{"id":1152,"date":"2018-07-26T19:16:00","date_gmt":"2018-07-26T19:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/?p=1152"},"modified":"2024-07-10T16:57:42","modified_gmt":"2024-07-10T16:57:42","slug":"armenian-azerbaijani-officials-raise-stakes-in-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/2018\/07\/26\/armenian-azerbaijani-officials-raise-stakes-in-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"Armenian, Azerbaijani Officials Raise Stakes in Conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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Anna Hakobyan and Nikol Pashinyan with their son Ashot, who is now doing military service in Nagorno Karabakh. Image courtesy www.PrimeMinister.am<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n \n

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Armenian, Azerbaijani Officials Raise Stakes in Conflict<\/h1>\n\n\n<\/div>\n \n \n By<\/span>Emil Sanamyan<\/strong>\n \n July 26, 2018<\/span>\n <\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n <\/div><\/div>\n\n \n \n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
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A key takeaway that the Armenian military learned from April 2016 fighting is that \u201cAzerbaijan cannot have a monopoly on escalation,\u201d Armenia\u2019s defense minister David Tonoyan said in an\u00a0interview<\/a>\u00a0last Sunday. Tonoyan suggested that should Azerbaijan launch another attack, the Armenian response would not be as limited as it was two years ago.<\/p>\n

Two days later, responding to press questions, Karabakh Defense Army commander Gen. Levon Mnatsakanyan confirmed that \u201cin case of necessity\u201d his forces\u00a0could launch attacks on Azerbaijan\u2019s energy infrastructure<\/a>, including its largest power plant in Mingechaur.<\/p>\n

In response, Azerbaijan\u2019s defense ministry issued a\u00a0statement\u00a0<\/a>saying that \u201cthere are objects in Armenia, after the destruction of which there will be no life in these territories for centuries,\u201d a cryptic threat against the Metsamor nuclear power plant that, if carried out, could cause a radiation fallout. The LORA missile system that\u00a0Azerbaijan recently bought from Israel<\/a>\u00a0are believed to have the range to reach Metsamor, located more than 150 kilometers from mainland Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n

These threats are not new. Prior to April 2016, to deter Azerbaijan\u2019s aggression the Armenian side also warned of a strong response. And during the April fighting, after Azerbaijan threatened missile attacks against population centers, such as Stepanakert, the Armenian side said it would retaliate against Azerbaijan\u2019s energy infrastructure, including in Mingechaur and the oil terminal in Sangachali, near Baku. The sides returned to cease-fire before either threat could be carried out.<\/p>\n

Metsamor was also threatened before. Writing in 2009, a commentator for the official Azerbaijani news agency Azertag Vugar Seyidov suggested that to deter a potential attack on Azerbaijan\u2019s energy infrastructure \u201cwe should tell Armenians that our kamikaze pilots would do everything to make Chernobyl [site of the 1986 nuclear disaster] look like paradise compared to Metsamor.\u201d Similar threats were published by a\u00a0news site<\/a>\u00a0controlled by the Azerbaijani president\u2019s office last year.<\/p>\n

(And yet, the most outrageous threat to match is still that by Abulfaz Elchibey\u2019s interior minister Iskander Hamidov, who said in 1992 that unless Armenians surrender, he would drop nuclear bombs on Stepanakert and Yerevan. He didn\u2019t have any bombs, but ironically, a quarter century later the main threat against Azerbaijan\u2019s energy infrastructure comes from Armenia\u2019s Russian-made missile called\u00a0Iskander<\/em>.)<\/p>\n

Frontline escalations as politics by other means<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the past decade, the Aliyev regime pursued three key goals in the military conflict with Armenia: 1) to regularly escalate fighting to kill Armenian soldiers and make territorial advances no matter how modest; 2) to keep operations from expanding and risk a full-blown war and potential third-party involvement; and 3) to use the on the ground pressure and threat of wider conflict to push for unilateral Armenian compromises in negotiations. This approach also helped Aliyev offset domestic pressures.<\/p>\n

While the first two goals were mostly accomplished, the third was not. And in April 2016, this policy backfired in two key respects. First, Azerbaijan\u2019s main escalation instrument \u2013 its Turkish and Western-trained special forces \u2013 suffered serious casualties. And, second, mediators\u2019 focus shifted from conflict resolution to cease-fire strengthening mechanisms to prevent escalations. Subsequently, from June 2016 Azerbaijan moved to de-escalate frontline tensions.<\/p>\n

In February 2017, when the Azerbaijani military command attempted to use the old tactic of special forces attacks, they discovered it no longer worked because of the video observation equipment the Armenian side installed along the Line of Contact. In July 2017, Azerbaijan tried to use new technology \u2013 kamikaze drones \u2013 to attack Armenian frontline positions, but the attack was not successful. Additionally, because personnel from Israel\u2019s Aeronautics company protested after they were told to conduct the attack, this led to publicity in Israel and\u00a0the suspension of Aeronautics license to sell to Azerbaijan<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While a hiatus in fighting has now held for over a year, Azerbaijan continued to rearm and has been likely considering various military options to renew its pressure on Armenia. Meantime, last spring\u2019s unexpected change of government in Armenia has added uncertainty in two key respects.<\/p>\n

First, Aliyev must be hoping that Pashinyan\u2019s rise to power through popular protests would lead to friction with the Russian leader Vladimir Putin. So far, there are no obvious signs of such friction, aside from some of the Russian and Armenian commentators exchanging indignant commentaries over Russian weapons sales to Azerbaijan or the new Armenian leader\u2019s suspected pro-Western leanings. Speaking in Yerevan, Russian expert\u00a0Sergey Markedonov argued\u00a0<\/a>that all that Russian leaders want to see from Armenia is more certainty and predictability.<\/p>\n

Second, when it comes to \u201cmonopoly on escalations,\u201d it is unclear to what extent Nikol Pashinyan\u2019s reaction may be different from Serzh Sargsyan\u2019s should it come to new military escalations. After Azerbaijan\u2019s\u00a0re-deployment in Nakhichevan\u00a0<\/a>in May it was not very different, but that was only days after Pashinyan was elected into office.<\/p>\n

On diplomatic front, Pashinyan is beginning to challenge Aliyev in ways that Sargsyan did not. Asked in an interview this week about his son now serving in Karabakh, Armenia\u2019s prime minister said that he\u00a0would be happy to see Aliyev\u2019s son serve on Karabakh frontline as well<\/a>, as that would be a sign of Azerbaijan\u2019s leader having a personal stake in peace.<\/p>\n

\u201cCertainly, I don\u2019t want a war, in which my son, sons of my compatriots or, for that matter, sons of regular Azerbaijani people could die,\u201d Pashinyan said. \u201cAt the same time, [my son\u2019s service in Karabakh] means that we are ready to sacrifice anything to defend our people.\u201d<\/p>\n

The article was first\u00a0published by CivilNet<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/div>\n\n\n <\/div><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":139,"featured_media":1153,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1152","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-focus-on-karabakh"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nArmenian, Azerbaijani Officials Raise Stakes in Conflict<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/dornsife.usc.edu\/armenian\/2018\/07\/26\/armenian-azerbaijani-officials-raise-stakes-in-conflict\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Armenian, Azerbaijani Officials Raise Stakes in Conflict - 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