Removal of President Trump if House votes to impeach is popular among eligible voters
One year ahead of the 2020 General Election, a majority of Americans are following the news about the impeachment investigation into President Donald Trump. A substantial minority (45%) support the Senate removing the president from office if the House votes to impeach him. A little more than a quarter think he should be acquitted. All of this according to the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll.
The poll asked about impeachment and removal differently from other surveys, by presenting voters with the choice to say they are undecided, or that it is too soon to say. More than 1 in 4 Americans say it is too soon to make the call about impeachment, and slightly more remain undecided about removal.
Overall, Americans are also skeptical that Trump will actually be impeached and removed from office, rating the chance of it happening at 30 out of 100. Furthermore, Americans rated Trump’s chances of winning a second term in 2020 at 53 out of 100.
These beliefs are counter to the poll’s finding that eligible voters who said they expect to cast a ballot in the 2020 election would vote for the eventual Democratic nominee over Trump by 54% to 33%. More than half of Americans said they would be completely or mostly unhappy if Trump were re-elected.
Among voters planning to cast ballots in a Democratic primary or caucus, former Vice President Joe Biden retains his lead in the slowly thinning Democratic field, with support for his candidacy largely rooted in the belief that he can beat Trump, said Robert Shrum, director of the Center for the Political Future at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. The Center oversees the poll.
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., has gained ground among white voters and among those who say they share her values.
Partisanship in the mix
Support for impeaching and removing President Trump from office divides sharply along partisan lines with more than four out of five Democrats for impeachment and more than two-thirds of Republicans against it. Independents and members of other parties support removal over acquittal by nearly two to one, but more than half of that group said it is too soon to tell.
“Polls that do not provide an undecided option, except perhaps a volunteered response, are reporting somewhat higher numbers for removal,” said Jill Darling, survey director for the poll, which is conducted by the USC Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research in their probability-based internet panel the Understanding America Study. “We think the level to which Americans have and have not made up their minds is an important part of the story.”
Majorities of the 2 out of 5 eligible voters who are not yet closely following the news about the impeachment inquiry, along with Independents and those affiliated with third parties, responded that it is “too soon to say” that Congress should impeach and/or remove the president from office.
“As the House undertakes public hearings on impeachment there’s a substantial minority of Americans who are uncertain and possibly persuadable, should they begin to follow along,” Darling added.
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About the poll
The USC Dornsife/LA Times poll is a partnership of the Los Angeles Times and two institutions at USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences: the Center for the Political Future and the Center for Economic and Social Research. For more information about the Center for Economic and Social Research Understanding America Study internet panel, visit uasdata.usc.edu.
Interview opportunities
The following experts at USC Dornsife who lead the poll are available for interviews upon request:
- Robert Shrum, director of the Center for the Political Future
- Mike Murphy, co-director of the Center for the Political Future
- Jill Darling, survey director of the Center for Economic and Social Research
To arrange an interview with experts about the poll, please contact James Key at 213-821-2992 or jameskey@dornsife.usc.edu.