{"id":16467,"date":"2023-08-24T10:14:13","date_gmt":"2023-08-24T17:14:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/?p=16467"},"modified":"2023-08-24T10:14:14","modified_gmt":"2023-08-24T17:14:14","slug":"prigozhin-yevgeny-putin-suspicious-demise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/prigozhin-yevgeny-putin-suspicious-demise\/","title":{"rendered":"Wagner group\u2019s Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly died in private jet crash \u2014 if confirmed, it wouldn\u2019t be first time someone who crossed Putin met a suspicious demise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/08\/prigozhin-yevgeny-putin-top-768x432.jpg\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/08\/prigozhin-yevgeny-putin-top-1920x1080.jpg 1920w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/08\/prigozhin-yevgeny-putin-top-1280x720.jpg 1280w,https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/08\/prigozhin-yevgeny-putin-top-768x432.jpg 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  role=\"none\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Yevgeny Prigozhin, right, with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in 2010. (Image source: Wikimedia Commons\/government.ru)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=politics\">Politics<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>Wagner group\u2019s Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly died in private jet crash \u2014 if confirmed, it wouldn\u2019t be first time someone who crossed Putin met a suspicious demise<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  The lesson in the presumed death of the mercenary leader two months after his mutiny against Putin: Don\u2019t make yourself an enemy of Russia\u2019s leader.\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Gregory F. Treverton<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">August 24, 2023<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 2.518315-1.68841575 4.0350275 0 1.5167124.60096154 2.9475732 1.68841575 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<p><em>Russian mercenary leader <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/russia-wagner-prigozhin-jet-crash-a7859e4e57f2efa2547dfbe5bdbaa1b2\" target=\"_blank\">Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner Group<\/a>, reportedly died when a private jet he was said to be on crashed on Aug. 23, 2023, killing all 10 people on board.<\/em> <\/p>\n<p><em>The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency confirmed that Prigozhin, who had led a brief rebellion again the Russian military two months earlier, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/08\/23\/europe\/russia-wagner-prigozhin-plane-crash-intl\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">was among the dead<\/a>. However, Prigozhin was believed to have numerous passports, and he would <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/lifestyle\/pentagon-suspects-head-wagner-group-110104468.html\" target=\"_blank\">compel others to travel under his name<\/a> to protect him from possible attacks.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>The Conversation U.S. asked national security scholar <a href=\"https:\/\/spatial.usc.edu\/team-view\/gregory-f-treverton\/\">Gregory F. Treverton<\/a>, a former chairman of the National Intelligence Council in the Obama administration, to explain what Prigozhin\u2019s death would signify.<\/em>  <\/p>\n<h2>Who was \u2013 or is \u2013 Prigozhin?<\/h2>\n<p>Prigozhin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/08\/23\/europe\/wagner-chief-yevgeny-prigozhin-russia-intl\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">came from humble beginnings<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>He was a petty criminal who, after serving nine years in a Soviet prison, became a hot dog vendor and eventually owned elegant restaurants and a catering service. He was best known as the rich and connected leader of the Wagner group, a <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/russias-reliance-on-mercenaries-in-ukraine-points-to-the-weakness-of-its-military-and-putins-strategy-of-deflecting-blame-190612\" target=\"_blank\">private military force with links to the Russian government<\/a>. Wagner troops fought on the Russian side in Ukraine, but Prigozhin went public in the spring of 2023 with <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/ukraine-war-russia-nuclear-647a545db4e4628676ff7db5b1bded34\" target=\"_blank\">criticism of the conflict\u2019s cost<\/a> in terms of Wagner troops and complaints about the way the war was being fought by the Russian government. Defense Minister <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-65996531\" target=\"_blank\">Sergey Shoigu<\/a> was a particular target of Prigozhin\u2019s complaints regarding military strategy.<\/p>\n<p>In June, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/06\/23\/europe\/wagner-prigozhin-criminal-case-explainer-intl\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Prigozhin orchestrated what was effectively a revolt<\/a> against Russia\u2019s government. He dispatched Wagner troops on a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/world\/russia-launches-criminal-probe-over-wagner-group-leaders-threats-against-defense-minister\" target=\"_blank\">march unimpeded toward Moscow<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Prigozhin was 62 years old at the time of the crash.<\/p>\n<h2>What was his relationship with President Vladimir Putin?<\/h2>\n<p>It was complicated, to say the least. <\/p>\n<p>An oligarch, Prigozhin was thought to be close to the Russian leader. He was called \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2023\/03\/06\/1160851615\/russia-putin-chef-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group\" target=\"_blank\">Putin\u2019s chef<\/a>\u201d due to the services he provided the Kremlin and the personal touches he employed when <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/the-rise-of-yevgeny-prigozhin-how-a-one-time-food-caterer-became-vladimir-putins-biggest-threat-208450\" target=\"_blank\">Putin dined in his restaurants<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>In June, when he launched his mutiny against Moscow, Prigozhin must have realized he had gone too far with his public rebukes. The only general he admired, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/06\/30\/europe\/russian-general-sergey-surovikin-wagner-vip-intl-hnk\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">Sergey Surovikin<\/a>, released a video message telling him to stand down and to \u201cobey\u201d Putin. Prigozhin soon disbanded the march, saying he wanted to spare \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbsnews.com\/news\/wagner-chief-prigozhin-russia-truce-brokered-by-belarus\/\" target=\"_blank\">Russian blood<\/a>.\u201d Afterward, the mercenary leader said he met with Putin before leaving for what was expected to be his exile in Belarus.  <\/p>\n<p>At the time, I was looking for cracks in Russia\u2019s will to fight, particularly in its military. At some level, it has to hate hemorrhaging men and materiel in a conflict that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2023\/07\/06\/europe\/captured-russian-soldiers-ukraine-intl-cmd\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">many conscripts don\u2019t even understand<\/a> or support.<\/p>\n<p>In that sense, I saw Prigozhin\u2019s criticisms of Russia\u2019s military strategy in Ukraine as a positive sign, especially as his take seemed to resonate with the Russian people and even its armed forces. Yet when it looked like Prigozhin might prevail, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2023\/06\/30\/vladimir-putin-ousted-wagner-group-00104272\" target=\"_blank\">American officials were worried<\/a>. As the saying goes: When the gods wish to punish us, they grant us our wishes. Would putting an end to Putin\u2019s rule lead to chaos in Russia, and how dangerous would that be with <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/prigozhin-revolt-raised-fears-of-putins-toppling-and-a-nuclear-russia-in-chaos-208731\" target=\"_blank\">all of those nuclear weapons<\/a> it harbors? <\/p>\n<h2>Why do you think Putin\u2019s opponents, many of whom are dead or imprisoned, have met so much misfortune?<\/h2>\n<p>It was painfully plain that after his failed rebellion, Prigozhin was a dead man flying.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, the surprise was that Putin dropped charges and let him go, albeit to Russia\u2019s vassal ally, Belarus. But many believe, including me, that Prigozhin was destined to eventually meet the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.euronews.com\/2022\/09\/22\/accidental-defenestration-and-murder-suicides-too-common-among-russian-oligarchs-and-putin\" target=\"_blank\">fate of others who have crossed Putin<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>That growing list includes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/jun\/29\/gunman-found-guilty-murdering-russian-opposition-leader-boris-nemtsov\" target=\"_blank\">Boris Nemtsov<\/a>, the Russian physicist, politician and critic of Putin who was assassinated in 2015, and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/alexei-navalny-leads-russians-in-a-historic-battle-against-arbitrary-rule-with-words-echoing-catherine-the-great-154717\" target=\"_blank\">Alexei Navalny<\/a>, the Russian opposition leader who remains in prison after Putin allegedly orchestrated his poisoning in 2020. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">CIA Director William Burns last month:<\/p>\n<p>&quot;Putin is someone who generally thinks that revenge is a dish best served cold&#8230;in my experience, Putin is the ultimate apostle of payback. So I would be surprised if Prigozhin escapes further retribution for this.&quot; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/73tND3dkow\">https:\/\/t.co\/73tND3dkow<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/64oaE7bdRl\">pic.twitter.com\/64oaE7bdRl<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Ethan Grey (@_EthanGrey) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_EthanGrey\/status\/1694400159579525245?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" target=\"_blank\">August 23, 2023<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Would Prigozhin\u2019s death change anything for US policy toward Putin and Russia?<\/h2>\n<p>In the end, unless Prigozhin\u2019s rebellion does turn out to have planted the seeds of real resistance, I don\u2019t believe his death is likely to change the course of the Ukraine war or U.S. policy toward Putin and Russia.<\/p>\n<p>However, it\u2019s likely to take Wagner troops, which had been <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/International\/wagner-groups-armed-rebellion-russias-endgame-ukraine\/story?id=100169872\" target=\"_blank\">among Russia\u2019s most effective<\/a>, out of the conflict in Ukraine. And it may wind up diminishing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2023\/08\/22\/prigozhin-africa-wagner-russia\/\" target=\"_blank\">Wagner\u2019s operations in Africa<\/a>, which until now have furthered Russian interests. Yet the Ukraine war has become America\u2019s war, and the U.S. government doesn\u2019t want to see Ukraine lose it \u2013 even if it doesn\u2019t win dramatically. <\/p>\n<p>The United States will still have to deal with Putin as it continues to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/briefing-room\/statements-releases\/2022\/03\/03\/fact-sheet-the-united-states-continues-to-target-russian-oligarchs-enabling-putins-war-of-choice\" target=\"_blank\">sanction him and his associates<\/a>, and ultimately seeks to see him tried as a war criminal.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/212168\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/gregory-f-treverton-392037\" target=\"_blank\">Gregory F. Treverton<\/a>, Professor of Practice in International Relations, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/usc-dornsife-college-of-letters-arts-and-sciences-2669\" target=\"_blank\">USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/wagner-groups-yevgeny-prigozhin-reportedly-died-in-private-jet-crash-if-confirmed-it-wouldnt-be-first-time-someone-who-crossed-putin-met-a-suspicious-demise-212168\" target=\"_blank\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n        \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          Related News:\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/russia-ukraine-war-analysis-by-international-relations-experts\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >What will it take to end the Russia-Ukraine war? Two experts tell us<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/does-nato-have-a-future\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Does NATO have a future?<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/prigozhin-revolt-raised-fears-of-putins-toppling\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Prigozhin revolt raised fears of Putin\u2019s toppling \u2013 and a nuclear Russia in\u00a0chaos<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n            <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The lesson in the presumed death of the mercenary leader two months after his mutiny against Putin: Don\u2019t make yourself an enemy of Russia\u2019s leader.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":16468,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[50],"tags":[87,85,84,131,83,82],"class_list":["post-16467","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-expert-viewpoint","tag-international-relations","tag-russia","tag-spatial-sciences","tag-the-conversation","tag-ukraine"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Wagner group\u2019s Yevgeny Prigozhin reportedly died in private jet crash \u2014 if confirmed, it wouldn\u2019t be first time someone who crossed Putin met a suspicious demise<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" 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