{"id":18863,"date":"2024-10-08T11:21:29","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T18:21:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/eri\/?p=18863"},"modified":"2024-10-08T14:03:10","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T21:03:10","slug":"rtnv-how-data-can-improve-the-political-and-civic-inclusion-of-new-americans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/eri\/2024\/10\/08\/rtnv-how-data-can-improve-the-political-and-civic-inclusion-of-new-americans\/","title":{"rendered":"Rock the Naturalized Vote: How Data Can Improve the Political and Civic Inclusion of New Americans"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Rock the Naturalized Vote: How Data Can Improve the Political and Civic Inclusion of New Americans<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n \n \n By<\/span>Dr. Thai V. Le (ERI Research Scientist), Dr. Manuel Pastor (ERI Director), and Justin Scoggins (ERI Senior Data Manager)<\/strong>\n \n October 8, 2024<\/span>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n <\/div><\/div>\n\n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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As hopeful candidates and campaigns in this upcoming election focus their <\/span>efforts to sway young voters<\/span><\/a>, there is another voting demographic who also has the potential to turn the tides in a particularly close election: <\/span>recently-naturalized citizens<\/span>,<\/span><\/a> or new Americans. During the 2020 election, <\/span>about 1 in 10 eligible voters were naturalized citizens\u2013more than 23 million<\/span><\/a>. Since the 2020 election, there are an estimated <\/span>3.5 million newly-naturalized voting-age adults<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Similar to other election years, this notable growth in the recently-naturalized population is in part due to the large number of eligible-to-naturalize immigrants hoping to cast their votes at the ballot box. What is also driving the growth in naturalizations is the invested resources the <\/span>Biden administration has put into addressing the backlog on citizenship applications that grew from the Trump administration and the COVID-19 pandemic<\/span><\/a>. With these resources, we are also seeing the <\/span>shortest processing times for citizenship applications in the recent decade<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Historically, <\/span>naturalized citizen voter turnout rates in recent elections have generally trailed those of U.S.-born voters<\/span><\/a> as engaging eligible naturalized citizen voters to show up to the polls has been a challenge. The climate around immigration, including <\/span>anti-immigrant narratives<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>discriminatory policies designed to make it more difficult for minorities to vote<\/span><\/a>, has deterred eligible immigrants from voting and <\/span>pushed pro-immigrant advocacy groups to their capacity addressing crisis after crisis threatening the livelihood of immigrant communities<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This year\u2019s election may be a different story. Naturalized citizens have the <\/span>power to shape election results, especially in key swing states, and may be more motivated to show up to the polls this year than previous elections with increasing concerns about the economy and rhetoric around immigration<\/span><\/a>. For those seeking to mobilize these voters to participate fully, tools that can help illustrate where newly naturalized voters live\u2014and what share they might be of the electorate\u2014can be useful.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The USC Equity Research Institute has long worked to develop data tools that can track the immigrant experience. Empowering and mobilizing all eligible voters, including naturalized citizens, to vote is essential in pursuing a democratic society and to hold elected officials accountable to their communities and constituents. Because of this, we have developed and updated a <\/span>mapping tool<\/span><\/a> to support organizations and advocates in their efforts to empower and mobilize recently-naturalized citizens.<\/span><\/p>\n

View the mapping tool<\/a><\/p>\n

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Case Examples<\/b><\/h2>\n

As <\/span>immigration continues to be a central policy issue in local and federal elections<\/span><\/a>, there remains a significant drive in ensuring naturalized citizens have their voices heard. Particularly for the recently naturalized, representing a new voting bloc whose impact has been less analyzed, they make up a significant share of eligible voters (i.e., the citizen voting age population, or CVAP) who can dramatically change political landscapes. Such a phenomenon\u2014in which naturalized voters who are sensitive to immigration issues and rhetoric make their voices heard at the ballot box and through on-the-ground advocacy\u2014helped to change the political and policy landscape in <\/span>California in the mid-1990s<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So what is the potential now? Altogether, naturalized citizens make up 10.1 percent of all potential voters in the United States. While all naturalized Americans merit outreach to ensure that they engage fully in our democracy, older naturalized citizens may already have set practices with regard to their civic participation. Of particular interest are recently naturalized voters who may need encouragement to embrace and build the habit of voting.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turning to that group, using data that captures roughly a nine-year snapshot of naturalizations from 2015 through 2023, we find that recently-naturalized citizens comprise 2.8 percent\u2014approximately 6.7 million potential voters\u2014of the CVAP in the United States. Although the recently-naturalized population is growing across the country, focused strategies and efforts to improve registration numbers <\/span>and<\/span><\/i> to mobilize this voting bloc in key \u201cswing\u201d states can have consequential outcomes for their immigrant communities and families. Understanding who the recently naturalized are in these key states, such as their cultural and language background, can better inform strategies that are more appropriate and effective, resulting in greater impact and outcomes.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The Recently-Naturalized in Arizona<\/b><\/h3>\n

In Arizona, a battleground state in the 2020 election, <\/span>Joe Biden narrowly defeated Donald Trump with just over 10,000 votes\u2013approximately 0.3 percent of the 3.4 million votes in the state<\/span><\/a>. In Arizona, there are nearly 465,000 naturalized eligible voters who make up approximately 8.6 percent of the CVAP. With close to 116,000, the recently naturalized (since 2015) comprise a quarter of all naturalized eligible voters in the state. This group of eligible naturalized voters are majority Latino (53 percent) and significantly from Mexico (46 percent).<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

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Arizona
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<\/td>\nNumber <\/b><\/td>\nAs % of CVAP<\/b><\/td>\nAs % of
\n<\/b>all naturalized<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Recently naturalized (since 2015)<\/span><\/td>\n115,742<\/span><\/td>\n2.1%<\/span><\/td>\n25%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Naturalized since 2005<\/span><\/td>\n246,709<\/span><\/td>\n4.6%<\/span><\/td>\n53%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
All naturalized<\/span><\/td>\n464,549<\/span><\/td>\n8.6%<\/span><\/td>\n100%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Characteristics of the recently naturalized population in Arizona<\/b><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Race\/ethnicity:<\/b><\/td>\nNumber<\/b><\/td>\nPercent<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
White<\/span><\/td>\n22,131<\/span><\/td>\n19%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Black<\/span><\/td>\n7,597<\/span><\/td>\n7%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Latino<\/span><\/td>\n61,763<\/span><\/td>\n53%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
AANHPI<\/span><\/td>\n22,216<\/span><\/td>\n19%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mixed\/other<\/span><\/td>\n2,035<\/span><\/td>\n2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total<\/td>\n115,742<\/td>\n100%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

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Country of origin (top ten):<\/b><\/td>\nNumber<\/b><\/td>\nPercent<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mexico<\/span><\/td>\n52,694<\/span><\/td>\n46%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Philippines<\/span><\/td>\n6,178<\/span><\/td>\n5%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Iraq<\/span><\/td>\n4,399<\/span><\/td>\n4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
India<\/span><\/td>\n4,200<\/span><\/td>\n4%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Canada<\/span><\/td>\n3,241<\/span><\/td>\n3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vietnam<\/span><\/td>\n3,157<\/span><\/td>\n3%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
China<\/span><\/td>\n2,197<\/span><\/td>\n2%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
England<\/span><\/td>\n1,470<\/span><\/td>\n1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Colombia<\/span><\/td>\n1,318<\/span><\/td>\n1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Nigeria<\/span><\/td>\n1,185<\/span><\/td>\n1%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Other<\/span><\/td>\n35,704<\/span><\/td>\n31%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total<\/span><\/td>\n115,742<\/span><\/td>\n100%<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Source: USC Equity Research Institute analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and IPUMS USA. See our interactive map page<\/a><\/strong> for more detail. Note: All numbers are estimated and subject to error. Figures may not sum to totals due to rounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n <\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n

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\nNew American Testimonial: How Amritha <\/b>Karthikeyan<\/b> Shows Up for the Community<\/b><\/h3>\n

Photos and testimonials courtesy of the National Partnership for New Americans\u2019 Naturalized and Ready to Vote Tour, 2024<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

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\u201cWhen I was in high school I became more involved in youth organizing and community work that advocated for environmental justice especially for those in marginalized communities. With the 2020 election coming up during my senior year, my peers and I felt worried about the future as we were just about to graduate. At the time I couldn\u2019t vote, so I was driven to help register my senior class to vote\u2014ensuring that their voices too could be amplified through their ballots. I was eagerly waiting for the opportunity to become a citizen so that I could show up for my community in a different way. Two years later, the long-awaited moment arrived. My parents and I became U.S. citizens as soon as we were eligible to do so. This was not just a change in legal status for us. It marked a profound shift in how we could contribute to the country that I had grown to call home. Now, I can vote in elections, sign petitions, travel abroad more easily, be considered for more grants, scholarships and jobs, and even run for office. My family and I voted together for the first time in the 2022 midterms. To other newly naturalized voters I encourage you to use the power you have as a citizen of this country to make sure your voice is heard and elect someone to represent you and your community\u2014but don’t stop there\u2014show up for your communities in other ways, especially for those who cannot yet vote, join a community organization and contact your elected representatives.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n \n