{"id":987,"date":"2017-12-13T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2017-12-13T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/?p=987"},"modified":"2024-06-18T19:07:36","modified_gmt":"2024-06-18T19:07:36","slug":"cfrs-preventive-priorities-survey-2018-and-karabakh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/2017\/12\/13\/cfrs-preventive-priorities-survey-2018-and-karabakh\/","title":{"rendered":"CFR\u2019s Preventive Priorities Survey 2018 and Karabakh"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--article-hero \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--article-hero\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n<div class=\"inner-wrapper\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--image\">\n\n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n    \n              \n      <img\n                            data-src=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/107\/2024\/01\/IAS-Karabakh-conflict-map-courtesy-of-the-Council-on-Foreign-Relations-680x432.jpeg\"\n                    data-sizes=\"(min-width:1200px) 75vw, (min-width:768px) 83vw, 100vw\"          class=\"lazyload\"\n        \n                  alt=\"Karabakh conflict map courtesy of the Council on Foreign Relations.\"\n        \n        \n                                      \/>\n\n    \n    \n  \n  \n\n<\/div>\n  \n      <div class=\"image-caption\">\n          \n<div class=\"f--field f--description\">\n\n    \n  <p>Karabakh conflict map courtesy of the Council on Foreign Relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n    <\/div>\n  \n  <div class=\"text-wrapper\">\n    \n              \n<div class=\"f--field f--page-title\">\n\n    \n  <h1>CFR\u2019s Preventive Priorities Survey 2018 and Karabakh<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n    \n    \n          <strong class=\"author-field\"><span >By<\/span>Emil Sanamyan<\/strong>\n    \n          <span class=\"post-date-field\">December 13, 2017<\/span>\n      <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--social-share \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--social-share\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n  <div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n    <span class=\"a2a_kit a2a_kit_size_32 addtoany_list\" style=\"line-height: 32px;\">\n      <span class=\"title\">\n        Share\n      <\/span>\n                        <a class=\"a2a_button_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"\/#copy_link\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" title=\"Link\">\n            <span class=\"a2a_svg a2a_s__default a2a_s_copy_link\">\n              <svg height=\"19\" viewBox=\"0 0 19 19\" width=\"19\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m7.43475275 9.52380952-2.17490843 2.26076008c-1.08745421 1.058837-1.68841575 2.518315-1.68841575 4.0350275 0 1.5167124.60096154 2.9475732 1.68841575 4.0350274 1.058837 1.0874543 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xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\"><path d=\"m8.14285714 9.42857143c-.17142857 0-.34285714 0-.51428571.08571428l7.28571427 6.34285719c.3428572.2571428.6857143.2571428.9428572 0l7.2857142-6.34285719c-.0857142-.08571428-.2571428-.08571428-.4285714-.08571428zm-1.28571428 1.11428567v.1714286 8.5714286c0 .6857143.6 1.2857143 1.28571428 1.2857143h14.57142856c.6857143 0 1.2857143-.6 1.2857143-1.2857143v-8.5714286c0-.0857143 0-.0857143 0-.1714286l-7.2 6.3428572c-.7714286.6857143-1.8857143.6857143-2.6571429 0z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\" transform=\"translate(-6 -9)\"\/><\/svg>\n            <\/span>\n            <span class=\"a2a_label visually-hidden\">Email<\/span>\n          <\/a>\n                  <\/span>\n  <\/div>\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n \n\n\n\n  \n    \n\n\n\n\n\n\n<div\n  class=\"cc--component-container cc--rich-text \"\n\n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  \n  >\n  <div class=\"c--component c--rich-text\"\n    \n      >\n\n    \n      \n<div class=\"f--field f--wysiwyg\">\n\n    \n  <p>The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/report\/preventive-priorities-survey-2018\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">has published<\/a>\u00a0its Preventive Priorities Survey: 2018, once again classifying the Karabakh conflict as being of low priority for the United States, while also\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/interactives\/global-conflict-tracker?utm_medium=email&amp;utm_source=news_release&amp;utm_content=120717&amp;sp_mid=55527761&amp;sp_rid=bXd1ZWxsbmVyQGNmci5vcmcS1#!\/conflict\/nagorno-karabakh-conflict\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">describing\u00a0<\/a>its status as \u201cworsening.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>In an\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/expert-brief\/simmering-crisis-over-nagorno-karabakh\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">analysis published in September<\/a>, former U.S. envoy for Karabakh Carey Cavanaugh and CFR\u2019s Center for Preventive Action director Paul Stares argued that \u201ctalks later this year between President Serzh Sargsyan and President Ilham Aliyev can reduce the\u00a0likelihood of renewed armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.\u201d Cavanaugh and Stares also called for relaunch of Armenian-Azerbaijan track II contacts that have been mostly suspended in recent years.<\/p>\n<p>Writing in February, Cavanaugh\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/shoogamarketing.com\/usc\/focus-on-karabakh\/highlight\/former-envoy-penalties-needed-party-violating-karabakh-ceasefire\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">warned<\/a>\u00a0that there was a high likelihood of a serious escalation in fighting and urged the mediators to press for implementation of 2016 agreements on cease-fire strengthening mechanisms and consider imposing sanctions for violations of cease-fire.<\/p>\n<p>While security mechanisms have not been implemented and threat of escalation is ever present, Aliyev\u2019s as well as Sargsyan\u2019s preference for a pause in military activities along the Line of Contact, notably seen since in reduction in tensions since August 2017, have made\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/shoogamarketing.com\/usc\/focus-on-karabakh\/highlight\/analysis-make-fresh-diplomatic-round-karabakh\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">current diplomatic round <\/a>possible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n  <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":139,"featured_media":988,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-987","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-institute-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.1.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>CFR\u2019s Preventive Priorities Survey 2018 and Karabakh<\/title>\n<meta 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