<\/a> for the expected return of an estimated 100 Israeli hostages \u2014 both living and dead \u2014 and a complete ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Conversation, spoke with <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/spatial\/profile\/gregory-f-treverton\/\">Gregory F. Treverton<\/a>, who served as the chairperson of the U.S. National Intelligence Council during the Obama administration, to better understand what the U.S.\u2019s role in this agreement says about American influence in the Middle East.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>What is unusual, if anything, about the role of the U.S. in this deal?<\/h2>\n<p>So far, the U.S. has not had very much influence in attempts to end the conflict. One reason is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears allergic to taking advice from the U.S. What is striking now is that some combination of Donald Trump coming to power and Joe Biden leaving office has made a difference <em>\u2014<\/em> and possibly made Netanyahu more <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2025\/01\/16\/world\/middleeast\/netanyahu-israel-cease-fire.html\">willing to take political risks<\/a> with his governing coalition and to sign on to the deal.<\/p>\n<p>It is more or less the same kind of deal that the U.S. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/biden-announces-israel-hamas-ceasefire-deal-2025-01-15\/\">presented in May 2024<\/a>. So, it is hard to know whether Trump moved the dial by his past threats to punish Hamas and by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/israel-news\/2025-01-16\/ty-article\/.premium\/how-trump-scared-netanyahu-into-accepting-a-cease-fire-deal-with-hamas\/00000194-6bd9-d876-affe-7ffb0c1d0000\">pressuring Netanyahu<\/a>, or whether Hamas felt like it has been weakened and lacks <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2025\/jan\/16\/islamist-groups-middle-east-gaza-war-weakened-ceasefire-hamas-hezbollah\">outside support from weakened allies<\/a> like Iran. Or a combination of these factors.<\/p>\n<p>We also know that there are some <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/live\/2025\/01\/16\/world\/israel-hamas-gaza-cease-fire\">last-minute hiccups with the deal<\/a>, so it isn\u2019t over yet. But there is real progress and hope, and that reflects a lot of the Biden administration\u2019s hard work over the past 15 months.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2025\/01\/15\/us\/whats-in-the-hamas-israel-ceasefire-and-hostage-release-deal\/index.html\">proposed deal has three phases<\/a> that will last more than four months. Because it starts doesn\u2019t mean it will get to the end. And the agreed end is very, very vague, with a revamped Palestinian Authority taking over Gaza <em>\u2014<\/em> something Netanyahu has said he doesn\u2019t want.<\/p>\n<p>The deal has been brokered largely by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar. There is not a serious international monitor of the deal beyond the political pressure of these countries.<\/p>\n<h2>What do you make of Trump\u2019s and Biden\u2019s teams working together on this?<\/h2>\n<p>It is not unprecedented. Typically, during ordinary transitions between administrations, there is a lot of cooperation and working together.<\/p>\n<p>What is unusual is that you would perhaps not have expected this kind of collaboration, given the hostility between Trump and Biden and their teams. Biden has said that his administration and the Trump team have been \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/czx8dwxj07wo\">speaking as one team<\/a>.\u201d In that sense, it is a bright spot in U.S. politics as of late and returns to a more normal pattern in U.S. foreign policy where there has been cooperation between outgoing and incoming administrations.<\/p>\n<p>It is unusual that Steve Witkoff, Trump\u2019s designated Middle East special envoy, went on his own to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.haaretz.com\/israel-news\/2025-01-13\/ty-article\/.premium\/trumps-mideast-envoy-forced-netanyahu-to-accept-a-gaza-plan-he-repeatedly-rejected\/00000194-615c-d4d0-a1f4-fbfdce850000\">meet with Netanyahu in January<\/a> and reportedly influenced Netanyahu\u2019s decision to accept a deal that he previously rejected. Many special envoys <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2024\/12\/23\/donald-trump-ambassadors-envoys-battles-00195928\">require confirmation by the Senate<\/a>, though they can hold the post temporarily without it. They also need security clearances, so that limits some of the things they can do.<\/p>\n<h2>What else is notable about the U.S. role in the deal?<\/h2>\n<p>It is striking that for all his efforts, Biden seemed to have so little influence on Netanyahu. This has been very difficult for Biden politically. He wanted to get a ceasefire deal done, but he also wanted to stop the suffering in Gaza and didn\u2019t want to look like he was giving Israel a blank check to do whatever it wanted.<\/p>\n<p>In the process, the U.S. has been labeled as partially responsible for the tens of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/how-many-palestinians-has-israels-gaza-offensive-killed-2025-01-15\/\">thousands of Palestinian deaths<\/a>, which some people would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-67922346\">call a genocide<\/a>. This has done a lot of damage to the United States\u2019 global reputation, and that will take some time to repair.<\/p>\n<p>Trump is entirely unpredictable. He may continue to pressure Netanyahu or he may decide that Netanyahu can do whatever he wants.<\/p>\n<h2>What does this deal tell us about the standing of the U.S. in the Middle East?<\/h2>\n<p>In some ways, I think it shows the United States\u2019 diminished influence on the Middle East. On the other hand, the geopolitics of other regional conflicts and political changes, like the fall of the Assad government in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah and Iran over the past year or so, have given certain opportunities to Israel, and therefore the U.S. This includes continuing the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/the-abraham-accords\/\">Abraham Accords<\/a>, an agreement the Trump administration helped negotiate in 2020 to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.<\/p>\n<p>The Saudis have been clear that they won\u2019t make an agreement with Israel if there is not a state or something else designated for the Palestinians. It may turn out that this current deal, if implemented, offers enough for the Palestinians for the Saudis to also make an agreement with Israel.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/247638\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/gregory-f-treverton-392037\">Gregory F. Treverton<\/a>, Professor Emeritus of the Practice of <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/poir\/\">International Relations<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/usc-dornsife-college-of-letters-arts-and-sciences-2669\">USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/israel-hamas-deal-shows-limits-of-us-influence-and-the-unpredictable-impact-of-trump-247638\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n        \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          RELATED ARTICLES\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/is-ai-really-writing-ancient-authors-would-have-said-no\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Is AI really \u2018writing\u2019? 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It is expected to take effect one day before Biden leaves office.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":22860,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,50],"tags":[87,649,119,83],"class_list":["post-22855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-faculty","category-politics","tag-expert-viewpoint","tag-middle-east","tag-political-science-and-international-relations","tag-the-conversation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Israel-Hamas deal shows limits of US influence \u2013 and the unpredictable impact of\u00a0Trump<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are taking credit for the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel, slated to begin one day 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