{"id":17633,"date":"2023-11-27T09:24:51","date_gmt":"2023-11-27T17:24:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/?p=17633"},"modified":"2023-11-27T13:48:03","modified_gmt":"2023-11-27T21:48:03","slug":"national-security-expert-isreal-hamas-ceasefire","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/national-security-expert-isreal-hamas-ceasefire\/","title":{"rendered":"A ceasefire is far from lasting peace \u2013 a national security expert on the Israel-Hamas deal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/11\/Treverton_CeaseFire_Top-768x432.png\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/11\/Treverton_CeaseFire_Top-1920x1080.png 1920w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/11\/Treverton_CeaseFire_Top-1280x720.png 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/11\/Treverton_CeaseFire_Top-768x432.png 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  role=\"none\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  People survey damage in the Gaza Strip in November 2023. (Image source: Flickr.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=politics\">Politics<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>A ceasefire is far from lasting peace \u2013 a national security expert on the Israel-Hamas deal<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  A cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas has seen the release of 58 hostages held in Gaza and 111 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Gregory F. Treverton<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">November 27, 2023<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 2.518315-1.68841575 4.0350275 0 1.5167124.60096154 2.9475732 1.68841575 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xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m8.14285714 9.42857143c-.17142857 0-.34285714 0-.51428571.08571428l7.28571427 6.34285719c.3428572.2571428.6857143.2571428.9428572 0l7.2857142-6.34285719c-.0857142-.08571428-.2571428-.08571428-.4285714-.08571428zm-1.28571428 1.11428567v.1714286 8.5714286c0 .6857143.6 1.2857143 1.28571428 1.2857143h14.57142856c.6857143 0 1.2857143-.6 1.2857143-1.2857143v-8.5714286c0-.0857143 0-.0857143 0-.1714286l-7.2 6.3428572c-.7714286.6857143-1.8857143.6857143-2.6571429 0z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p><em>For the first time since the <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/timeline-surprise-rocket-attack-hamas-israel\/story?id=103816006\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">deadly attacks by Hamas<\/a> on Israeli border towns on Oct. 7, 2023, that left at least 1,200 people dead, the Israeli government agreed on Nov. 22 to suspend its air and ground campaign in Gaza for four days in exchange for the release of at least 50 hostages held by Hamas. That suspension has held.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Nearly six weeks in the making, the <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/israel-hamas-war-ceasefire-what-to-know-af1cfbc9dcaa1485ed7a9efaca7ec2b7\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">cease-fire deal<\/a> also calls for the release of 150 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons. As of the morning of Nov. 27, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-67477240\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">58 hostages<\/a> held in Gaza have been released by Hamas, as well as 111 Palestinian prisoners released by Israel. Of the hostages, 40 were women and children. In a separate deal between Hamas and Egypt, 17 Thai hostages and one Filipino were also released. The fate of the remaining hostages is still unclear.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>To make sense of the deal, The Conversation asked <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/profile\/gregory-treverton\/\">Gregory F. Treverton of USC Dornsife<\/a>, a former chairman of the National Intelligence Council in the Obama administration, to share his thoughts on what it means for the ongoing war in Gaza.<\/em><\/p>\n<h2>Military goals unchanged<\/h2>\n<p>The agreement between Israel and Hamas \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/israel-hamas-11-1-2023-blinken-netanyahu-d57766fd8e55500ff6f16b78b3560d51\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">driven by U.S. pressure on Israel<\/a> \u2014 to exchange 50 hostages for 150 Palestinian prisoners and to pause fighting for four days is surely a welcome break in a horrific war.<\/p>\n<p>Not least, it will permit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2023\/nov\/22\/gaza-ceasefire-deal-brings-relief-but-little-hope-of-durable-peace\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">food and fuel<\/a> to enter a devastated Gaza.<\/p>\n<p>It does not, however, fundamentally change the awful geometry of the war: Netanyahu has pledged that Israel will <a href=\"https:\/\/thehill.com\/policy\/international\/4321886-netanyahu-israel-war-hostages-hamas\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">continue the fight<\/a>, and there seems little sign that Israel is any closer to a plan for what to do about Gaza or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/11\/01\/world\/middleeast\/israel-palestine-two-state-solution.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the Palestinians<\/a> than when the war began.<\/p>\n<p>For its part, events have played out much as Hamas might have planned.<\/p>\n<p>They knew their barbarism on Oct. 7 would call forth a brutal Israeli response.<\/p>\n<p>Hamas knew, cynically, that the more Palestinians who were killed, the better for its cause. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/6bf4f6ed-b705-4e66-ac6f-59b5ef6c0c77\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Global opinion<\/a> would shift against Israel, and its American patron, and it has. And Hamas likely expected the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.un.org\/unispal\/history\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Palestinian statehood issue<\/a>, all but forgotten by the world, including the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.spectator.co.uk\/article\/have-the-arab-nations-forgotten-about-palestine-in-their-acceptance-of-israel\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Arab world<\/a>, would return to international prominence.<\/p>\n<p>In the process, Hamas probably anticipated it would, paradoxically, become more popular in Gaza, not less.<\/p>\n<h2>A distant hope for lasting peace<\/h2>\n<p>In the short run, the best that can be hoped is that this exchange and pause will be extended or be the first of more to come.<\/p>\n<p>Certainly, Israel has been under global \u2014 and <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/wireStory\/israels-encirclement-gaza-city-tightens-top-us-diplomat-104597626\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">especially American<\/a> \u2014 pressure to agree to some pause, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/israels-parliament-approves-national-unity-government-2023-10-12\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Netanyahu \u201cunity\u201d government<\/a> has felt the heat, domestically, for seeming to disregard the hostages.<\/p>\n<p>In the longer run, after much more killing and suffering, the alternatives still remain dreary. Israel has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlanticcouncil.org\/blogs\/menasource\/gaza-israel-occupied-international-law\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">no stomach for occupying Gaza<\/a> and surely <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2023\/10\/24\/world\/europe\/israel-hamas-gaza-war.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">none for letting Hamas<\/a> again pretend to govern. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2023\/10\/11\/what-is-the-palestinian-authority-and-how-is-it-viewed-by-palestinians\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Palestinian Authority<\/a> remains corrupt, weak and inept in the eyes of those it governs, and as a result is a poor candidate to take on Gaza.<\/p>\n<p>The best hope is a distant one \u2014 that some coalition of mostly Arab states but also perhaps including the U.S. could govern Gaza, perhaps exercising some tutelage over a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/biden-says-palestinian-authority-should-ultimately-govern-gaza-west-bank-2023-11-18\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">reformed Palestinian Authority<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But that is a long way off, and the hostage exchange and pause does not take the region or the world much closer to a lasting peace.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/218324\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/gregory-f-treverton-392037\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Gregory F. Treverton<\/a>, Professor of Practice in International Relations, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/usc-dornsife-college-of-letters-arts-and-sciences-2669\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/a-ceasefire-is-far-from-lasting-peace-a-national-security-expert-on-the-israel-hamas-deal-218324\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n        \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          Related Articles\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/why-trump-is-really-targeting-greenland\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Why Trump is really targeting Greenland<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/calis-teaches-teens-to-understand-a-changing-world\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Teaching teens to understand a changing world<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/russia-ukraine-war-analysis-by-international-relations-experts\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >What will it take to end the Russia-Ukraine war? Two experts tell us<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n            <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas has seen the release of 58 hostages held in Gaza and 111 Palestinians held in Israeli jails.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":17634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[87,85,83],"class_list":["post-17633","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-expert-viewpoint","tag-international-relations","tag-the-conversation"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A ceasefire is far from lasting peace \u2013 a national security expert on the Israel-Hamas 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