{"id":19242,"date":"2024-04-17T11:33:54","date_gmt":"2024-04-17T18:33:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/?p=19242"},"modified":"2024-07-19T22:04:11","modified_gmt":"2024-07-20T05:04:11","slug":"earthquake-hazard-model-update-scec","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/earthquake-hazard-model-update-scec\/","title":{"rendered":"How threatened by earthquakes are US communities? New report gives answers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_Top-768x432.png\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_Top-1920x1080.png 1920w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_Top-1280x720.png 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_Top-768x432.png 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"An map of the United States with a heat map overlay.\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  USGS map shows earthquake hazard levels throughout the United States. (Image source: USGS\/public domain.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=science-and-technology\">Science and Technology<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>How threatened by earthquakes are US communities? New report gives answers<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Researchers at USC Dornsife\u2019s Statewide California Earthquake Center contributed models that forecast earthquake ruptures for the U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s National Seismic Hazard Model.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Katharine Gammon<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">April 17, 2024<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n   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class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>When it comes to earthquakes in the United States, California springs to mind as the nation\u2019s hotspot. But the rest of the country is far from immune, as residents in the New York City region were <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2024\/apr\/05\/earthquake-new-york-new-jersey\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reminded on April 5<\/a> by a magnitude 4.8 temblor centered nearby in New Jersey.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19244\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19244\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-19244\" src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryA-500x281.jpg\" alt=\"A news graphic showing earthquake centered at Whitehouse Station, NJ.\" width=\"300\" height=\"168\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryA-500x281.jpg 500w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryA-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryA.jpg 980w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19244\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A 4.8 magnitude earthquake struck New Jersey on April 5. (Image source: CNY Central.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Even citizens of the nation\u2019s interior face a threat. Over several months in the early 1800s, for example, numerous earthquakes \u2014 some reaching magnitude 7.5 or higher \u2014 devastated a massive area radiating from the Mississippi River town of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.usgs.gov\/programs\/earthquake-hazards\/new-madrid-seismic-zone\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">New Madrid<\/a>, Missouri.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this year, the U.S. Geological Survey updated a national resource that engineers, policymakers, government agencies and others use to assess risk of damage from earthquakes throughout the country. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.scec.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Statewide California Earthquake Center<\/a> (formerly Southern California Earthquake Center) based at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, contributed crucial results to the update.<\/p>\n<p><strong>USC alumnus helps shape new earthquake report<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The revised National Seismic Hazard Model, which includes a <a href=\"https:\/\/journals.sagepub.com\/doi\/10.1177\/87552930231215428\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">comprehensive approach for all 50 states<\/a>, uses much of the methodology developed from California\u2019s model to offer insights into the seismological underpinnings of the entire Western United States.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19245\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19245\" style=\"width: 250px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-19245\" src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryB-426x550.jpg\" alt=\"An illustration of damaged houses\" width=\"250\" height=\"322\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryB-426x550.jpg 426w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryB-794x1024.jpg 794w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryB-768x991.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryB.jpg 980w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 250px) 100vw, 250px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19245\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An 1854 woodcut by Henry Howe depicts an earthquake that struck New Madrid, Missouri, in the early 1800s. (Public domain.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>USC alumnus Kevin Milner helped build the new model and co-authored the USGS report, and he wrote a companion paper that offers technical details. He completed the work that went into the report while at USC.<\/p>\n<p>Milner, who recently joined USGS, spent more than 17 years working at SCEC headquarters at USC Dornsife, starting as an undergraduate intern while earning a bachelor\u2019s degree from <a href=\"https:\/\/viterbischool.usc.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USC Viterbi School of Engineering<\/a>. He then landed a staff position at SCEC and earned a master\u2019s degree and a PhD from USC Dornsife while working full time.<\/p>\n<p>He notes that previous versions of the report separately covered the contiguous U.S., Alaska and Hawaii. \u201cThis is the first time that a comprehensive update has been done for all 50 states at the same time,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p>In the new report, researchers applied their methodology developed for California to more areas around the West. In California, the risk went up slightly, but the model didn\u2019t change very much \u2014 and that\u2019s mostly because the science in the state was already so advanced to start with, says <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/profile\/yehuda-ben-zion\/\">Yehuda Ben-Zion<\/a>, director of SCEC. The model was already being used a decade ago for California.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt has morphed; it has changed a little bit for California by improving some components, but that\u2019s not dramatic,\u201d says Ben-Zion, professor of Earth sciences at USC Dornsife. \u201cThe reason is because we know more here.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>USC\u2019s advanced computer resources aid modeling <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There are two main components of the model: The kind of earthquake shaking that might happen at a particular location, known as the \u201cground motion model\u201d; and the probability of earthquakes happening at different locations, called the \u201cearthquake rupture forecast.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Milner works on developing the earthquake rupture forecasts. He says the model represents the work of about 50 scientists, including geologists in the field who are mapping faults and finding the rate at which they move each year, scientists who dig trenches to look for evidence of ancient earthquakes, and those who look at the rate of seismic activity across the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>Creating the earthquake rupture forecast requires immense <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/high-tech-earthquake-research\/\">computation<\/a>, which USC\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carc.usc.edu\/\">Center for Advanced Research Computing<\/a> handled. To generate the final model, 38 nodes (individual computers with 20 processors each that work together to tackle large calculations) took more than two days, but Milner says he was \u201cspitting out models continuously over the course of more than a year \u2014 models and diagnostic hazard calculations using really big amounts of computation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The information from the update will eventually be incorporated into building codes and structural designs to help create safer dwellings for people. It\u2019s also used by insurance companies to figure out rates for different areas that may be at risk of earthquakes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>What\u2019s shaking for the future?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Last year, the Southern California Earthquake Center became the Statewide California Earthquake Center to reflect a major new proposal that was funded to expand the work that SCEC was doing \u2014 which now spans the region from western Nevada to south of the Mexico border. Earthquake faults don\u2019t respect boundaries, so the center also adjusted to reflect the work it was doing, Ben-Zion says.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19246\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19246\" style=\"width: 300px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-19246\" src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryD-500x477.jpg\" alt=\"An aerial view of a vast desert landscape showing barren terrain with patterns of dry washes and sparse vegetation. The terrain is uneven with areas of slight elevation changes giving it a wrinkled texture.\" width=\"300\" height=\"286\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryD-500x477.jpg 500w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryD-768x732.jpg 768w, https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/SCEC_InStoryD.jpg 980w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19246\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Southern California\u2019s section of the San Andreas Fault is overdue for a major rupture. (Photo: John Wiley\/Wikimedia Commons.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Now that the report is out, there are already new avenues of research. Milner is interested in earthquakes that begin in one fault and then jump to another \u2014 the type that <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/earthquake-turkey-syria-february-2023-62dba95d0608a3a587ddd2fe5ec39541\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wreaked havoc<\/a> on Turkey and Syria last year. He\u2019s also interested in building in a time-dependent model of earthquakes, one that takes into consideration the amount of time that has elapsed since the last major event.<\/p>\n<p>In Southern California, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.earthquakeauthority.com\/blog\/2020\/san-andreas-fault-line-map\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">San Andreas Fault<\/a> \u2014 which forms the boundary between the large Pacific and North American plates \u2014 has gone without a major earthquake since 1857. Researchers believe that the average time between major events is shorter than the 167 years that have so far elapsed, suggesting the fault is overdue for a large rupture.<\/p>\n<p>Milner says building time dependence more deeply into future models will help estimate risk more accurately.<\/p>\n<p>Researchers can forecast earthquakes with limited success, says Ben-Zion, but he adds that the precision is improving with machine learning and more data. He equates the situation to a doctor trying to forecast when a person will die. The statistical life expectancy may be known within a range of years to weeks, and with more precise tests the range can be narrowed, but the exact time of death remains unpredictable.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe cannot predict exactly when big earthquakes will come, but they are going to happen,\u201d says Ben-Zion. \u201cWe need to invest in making the communities \u2014 the buildings, infrastructure and population \u2014 more resilient.\u201d<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><em>Darrin S. Joy also contributed to this article.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Earthquake researchers at USC Dornsife\u2019s Statewide California Earthquake Center made major contributions to the U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s latest National Seismic Hazard Model.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":19243,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"tags":[159,207,1911,1943,1942],"class_list":["post-19242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science-and-technology","tag-earth-sciences","tag-earthquakes","tag-erth","tag-scec","tag-statewide-california-earthquake-center"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How threatened by earthquakes are US communities? 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