{"id":1256,"date":"2021-11-23T09:14:00","date_gmt":"2021-11-23T17:14:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/a-new-ratings-industry-is-emerging-to-help-homebuyers-assess-climate-risks\/"},"modified":"2026-03-27T21:04:30","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T04:04:30","slug":"ratings-industry-to-assess-climate-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/ratings-industry-to-assess-climate-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"A new ratings industry is emerging to help homebuyers assess climate\u00a0risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n    \n                                          \n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-3582-768x432.jpg\"\n          data-srcset=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/7\/2023\/04\/story-3582-768x432.jpg 768w\"          data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"A new ratings industry is emerging to help homebuyers assess climate\u00a0risks\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  A helicopter drops water on a bushfire threatening homes. (Image Source: iStock.)\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n          <nav aria-label=\"Breadcrumb\" class=\"breadcrumbs\">\n        <ul>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\">News<\/a><\/li>\n                      <li><a href=\"\/news\/stories\/\/?category=student\">Student<\/a><\/li>\n                  <\/ul>\n      <\/nav>\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>A new ratings industry is emerging to help homebuyers assess climate\u00a0risks<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n          <div class=\"subtitle\">\n            \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  Using big data a new industry is assessing the risks of flooding and wildfire to an area due to climate change and government standards should be put in place to ensure reliable and accurate information. <strong>[5\u00bc min read]<\/strong>\n\n\n<\/div>\n      <\/div>\n    \n           <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span><a href=\"mailto:communication@dornsife.usc.edu\">Matthew E. Kahn<\/a><\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">November 23, 2021<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 2.518315-1.68841575 4.0350275 0 1.5167124.60096154 2.9475732 1.68841575 4.0350274 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xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m8.14285714 9.42857143c-.17142857 0-.34285714 0-.51428571.08571428l7.28571427 6.34285719c.3428572.2571428.6857143.2571428.9428572 0l7.2857142-6.34285719c-.0857142-.08571428-.2571428-.08571428-.4285714-.08571428zm-1.28571428 1.11428567v.1714286 8.5714286c0 .6857143.6 1.2857143 1.28571428 1.2857143h14.57142856c.6857143 0 1.2857143-.6 1.2857143-1.2857143v-8.5714286c0-.0857143 0-.0857143 0-.1714286l-7.2 6.3428572c-.7714286.6857143-1.8857143.6857143-2.6571429 0z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>As climate change fuels <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/billions\/#:%7E:text=In%202021%20(as%20of%20October,and%201%20winter%20storm%20event.),%20the%20real%20estate%20mantra%20of%20%22location,%20location,%20location%22%20is%20taking%20on%20new%20meaning.%20In%202021,%20homeowners%20have%20contended%20with%20threats%20including%20%5Bparalyzing%20cold%20on%20the%20Great%20Plains%5D(https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-weather\/texas-deep-freeze-leaves-millions-without-power-21-dead-idUSKBN2AG257\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">large-scale natural disasters<\/a>, the real estate mantra of \u201clocation, location, location\u201d is taking on new meaning. In 2021, homeowners have contended with threats including <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-weather\/texas-deep-freeze-leaves-millions-without-power-21-dead-idUSKBN2AG257\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">paralyzing cold on the Great Plains<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/california\/story\/2021-08-30\/photos-evacuation-order-south-lake-tahoe-caldor-fire\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wildfire evacuations in the West<\/a> and flooding from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theadvocate.com\/baton_rouge\/news\/weather_traffic\/article_1f46ecc6-b800-11eb-827e-8b1465c85bce.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">South<\/a> to <a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/idas-remnants-deluge-york-jersey-flooding-rain-tornadoes\/story?id=79780365\" target=\" \">New York City and New England<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Buying a house is complicated enough in a market that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2021\/11\/12\/magazine\/real-estate-pandemic.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">has become supercharged<\/a> in many U.S. cities. Emerging climate change risks will further complicate those decisions. Investors will be less likely to regret their decisions if they do due diligence in researching local climate risks. Mortgage lenders will face less risk of borrowers defaulting, and <a href=\"https:\/\/hbr.org\/2017\/08\/how-the-insurance-industry-can-push-us-to-prepare-for-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">insurers will face fewer losses<\/a>, if they factor climate risks into decisions on loans and insurance policies.<\/p>\n<p>I study <a href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=lfkXE9kAAAAJ&amp;hl=en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">environmental economics<\/a>, and in my recent book, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/yalebooks.yale.edu\/book\/9780300246711\/adapting-climate-change\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Adapting to Climate Change: Markets and the Management of an Uncertain Future<\/a>\u201d, I explore how the rise of Big Data will help people, firms and local governments make better decisions in the face of climate risks. I see the emergence of a climate risk analysis industry for real estate as a promising development, but believe the federal government should set standards to ensure that it provides reliable, accurate information.<\/p>\n<div class=\"video-embed\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/F_pKB_C1NdQ?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0\" width=\"440\" height=\"260\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p style=\"font-size: 11px; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Lucida Grande', 'Lucida Sans Unicode', Verdana, sans-serif; margin: 0.8em 0;\">\n<h2>Prices send climate signals, but not everyone listens<\/h2>\n<p>Home prices reflect implicit judgments about whether properties are good investments \u2013 including the house and the area around it. For example, the current <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zillow.com\/ca\/home-values\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">median home value in California<\/a> is nearly US$720,000 \u2013 more than twice the <a href=\"https:\/\/ycharts.com\/indicators\/us_existing_home_median_sales_price\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">national median<\/a>. This difference reflects a judgment that California offers a desirable climate, lifestyle and job opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>People who buy property in California are betting that the state will continue to be a great place to live in the future. If climate change devastates large portions of it, buyers could regret their investment.<\/p>\n<p>Recent research studying U.S real estate shows that <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jfineco.2019.03.013\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">flood risk<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.jeem.2018.07.005\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">fire risk<\/a> are reflected in current housing prices. Properties that are perceived to be riskier sell for a lower price \u2013 but it\u2019s not clear whether these climate price discounts fully compensate buyers for the risks they are exposed to.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p dir=\"ltr\" lang=\"en\">Climate change is eroding one of the most vibrant real estate markets in the country \u2014 and has quietly been doing so for nearly a decade, according to new research. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3pjI0lzDsr\">https:\/\/t.co\/3pjI0lzDsr<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Hannah Fairfield (@hfairfield) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hfairfield\/status\/1315659758540652544?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 12, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script charset=\"utf-8\" type=\"text\/javascript\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Concern about emerging climate risks varies, <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1080\/00139157.2016.1208995\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">due partly to the partisan divide<\/a>. It\u2019s fair to assume that some buyers will be eager to purchase homes in locations that others view as too risky. When people disagree about the probability of a bad outcome, the more optimistic bidder is <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.rie.2017.11.002\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more likely to purchase the asset<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Climate change is making extreme weather events, such as tropical storms and flooding, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/ar6\/wg1\/downloads\/report\/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">more frequent and intense<\/a> in many places. Will people\u2019s risk perceptions shift along with these changes? Studies show that many <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/rfs\/hhab122\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">people underestimate climate risks to housing<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As Nobel laureate economist <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/economic-sciences\/2001\/akerlof\/facts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">George Akerlof<\/a> has shown, asymmetric information in markets \u2013 when sellers know more about a product than buyers \u2013 can impede trade. Buyers rightly fear getting stuck with a \u201clemon,\u201d whether it\u2019s a used car or a house that floods with every big storm.<\/p>\n<p>In the auto market, rating systems like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.carfax.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Carfax<\/a> help level the playing field; in the real estate industry, climate concerns are creating an opportunity for a nascent industry of climate risk screening modelers offering similar service for homebuyers.<\/p>\n<div class=\"news-image-full\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/432918\/original\/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/images.theconversation.com\/files\/432918\/original\/file-20211119-16-8mdzjc.png\" alt=\"Map of weather and climate disasters in 2021.\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>During the first nine months of 2021, there were 18 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events across the U.S. that caused $104.8 billion in damages. (<a class=\"source\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/billions\/\">NOAA<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Like Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s but for climate risk<\/h2>\n<p>Just as Moody\u2019s and Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s rate private companies\u2019 creditworthiness to help inform investor decisions, a growing set of firms seek to assess spatially refined climate risks, ranging from flooding to extreme heat and wildfire risk. These companies include <a href=\"https:\/\/climatecheck.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Climate Check<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/firststreet.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">First Street Foundation<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/jupiterintel.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Jupiter Intelligence<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/esg.moodys.io\/climate-solutions\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Moody\u2019s ESG Solutions Group<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rms.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RMS<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Climate risk raters use recent natural disasters to compare the geography of recent flood events to what their model predicts. Typically, they combine peer-reviewed research in climatology and hydrology with a climate change model to generate risks maps. First Street Foundation has posted <a href=\"https:\/\/firststreet.org\/research-lab\/published-research\/flood-model-methodology_overview\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">a step-by-step overview<\/a> of its modeling approach.<\/p>\n<p>[<em>Like what you\u2019ve read? Want more?<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/memberservices.theconversation.com\/newsletters\/?source=inline-likethis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sign up for The Conversation\u2019s daily newsletter<\/a>.]<\/p>\n<p>Like any emerging industry, spatially refined climate prediction has grown unevenly. Some models are scientifically sound and highly precise, while others are lower quality. In a normal market, consumers would select the winning products through market competition \u2013 but for climate risk forecasts, it may take years to assess which offerings are most reliable.<\/p>\n<p>I believe the federal government should play a role in screening the new generation of climate risk products. Regulators could work with the National Science Foundation to create a jury of experts to evaluate the new products.<\/p>\n<p>One way to quality-check these offerings would be to foster a competition in which teams post forecasts about the likely locations of disasters in 2022, and then are ranked early in 2023 based on how well they predicted actual outcomes. This kind of annual review could nudge participants to upgrade their models regularly. One potential example is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kaggle.com\/c\/AlgorithmicTradingChallenge\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">algorithmic trading competitions in financial markets<\/a>, in which contestants develop new models to accurately predict how the stock market will respond to large trades.<\/p>\n<h2>Saving lives and protecting assets<\/h2>\n<p>Climate risk assessment firms could help make the U.S. real estate sector more resilient by helping homebuyers become more sophisticated and realistic property shoppers. Lending patterns will shift as banks offer borrowers less-generous terms for riskier properties. This incentive should nudge people to bid more for relatively safer properties and to seek to live in less risky areas.<\/p>\n<p>Such shifts in turn could nudge changes in local land use and zoning laws to <a href=\"https:\/\/urban-regeneration.worldbank.org\/node\/21\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">upzone<\/a> \u2013 allow higher-value or denser uses \u2013 in <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.curbed.com\/2020\/1\/30\/21115351\/upzoning-definition-affordable-housing-gentrification\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">relatively safer areas<\/a>. Building more homes in less risky areas would make climate adaptation more affordable.<\/p>\n<p>Climate change confronts people with fundamental uncertainty. I see developing the skills and infrastructure to better predict local climate risks as a useful strategy for adapting to climate risks. If forecasters can develop trusted predictive models, people will face less future regret about their real estate investments and less risk in their daily lives.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;\" src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/171898\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/matthew-e-kahn-300347\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Matthew E. Kahn<\/a>, Provost Professor of Economics and Spatial Sciences, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/usc-dornsife-college-of-letters-arts-and-sciences-2669\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/a-new-ratings-industry-is-emerging-to-help-homebuyers-assess-climate-risks-171898\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n        \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/how-climate-finance-to-help-poor-countries-became-a-global-shell-game-donors-have-counted-fossil-fuel-projects-airports-and-even-ice-cream-shops\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >How climate finance to help poor countries became a global shell game<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/two-iconic-coral-species-are-now-functionally-extinct-off-florida-study-finds\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >2 iconic coral species are now functionally extinct off Florida, study finds \u2013 we witnessed the reef\u2019s bleaching and\u00a0devastation<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/trumps-words-arent-stopping-many-countries-from-setting-higher-climate-goals\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Trump\u2019s words aren\u2019t stopping China, Brazil and many other countries from setting higher climate goals, but progress is\u00a0slow<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n            <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Using big data a new industry is assessing the risks of flooding and wildfire to an area due to climate change and government standards should be put in place to ensure reliable and accurate information. <strong>[5\u00bc min read]<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":52,"featured_media":1259,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[17,15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-student","category-sustainability"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A new ratings industry is emerging to help homebuyers assess climate\u00a0risks<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Using big data, a new industry is assessing the risks of flooding and wildfire to an area due to climate change.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/ratings-industry-to-assess-climate-risks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A new ratings industry is emerging to help homebuyers assess climate\u00a0risks\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Using big data, a new industry is assessing the risks of flooding and wildfire to an area due to climate change.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/news\/stories\/ratings-industry-to-assess-climate-risks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"USC Dornsife News\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" 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