{"id":1294,"date":"2019-02-14T21:31:00","date_gmt":"2019-02-14T21:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/?p=1294"},"modified":"2024-07-09T17:37:19","modified_gmt":"2024-07-09T17:37:19","slug":"qa-with-emil-sanamyan-on-prospects-for-genuine-peace-process","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/2019\/02\/14\/qa-with-emil-sanamyan-on-prospects-for-genuine-peace-process\/","title":{"rendered":"Q&A With Emil Sanamyan on Prospects for Genuine Peace Process"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Ilham Aliyev visits a military base near Karabakh on Feb. 13, 2019. Official photo<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

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Q&A With Emil Sanamyan on Prospects for Genuine Peace Process<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n \n \n By<\/span>Stella Mehrabekyan<\/strong>\n \n February 14, 2019<\/span>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n <\/div><\/div>\n\n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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The interview with\u00a0CivilNet\u2019s\u00a0<\/a>Stella Mehrabekyan about the factors that will influence potential negotiations.<\/p>\n

Stella Mehrabekyan:\u00a0<\/strong>The rhetoric of war was changed to a rhetoric of peace in recent months between Armenia and Azerbaijan. How justified are these expectations? How can Baku and Yerevan manage high expectations with the realities on the ground?<\/p>\n

Emil Sanamyan:<\/strong>\u00a0While in fact there has been reduction of militant rhetoric, I don\u2019t see much peace rhetoric at all. The H1 program about Tavush border villages or Turan news agency\u2019s reporting from Armenia are in the realm of token gestures, \u201ctesting the waters,\u201d rather than serious policy changes. I don\u2019t see much in the way of \u201chigh expectations\u201d either. The Aliyev regime said that it is giving Pashinyan government a \u201cchance\u201d to take a more conciliatory position on Karabakh than Sargsyan government had. Such expectations \u2013 if they in fact exist \u2013 appear groundless. I would also note that relaxation of military tensions occurred before the change of government in Armenia, still in 2017. In other words, after four years of consistent military pressure, the Aliyev regime decided to take a pause and re-group. This is what is continuing now, but it does not preclude fresh escalations.<\/p>\n

SM:<\/strong>\u00a0The Madrid principles are criticized both in Armenia and Azerbaijan. However there are certain principles over which the parties have been negotiating since 1994. Do you think it\u2019s realistic that negotiations can start from scratch? If so, what can be changed on the table and who can benefit more?<\/p>\n

ES:<\/strong>\u00a0The Madrid Principles were just the latest iteration of a peace process that is nearly 30 years old. There has always been continuity between different stages of negotiations, but there have been changes as well. If in 1991 Armenia agreed to \u201chigh autonomous status\u201d for Karabakh inside Azerbaijan, the Karabakh war changed that approach and by 1997, Armenia could no longer agree to such a status, at least not publicly. And if in 2001 the Armenian side was ready to hand over most of the former Azerbaijani districts around Nagorno Karabakh\u2019s Soviet-era borders in exchange for Karabakh and Lachin corridor being recognized as part of Armenia, a solution like that is seen as controversial today, particularly with regard to Kelbajar. I think after the April 2016 war any territorial compromise will be a non-starter until there is a genuine peace process in place. Can there be a genuine peace process with the Aliyev regime? I am not sure that is possible, but I am certain there must be one with Azerbaijan. So, if that regime is unable or unwilling, Armenian authorities could look for alternative interlocutors among the Azerbaijani influence class, particularly the exiled or Diaspora communities.<\/p>\n

SM:<\/strong>\u00a0Since assuming the post of Armenia\u2019s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly stated that he has no right to negotiate on behalf of the people of Artsakh, since he has not been elected by them. Pashinyan says he sees \u201cboth very specific forms and methods on how Karabakh can engage in negotiations.\u201d To what extent can this change of discourse be effective?<\/p>\n

ES:<\/strong>\u00a0I am skeptical of this approach. The only way Azerbaijani leaders ever agreed to talk to Artsakh leaders was when they were under military pressure, this is why Heydar Aliyev met with Robert Kocharyan, then leader of NKR, in 1993. Yes, indeed, Karabakh has its own political system and that should be considered. But the problem here is not the Armenian leader representing Karabakh interests \u2013 because they are not all that distinct from Armenia\u2019s interests \u2013 but Armenian citizens in Karabakh being shut out of Armenian political system. Today, Armenia and Artsakh are one cultural, economic and security space, the fact that they have separate political systems is an unnatural condition that should be mended.<\/p>\n

SM:<\/strong>\u00a0How would you evaluate the recent statements of the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, saying that in the world, the principle of \u201cthe one who has the power is right\u201d is prevalent; this coming in a period of time, when there are talks of relative calm, a favorable atmosphere in the negotiation process and preparing the two nations for peace.<\/p>\n

ES:<\/strong>\u00a0There is indeed relative calm that has been in place since the fall of 2017. \u00a0However, beyond that and a few statements, conditions of confrontation have not given way to a genuine peace process. \u201cMight makes right\u201d is the assumption that most countries embrace as they operate in the world. Dictatorial regimes like Aliyev\u2019s also use this same assumption in their domestic affairs. There are more than 100 political prisoners in that country, because the regime believes that it can exercise power over these people and not bear substantial consequences, making this systemic abuse a norm rather than an aberration. We know from history that all such regimes are eventually overthrown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":139,"featured_media":1297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1294","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-focus-on-karabakh"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nQ&A With Emil Sanamyan on Prospects for Genuine Peace Process<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/2019\/02\/14\/qa-with-emil-sanamyan-on-prospects-for-genuine-peace-process\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Q&A With Emil Sanamyan on Prospects for Genuine Peace Process - 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