{"id":19219,"date":"2024-04-12T14:14:36","date_gmt":"2024-04-12T21:14:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/?p=19219"},"modified":"2024-06-10T15:44:39","modified_gmt":"2024-06-10T22:44:39","slug":"does-nato-have-a-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/does-nato-have-a-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Does NATO have a future?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                          \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/DD_Nato_Recap_Top-768x432.png\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/DD_Nato_Recap_Top-1920x1080.png 1920w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/DD_Nato_Recap_Top-1280x720.png 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2024\/04\/DD_Nato_Recap_Top-768x432.png 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"The left side shows a black and white historical photograph of a NATO meeting. Several rows of men in suits and military uniforms are seated around a circular table with the NATO emblem at the center. The right side of the image features a modern, abstract digital design in shades of red and black, with geometric shapes, arrows and gears.\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  NATO has long outlasted its original foe, the Soviet Union, and it\u2019s facing increasing criticism from the public and politicians. Will it make it to 100? (Composite: Letty Avila. Image source: NATO; iStock.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=politics\">Politics<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>Does NATO have a future?<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  On the 75th anniversary of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, scholars examine the treaty\u2019s history and whether it should be strengthened, transformed or even retired.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Margaret Crable<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">April 12, 2024<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 2.518315-1.68841575 4.0350275 0 1.5167124.60096154 2.9475732 1.68841575 4.0350274 1.058837 1.0874543 2.51831502 1.6884158 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xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m8.14285714 9.42857143c-.17142857 0-.34285714 0-.51428571.08571428l7.28571427 6.34285719c.3428572.2571428.6857143.2571428.9428572 0l7.2857142-6.34285719c-.0857142-.08571428-.2571428-.08571428-.4285714-.08571428zm-1.28571428 1.11428567v.1714286 8.5714286c0 .6857143.6 1.2857143 1.28571428 1.2857143h14.57142856c.6857143 0 1.2857143-.6 1.2857143-1.2857143v-8.5714286c0-.0857143 0-.0857143 0-.1714286l-7.2 6.3428572c-.7714286.6857143-1.8857143.6857143-2.6571429 0z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, an alliance of Western nations formed largely as an attempt to stymie the expansion of the Soviet Union into Europe, marked its 75th anniversary on April 4.<\/p>\n<p>The Soviet Union and its Communist Party have since collapsed in Russia, but NATO remains, with an additional 20 members now onboard the organization. Sweden is its most recent member, having officially joined March 7.<\/p>\n<p>The usefulness and effectiveness of NATO in the post-Cold War era has been cause for strenuous debate. Scholars from the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences recently came together for a <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/dornsife-alumni\/dornsife-dialogues\/\">Dornsife Dialogue<\/a> to discuss NATO\u2019s 75 years of history and whether the treaty has an equally long future.<\/p>\n<p>Former chair of the U.S. National Intelligence Council <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/profile\/gregory-treverton\/\">Gregory Treverton<\/a>, now professor of the practice of <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/poir\/international-relations-b-a\/\">international relations and spatial sciences<\/a> at USC Dornsife, moderated the discussion.<\/p>\n<div class=\"video-embed\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"NATO at 75: Future of the Alliance\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/EJ9gq_4XRSs?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/div>\n<h2>What challenges has the war in Ukraine brought to NATO?<\/h2>\n<p>Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 thrust NATO back into the limelight and sparked renewed enthusiasm for the treaty. NATO membership went up as a result of the war, but <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/profile\/robert-english\/\">Robert English<\/a>, associate professor of international relations, <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/sll\/\">Slavic languages and literature<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/environmental-studies\/\">environmental studies<\/a>, says the organization also faces serious challenges.<\/p>\n<p>Public support for the war has declined among the European public, who increasingly express a desire for a negotiated peace with Russia rather than prolonged resistance. The war has taken a considerable toll on European economies and driven up the cost of living.<\/p>\n<p>In contrast, many of Europe\u2019s current leaders maintain staunch support for NATO and its offensive stance against Russia. Upcoming elections could mean new leaders with different ideas, challenging NATO\u2019s cohesion and its ability to maintain a consensus on policy towards Ukraine. \u201cEuropean leaders can ignore this turn in public opinion, but eventually elections force them to reckon with it,\u201d says English.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s also evidence of failed promises and disunity among key members of the alliance. The European Union provided <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/ukraine-has-received-300000-eus-promised-million-shells-foreign-minister-2023-11-29\/\">only a fraction<\/a> of the million artillery and shells it promised to Ukraine in 2023. When French president Emmanuel Macron recently suggested NATO might provide troops to Ukraine, he was met with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/macrons-ukraine-troop-talk-shakes-up-nato-allies-2024-02-27\/\">immediate disagreement from fellow NATO members<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHe exposed disunity and highlighted that not only can NATO not agree on any bold escalatory policy, it can\u2019t even fulfill its previous commitments,\u201d says English.<\/p>\n<h2>Is the expansion of NATO to blame for the Russia-Ukraine war?<\/h2>\n<p>John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago<strong>, <\/strong>who earned a master\u2019s degree in international relations from USC Dornsife in 1974, has famously argued that Vladimir Putin\u2019s decision to invade Ukraine was largely due to the eastward expansion of NATO. This enabled NATO to install military sites on Russia\u2019s doorstep.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/profile\/peter-westwick\/\">Peter Westwick<\/a>, professor of <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/thematic-option\/\">thematic option<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/hist\/\">history<\/a>, notes that this thinking goes all the way back to 1990, due in part to a verbal promise then U.S. Secretary of State James Baker made to then Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. If Gorbachev agreed to the reunification of East and West Germany, Baker assured him \u201cthere would be no extension of NATO\u2019s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/nsarchive.gwu.edu\/document\/16116-document-05-memorandum-conversation-between\">according to a later memo<\/a>. However, the meeting wasn\u2019t recorded so the exact quote isn\u2019t preserved.<\/p>\n<p>There has been much debate since as to whether this oral statement was a binding promise. Regardless, says English, anger among Russians about NATO\u2019s steady expansion eastward has been of real concern since long before the war broke out.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cLots of Russians, including liberal, pro-Western elites, were furious at NATO expansion. It wasn\u2019t because we had broken our word or violated a contract; it was because it humiliated them. It made them feel like we were taking advantage of their weakness,\u201d says English.<\/p>\n<p>This ire may have helped Putin\u2019s rise to power over the years, as he capitalized on a desire for a strong Russia.<\/p>\n<div id=\"buzzsprout-player-14815068\"><\/div>\n<p><script src=\"https:\/\/www.buzzsprout.com\/2126441\/14815068-nato-at-75-future-of-the-alliance.js?container_id=buzzsprout-player-14815068&#038;player=small\" type=\"text\/javascript\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Find a transcript of this audio <a href=\"https:\/\/www.buzzsprout.com\/2126441\/14815068-nato-at-75-future-of-the-alliance\">here<\/a> under the transcript tab.<\/p>\n<h2>Should NATO become more inclusive?<\/h2>\n<p>Some experts and politicians have suggested that Western allies such as Australia or Japan should join NATO and strengthen the alliance. English is skeptical this would bring many advantages.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe bigger NATO gets, the more economic and political differences it imports, making it more difficult to act with unity,\u201d says English. \u201cIt could actually weaken itself by becoming too diverse and too large.\u201d<\/p>\n<h2>What happens if the United States pulls out of NATO?<\/h2>\n<p>Former U.S. president and current Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has threatened to pull the United States out of NATO if fellow members don\u2019t increase their monetary contributions. This could spell trouble for NATO in a number of ways. The U.S. provides the most money to NATO as well as airlift capabilities, surveillance and reconnaissance technology that can\u2019t be easily replaced by European members.<\/p>\n<p>Leadership, both political and military, presents another problem. \u201cThe commanding general of NATO forces has always been an American. If you take that out, given the European unity question, how are they going to agree on the commanding leader of these military forces?\u201d says Westwick, who is also director of the <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/icw\/aerospace-history-project\/\">Aerospace History Project at the Huntington-USC Institute on California and the West<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>For the U.S., a withdrawal from NATO would mean a severe reduction in American influence in European affairs. For this reason, English says, it\u2019s unlikely Trump would actually withdraw should he be reelected.<\/p>\n<p>Some supporters of a U.S. withdrawal, or at least a step back from NATO leadership, say that this move might motivate European cohesion though. \u201cThey say it could finally force the Europeans to really get serious about self-reliance, to cooperate and coordinate much better than they do now,\u201d says English.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n        \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          Related Articles\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/galas-honoring-political-strategist-and-scholar-bob-shrum-raise-nearly-1m-in-support-of-civil-discourse\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Galas honoring political strategist and scholar Bob Shrum raise nearly $1M in support of civil discourse<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/us-and-iran-how-decades-of-mistrust-led-to-open-warfare\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >US and Iran: A brief history of how decades of mistrust and bad blood led to open\u00a0warfare<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/how-the-national-security-council-functions-when-presidents-consider-war\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >How the National Security Council typically functions to plan and fully assess risks when presidents consider going to\u00a0war<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n            <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Experts examine NATO\u2019s history and whether the alliance should be strengthened, transformed or even retired.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":19220,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,50],"tags":[71,285,119,84],"class_list":["post-19219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dornsife-global","category-politics","tag-history","tag-military","tag-political-science-and-international-relations","tag-russia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - 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