{"id":20917,"date":"2026-04-17T11:41:59","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T18:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/eri\/?p=20917"},"modified":"2026-04-22T09:55:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-22T16:55:43","slug":"forward-in-a-world-on-fire-lithium-valley-new-crossroads","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/eri\/2026\/04\/17\/forward-in-a-world-on-fire-lithium-valley-new-crossroads\/","title":{"rendered":"Forward in a World on Fire: Lithium Valley at a New Crossroads"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            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class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>Forward in a World on Fire: Lithium Valley at a New Crossroads<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n    \n          <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span>Professors Chris Benner (UC Santa Cruz) and Manuel Pastor (USC)<\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">April 17, 2026<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg 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cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">When we published <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chargingforwardbook.org\/\"><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Charging Forward: Lithium Valley, Electric Vehicles, and a Just Future<\/span><\/i><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in October 2024, we argued that the clean-energy transition was inevitable\u2014but that whether it would be <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">inclusive<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> was very much in question.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While we knew that we were future-casting, we soon had some wind taken out of our predictive sails. The month after publication saw the election of Donald Trump. As 2025 dawned, the new administration began moving to dismantle federal clean-energy programs. Its \u201cOne Big Beautiful Bill Act,\u201d passed in July 2025, eliminated the tax credits that had propelled electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Suddenly, all that we thought was to pass was receding into the distance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span data-olk-copy-source=\"MessageBody\">And now, the trajectory has shifted again<\/span>, bringing the once-promised future back into view. In late February 2026, the United States went to war with Iran. Within days, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/03\/31\/gas-prices-us-iran-war\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">gas prices across the country surged past $4 a gallon<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, reaching <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/gasprices.aaa.com\/state-gas-price-averages\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">well over $5 a gallon in California, Hawaii, and Washington<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Iran&#8217;s closure of the Strait of Hormuz\u2014through which roughly 20 percent of the world&#8217;s oil flows\u2014sent global oil markets into their <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2026\/03\/16\/nx-s1-5749333\/iran-war-gasoline-prices-day-17\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">worst disruption in decades<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. Even if the conflict is resolved, analysts warn that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/09\/oil-gas-commodity-prices-iran-war\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">meaningful relief at the pump is still months away<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Across the world, consumers have been responding to high gasoline prices with their feet\u2014and their wallets. In the United Kingdom, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/article\/2026\/04\/08\/how-the-iran-war-is-pushing-more-people-to-buy-evs\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">EV sales hit a record high in March 2026, with 86,120 vehicles sold<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in a single month. South Korea saw EV registrations more than double year-over-year. In the U.S., <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecooldown.com\/green-business\/tesla-electric-vehicle-sales-gas-prices\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014up from 336,681 the year before\u2014a rebound that happened without the $7,500 federal tax credit the Trump administration eliminated. The used EV market set an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.evshift.com\/434676\/electric-vehicle-interest-and-sales-rise-with-gas-prices\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">all-time quarterly sales record<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, driven in part by the fact that the average used EV now costs the same as a comparable gas-powered car.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The market is sending a clear signal, one that federal policy over the past year has largely drowned out. With many now recognizing the volatility from our nation\u2019s over-reliance on fossil fuels (and the unpredictability of the administration\u2019s foreign policy), the questions at the heart of <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Charging Forward <\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">are once again salient: What is needed to accelerate the clean-energy transition? How do we balance the speed we need to save the planet with the pace needed to build trust in communities where minerals will be extracted? And why is the Imperial Valley, in one of the poorest counties in California, the place where it all comes together?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Stuck in the Past<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Trump Administration has prioritized &#8220;critical minerals&#8221; and energy security. The war in Iran would seem to be Exhibit A for why the United States needs to break its dependence on Middle Eastern oil\u2014and why building domestic supply chains for the batteries that power electric vehicles matters enormously. Yet the administration&#8217;s actions tell a different story.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In practice, federal policy has curbed wind and solar projects and rolled back electric vehicle and lithium battery subsidies. In a rare nod to cleaner energy, it has backed hard-rock lithium mining at Thacker Pass in Nevada\u2014going so far as to take a direct equity stake\u2014even as Indigenous and environmental groups continue to sound the alarm about the project\u2019s potential environmental impacts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Meanwhile, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0011916423008810\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">direct lithium extraction<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014a potentially <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/spectrum.ieee.org\/direct-lithium\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">cleaner approach<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u2014is downplayed and the one serious renewable geothermal-based <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/lithiumvalley.imperialcounty.org\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">direct lithium extraction effort<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the country, located in California&#8217;s Imperial Valley, remains pre-construction. <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">There is still <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.technologyreview.com\/2026\/01\/22\/1131563\/lithium-2026\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">not a single commercial direct lithium extraction operation in the United States<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. If energy security is the actual goal, current policy choices are steering off course.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Some headway is still being made, despite these Trumpian headwinds. Globally,<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/investingnews.com\/daily\/resource-investing\/battery-metals-investing\/lithium-investing\/lithium-forecast\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">lithium prices have been rising<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> after a brutal two-year slump, driven by growing demand from both EVs and a newer force: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.belfercenter.org\/research-analysis\/ai-data-centers-us-electric-grid\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">data centers with rising battery storage needs<\/span><\/a>.<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0Higher prices help the investment case for American lithium development. But market signals alone won&#8217;t build a just industry. That still requires deliberate choices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Power to the People?<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">One of the important recent developments in Lithium Valley, the southeast corner of California that hosts the Salton Sea and enough lithium reserves in its underground geothermal brine to convert the entire U.S. auto fleet to EVs, is the announcement by<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thinkgeoenergy.com\/ctr-enters-public-listing-to-advance-hells-kitchen-geothermal-and-lithium-project\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Controlled Thermal Resources (CTR) of a $4.7 billion agreement<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to take the company public on NASDAQ.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">CTR aims eventually to produce up to 650 megawatts of renewable geothermal power and 100,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate (the refined form in which lithium is commercially traded) annually from the same Salton Sea brine resource. The NASDAQ listing is intended to complete funding for Stage 1 construction, which could begin later this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notably, CTR&#8217;s current public pitch emphasizes geothermal energy\u2014specifically, power for AI data centers\u2014rather than lithium. CEO Rod Colwell has framed their project, located at a site eerily called Hell&#8217;s Kitchen, as a solution to one of the most significant infrastructure constraints of the moment: the demand for reliable, carbon-free baseload power to feed the AI boom.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Data center energy demand means real, near-term revenue. Lithium extraction from hot, chemically complex Salton Sea brines remains commercially unproven\u2014especially compared to lower-temperature brines in Arkansas&#8217;s Smackover formation, where<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/arkansasadvocate.com\/2025\/12\/01\/optimism-for-lithium-in-arkansas-is-running-high-even-as-challenges-for-industry-growth-remain\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">multiple projects are advancing with federal backing<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. But if geothermal energy for energy-hungry data centers becomes CTR&#8217;s primary revenue driver, who benefits?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Community Intelligence<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The nearby communities of Niland, Westmoreland, Calipatria, and Imperial\u2014all of whom were promised jobs, revenues, and more\u2014are already answering that question themselves. A proposed hyperscale AI data center near the city of Imperial ignited sustained community opposition.<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.kpbs.org\/news\/environment\/2026\/04\/07\/imperial-county-supervisors-clear-path-for-massive-data-center-complex-amid-fierce-opposition\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Imperial County&#8217;s Board of Supervisors voted<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to advance the project anyway.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Artificial intelligence proposals are now meeting community intelligence realities. Residents are raising legitimate concerns about a 950,000-square-foot computing warehouse that will consume millions of gallons of water daily from a <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/capitalandmain.com\/a-drying-colorado-river-threatens-imperial-valleys-future\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">declining Colorado River water source<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. This is in a desert valley that already struggles with some of California&#8217;s worst air quality and the ongoing environmental crisis of the receding Salton Sea. Organizers are now <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.kpbs.org\/news\/environment\/2026\/04\/03\/imperial-county-supervisors-to-hold-key-vote-on-controversial-data-center-project\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">mobilizing a recall of county supervisors supporting the project and a November ballot initiative<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to ban data centers from the county altogether.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The developer, Imperial Valley Computer Manufacturing, frames the project as an economic lifeline\u2014construction jobs, long-term employment, future tax revenue. Some labor voices agree. But as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/inewsource.org\/2026\/04\/08\/california-data-center-nimby-imperial-county\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">community members have made clear<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the question isn&#8217;t just whether the project creates jobs; it&#8217;s whether residents get to shape an industry that will transform their landscape for decades, or merely absorb its costs. &#8220;We&#8217;re not saying it doesn&#8217;t have opportunities,&#8221;\u00a0 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/inewsource.org\/2026\/04\/08\/california-data-center-nimby-imperial-county\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">said Gina Snow, a resident near the proposed site<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. &#8220;Let&#8217;s have a discussion regarding what those opportunities are.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">That&#8217;s precisely the spirit that a number of community organizations, including Comit\u00e9 C\u00edvico del Valle, Earthworks, and a coalition called\u00a0 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/valleunido.org\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Valle Unido por Beneficios Comunitarios<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> has been bringing to the broader lithium question\u2014pushing for\u00a0 <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ccvhealth.org\/reports\/the-devil-is-in-the-details\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Community Benefits Agreements<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> that would guarantee tangible returns to frontline communities across all major lithium and energy projects in the region. The data center fight makes their argument more urgent, not less.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h3><b>Steering Ahead<\/b><\/h3>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A year and a half after <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Charging Forward<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> was published, the world has changed in ways both predictable and jarring. Gas prices above $4 a gallon have made the economic case for EVs self-evident to millions of drivers who weren&#8217;t (and probably still aren\u2019t) thinking about climate at all. The AI boom has given geothermal power a new commercial rationale. Lithium prices are rising again, drawing investor interest back to the Salton Sea.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">But the fundamental question remains. The clean-energy transition is not a question of <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">whether<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">. It is a question of <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">where, how, and for whom.<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Will Imperial County&#8217;s communities get a genuine seat at the table as their landscape is again transformed by outside capital and national priorities? Will geothermal power for data centers deliver the broad community benefits that lithium was supposed to promise? Will California&#8217;s approach prove that energy development and environmental justice can coexist, or will it simply reproduce old extractive patterns in a new technological key?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Iran war, with all its horror and disruption, has made the stakes of getting this right undeniable. The case for domestic clean energy has never been easier to make. The harder work\u2014ensuring that this transition is built with communities rather than on top of them\u2014remains exactly what it was when we wrote the book.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">We&#8217;re still charging forward. But whether those most affected will be in the driver\u2019s seat still remains an open question.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">About the authors:<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Chris Benner is a professor at UC Santa Cruz and founding director of the Institute for Social Transformation. Manuel Pastor is a distinguished professor at the University of Southern California and director of the Equity Research Institute. They are co-authors of<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.chargingforwardbook.org\/\"> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Charging Forward: Lithium Valley, Electric Vehicles, and a Just Future<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Editor\u2019s note: The views expressed on the blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Equity Research Institute (ERI) or the University of Southern California (USC).<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n  \n      \n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-related-stories \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-related-stories\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--section-title\">\n\n    \n  <h2>\n          Explore other articles\n      <\/h2>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n                  <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/eri\/2023\/05\/02\/the-eri-team\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >Meet the ERI Team<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n              <article>\n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--cta-title\">\n\n    \n  <h3>\n          <a href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/eri\/2023\/06\/01\/welcome-eri-site-2023\/\" \n                        class=\"\" \n      >A new look for ERI&#8217;s website!<\/a>\n      <\/h3>\n\n\n<\/div>\n        <\/article>\n            <\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":20919,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[318,279,26],"tags":[154,319,390,18,285,47,393,351],"class_list":["post-20917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-charging-forward","category-ej","category-blog","tag-california","tag-charging-forward","tag-clean-energy","tag-climate-equity","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-environmental-justice","tag-imperial-county","tag-lithium-valley"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - 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